Pick favored Gerrit Cole and Yankees to bounce back against Guardians

When: Tuesday, May 2 at 7:05 PM ET
Who: Guardians at Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole and Tanner Bibee
Where: Yankee Stadium in New York, New York

The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees will continue their series Tuesday evening. The Guardians had an incredible comeback win in the 9th inning to defeat the Yankees 3-2 yesterday.

Before continuing, we must advise you to check out our MLB Betting Guide, which will help you prepare for any MLB props you may be interested in.

The Yankees are in a slump right now losing 7 of their last 10 games. On the other hand, the Guardians were also slumping losing 6 of 10 before the comeback win yesterday.

Game Preview

Let's take a closer look at this matchup between the Guardians and the Yankees. The Yankees are sending out ace pitcher Gerrit Cole on the mound Tuesday, while the Guardians are sending out Tanner Bibee.

All aboard the Cole Train! @boblorenz and @JackCurryYES preview tomorrow's pitching matchup. #YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/kGEsZTTCAL

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) May 2, 2023

Despite the Yankee's struggles, Cole has been a lone bright spot for the team, posting a 5-0 record. Tanner Bibee is also unbeaten as a starter, recording a victory in his only start last week against the Rockies.

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Pitching Props

It's no secret that Gerrit Cole has been a strikeout machine throughout his career, but recent trends suggest he might be hitting a bit of a slump when it comes to racking up those Ks.

Strikeouts
Cole O 6.5	-105	-105	-110
Cole U 6.5	-120	-115	-115

As the Yankees are set to face the Cleveland Guardians, we're honing in on Cole's performance and why we believe the under on his 6.5 pitching-strikeouts line is the smart play in this game.

First off, let's talk about Cole's overall performance this season. He's currently averaging 7.78 strikeouts per game, with a higher rate at home (8.39) than on the road (7.17). While these numbers might seem impressive at first glance, a closer look reveals some interesting trends.

Over the last 20 games, Cole has averaged 8.15 strikeouts, managing to exceed 6.5 strikeouts in 15 of those games. Narrowing it down further, in the last 10 games, his average dips slightly to 8.0 strikeouts, but he still managed to pass the 6.5 mark in 8 games.

However, things get more concerning when we analyze his last 5 games, where Cole's average drops to 7.2 strikeouts and he only surpassed 6.5 strikeouts in 4 games.

So, what does this mean for tonight's matchup? The downward trend in Cole's strikeouts over the last 5 games is a red flag for those considering taking the over on his 6.5 line.

Gerrit Cole, Filthy 88mph Changeup...and Sword. ⚔️

6th K pic.twitter.com/LTv79OmmuE

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 28, 2023

While he's still a force to be reckoned with on the mound, recent performances suggest that he's not quite at the top of his game when it comes to racking up those strikeouts.

Add in the fact that the Yankees are favored at -163 on the money line, and it's clear that the under on Cole's strikeouts is the pick in this game.

Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 Strikeouts

-115

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Total Runs

In a game in which both teams are struggling it makes sense for the oddsmakers to set a total at 7 runs. It does feel low, but considering the teams, it feels fair.

Total Runs
Over 7 Runs	-110	-110	-120
Under 7 Runs	+105	-110	-100

With that being said, I don't feel confident in betting on these teams to go under this total. I would recommend betting on the Over in this game. It feels like the Yankees win this game 5-3.

Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees To score less than 7 Runs

-110

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Money Line

Let's take a look at some money line odds since we've determined it should be a higher-scoring game. Both of these teams are not playing good baseball right now.

However, I know what you're thinking: "But the Yankees' offense has been struggling too!" Yes, they only scored six runs in their four-game series against the Rangers, but that's exactly why they're due for a win.

Baseball is a game of streaks, and it's only a matter of time before the Yankees' bats wake up and remind everyone why they were once considered a powerhouse in the American League.

Let's not forget that the Guardians are dealing with injuries of their own. Key players like Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, and Sam Hentges are all out, and their absence will undoubtedly have an impact on the game.

The Yankees are also dealing with injuries, but they have the depth and talent to overcome these challenges.

For those reasons, I would recommend betting on the Yankees on the money line at -163 odds.

New York Yankees To win game

-163

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