Optimove Projections Suggest Massachusetts May Set Recording for NFL Betting in 2024 Season

Could Massachusetts set a record for NFL betting during the 2024 season? The latest projections from Optimove suggest that might be the case.

This forecast comes in advance of Week 1 for the 2024 NFL season. Its provider, Optimove, is a privately held company that uses “algorithmic optimization” as well as its Customer Data Platform, to predict spending and trendlines. In this case, they helped author the 2024-2025 Consumer Report on NFL Wagering Intentions. This is basically a breakdown on what individual and national markets can expect from larger NFL betting trends.

Based on the latest report, betting on the NFL in Massachusetts stands to increase a great deal.

NFL Betting Report Suggests the National Handle for Football Could Reach All-Time Highs

As part of their NFL betting report, Optimove polled 356 United States citizens aged 21 or older, with household incomes that exceed $75,000 on an annual basis. The results of this survey are pretty staggering.

T.J. McBride of PlayMA dug into the results below:

“The Optimove report had many takeaways, but the sheer increase in betting frequency was impossible to overlook. Of the 356 respondents to the survey, 84% said they ‘definitely will’ bet on football this season while 71% of those bettors claimed they will bet at least once per week. This betting frequency has grown by 21% in two years. That’s compared to data from Optimove’s 2022 survey in which 63% said they ‘definitely will’ bet on football that season.”

To be sure, a 356-person survey isn’t necessarily representative of the entire population, whether it’s in Massachusetts or the United States in general. Still, the results do keep in theme with a larger trend.

Betting with online sportsbooks in the United States has never been more popular. More states have introduced it over the years, and the ease of access has led to exponential betting-handle growth. Many argue that something will eventually give. After all, there are not an infinite number of bettors on the planet. This industry has a cap.

At the same time, it doesn’t appear that sports betting in the United States is anywhere near its max. For starters, the entire country hasn’t yet legalized it. Sports betting is currently allowed in some form throughout 38 states as well as Washington D.C. The market can still technically grow. 

Beyond that, the chance to bet on sports remains relatively novel. Legal sports betting in the United States only became possible in 2018. And in places like Massachusetts, it has been live for only a couple of years.

Massachusetts Sports Betting is on the Rise

Speaking of The Bay State, they continue to see year-over-year growth in the sports betting industry. As McBridge wrote:

“There is also no denying that Massachusetts sports betting frequency will increase when the NFL season kicks off. In Massachusetts last year, sports betting handle grew by a massive 62.7% from August to September, when the NFL season began. Experts expect a similar jump in 2024 as well.”

Certain analysts wonder whether these projections are too ambitious. Specifically, they think the in-market New England Patriots won’t be good enough to invite as much interest in NFL betting.

Perhaps that proves accurate. We’re assuming it doesn’t. More than any other market, NFL betting appeals to fans on a league-wide level. The scarcity of product, in particular, creates heightened interest. Teams only play 17 games. Compare that to the 82 games played in the NBA and NHL or the 162 games played by Major League Baseball. The end result of every NFL contest matters a great deal. And when the stakes are constantly high, it strikes a cord among sports bettors. 

This says nothing of betting on the NFL playoffs. Where the NBA, NHL and MLB postseasons consist of entire series, the football playoffs are win or go home. That’s why betting on the NFL postseason can often drive bonkers volume over a short period of time.

Projected Uptick in NFL Gambling Has Massachusetts Thinking About Gambling Minutes

As we’ve covered in this space before, regulators overseeing sports betting in Massachusetts have been pushing for sportsbooks to collaborate on gambling limits. While the projected uptick in NFL betting alone isn’t responsible, it’s certainly among the driving forces. 

The concern is warranted. When sports betting markets debut, there is a proven increase in problem gambling reports. It’s a similar story when individual markets begin to ascend. The more action taking place, the greater the risk for problematic gambling habits to develop. 

Somewhat fortunately, the Optimove NFL betting data suggests sports bettors are more keen on putting their own restrictions in place. Among the 356 respondents to the poll, around 90 percent said they plan to set a budget for each week or the entire NFL season. That’s a great sign. On the not so bright side, nearly two-thirds are respondents “admitted to betting more than they could afford or had planned to lose.”

It doesn’t seem like the NFL report delves into specifics. Are these losses driven by excitement over the football season starting? Or by chasing after losses? Some experts still believe advertising practices in the sports betting industry skew towards predatory. That’s why marketing ploys as well as individual gambling limits are seemingly becoming more of a priority.

Something obviously needs to be done. But this isn’t specific to NFL betting in Massachusetts. It’s an industry-wide topic that will hopefully get better over time. And if Massachusetts NFL betting hits a new record, you better believe it’ll be subject of intense discussion at the next round of legislative meetings in 2025.

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