How Close was Minnesota Sports Betting Legalization?

The push to legalize Minnesota sports betting failed yet again this year. But could the next piece of legislation likely to come down in 2025 be successful? In fact, could it be a lock?

Skeptics won’t bother answering that question. At minimum, they’ll treat any optimism by ingesting a metric ton of salt. And that is fair. Initiatives that would have legalized sports betting in Minnesota have now flopped on multiple occasions. Each time, officials who supported proposals have come out feeling good about “next year’s chances.” And yet, once next year rolls around, the newest piece of legislation winds up flopping, too.

This naturally raises the question: Why should this time be any different? Why should we believe Minnesota sports betting should be legalized in 2025? What about this year’s failure actually hints at future success?

Sponsors of the 2024 Minnesota Sports Betting Bill Believe Approval Would Be a Formality If They Had More Time

Roughly two months ago, the most recent bill to legalize Minnesota sports betting officially failed. No singular factor apparently undermined its livelihood. It was instead a myriad of issues. These included Senator Nicole Mitchell’s bizarre arrest, disagreements over horse track betting, an amendment that banned live sports wagering and a smattering of other disagreements.

Reading between the lines, it seems like the 11th hour ban on live sports betting in Minnesota derailed the proposal more than anything. Those wagers project to be huge moneymakers as the popularity of prop bets at the top online sportsbooks in the United States continues to grow. Removing them from the equation would limit earning potentials at the online sportsbook, brick-and-mortar sportsbook and state tax revenue levels.

However, despite these setbacks, some those pushing the bill are maintaining it was basically on the right track. In fact, a handful of key stakeholders believe it would have been successful with more time. As the Minnesota Post’s Peter Callaghan wrote:

“The bipartisan sports betting mavens—Rep. Takbe, Rep. Stephenson, Rep. Garofalo and Sen. Miller—in rotunda just now. Said sports betting has a framework of a deal, [and] has never been closer to agreement, but they'll likely run out of time before midnight. ‘I think if we had another 48 hours, I think we could do this,” said GOP Rep. Pat Garofalo of Farmington. “I sincerely mean that. We really could.”

As far as failures go, this all sounds positive on the surface. It’s also cryptic. What does “framework of a deal” actually mean? And if they only needed another 48 hours to ratify a Minnesota sports betting agreement, why did this fail in the first place?

Other Legislative Matters Appear to Have Taken Priority Over Sports Wagering Bill

Exact details on the final structure of a Minnesota sports betting bill have yet to be released or described. But officials have tipped their hand to an extent, hinting that other issues took precedence. As Callaghan went on to write:

“The issue likely got caught up in end-of-session politics, however, because it was one of just a few — along with a bonding bill and perhaps the Uber-Lyft bill — that might have required GOP votes, and leadership did not want to release it until a broader agreement was reached. Garofalo hinted at that Sunday when he said: ‘The reality is, factors that are beyond the authors’ control, factors that are beyond the stakeholders. Those were really the things that have put us in a position where it looks like it’s not gonna happen.’”

To be sure, this version of events is easy to buy. For Minnesota specifically, the DFL party has always placed more emphasis on sports betting than the GOP. The latter definitely could have devoted most of their attention to issues they deemed more pressing.

Should We Categorize the Chances of Minnesota Sports Betting in 2025 as ‘Likely?’

Frankly, we can’t go this far. We’ve seen too much vacillation on the Minnesota sports betting front to presume it will be successful in 2025.

But this isn’t meant to rain on anyone else’s optimism. On the contrary, in the aftermath of everything, there’s no denying this latest attempt came close. As many have already stated, this year’s Minnesota sports betting bill generated more bi-partisan support than any other. That’s a big deal. It’s an even bigger deal if reports of the initiative falling one GOP vote shy of ratification are true. That lays a promising groundwork for next year’s (presumed) round of negotiations.

What’s more, the biggest issue from 2023 has also made progress. Back then, the absence from racetracks from the Minnesota sports betting pool prompted division that capsized the entire effort. Per multiple outlets, this is apparently no longer the case. It doesn’t sound like tribes are suddenly okay allowing racetracks to offer sports betting. So, to that end, we’re not sure how the roadblock was removed. But officials sound like they found a happy medium for tribes and racetracks. It likely comes in the form of elevated tax-revenue compensation for the latter. But again, we can’t be sure.

Thrown all together, these tidbits will imbue Minnesota sports betting supporters with hope ahead of 2025. That is perfectly fine. It might even turn out to be the right call. However, until a sports betting bill makes it through both the House and Senate in the same session, it’s smart to digest all servings of optimism with a side of cautious skepticism.

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