Max Verstappen still heavily favored for Japanese Grand Prix after rare failure in Melbourne

Max Verstappen is looking to bounce back from a rare failure when the F1 roadshow heads to Asia for the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix. The triple-world champion is the favorite to win the race, and in our latest Formula 1 betting picks, we tell you if he will do it.

What: 2024 Japanese Grand Prix - Round 4
Where: Suzuka International Racing Course, Suzuka, Japan
When: Sunday, April 7th, 2024
Time: 1 a.m ET
Laps: 53
Track Length: 5.278 km
Race Distance: 307.471 km

The F1 paddock was given a glimmer of hope that all is not lost in the 2024 Drivers’ Championship, with Max Verstappen’s Red Bull returning to the pits after only four laps of the Australian Grand Prix, with smoke coming out of the back of the car.

This wasn’t supposed to happen. The Red Bull is too reliable.

A nightmare Australian Grand Prix for Max Verstappen as he's forced to retire after an issue with his Red Bull! 😲 pic.twitter.com/mGCzzgdW9R

— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) March 24, 2024

So after winning the opening two rounds, Max Verstappen not only didn’t win in Australia, he didn’t even score a point. And with the Red Bull not even lasting five laps, are there now any doubts starting to creep in that this season won’t be as much of a walk in the park as 2023 was?

To pour a bit of cold water over that theory, Sergio Perez did finish the race in the second Red Bull. The Mexican driver was never in contention to win the race, but he did finish in fifth place, albeit nearly a full minute behind the winning Ferrari of Carlos Sainz. So it's not like the whole team failed at the Albert Park Circuit.

Who is the favorite to win the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix?

Well, it looks pretty clear that the bookmakers think Verstappen’s Australian Grand Prix failure was a one-off incident. That theory is backed up by Perez finishing in fifth place. And, to further underline that opinion, the bookmakers make Max Verstappen -500 to win the Japanese Grand Prix.

Verstappen went into the race in Australia slated at -500 to win. This was his shortest price of the season after opening up at -325 to win in Bahrain and at -375 to win in Saudi Arabia. So to see him at the same odds to win at Suzuka tells us all we need to know.

Behind Verstappen in the betting is his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez at +1100. Perez has seen his odds of winning lengthen. He was +800 to win in Australia in the last race.

Next in the betting comes the Ferraris of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, both at +1600. Sainz was a convincing winner in Melbourne. And this after recovering from surgery to remove his appendix just days earlier.

Also performing well in Melbourne was the McLaren team. Team No.1, Lando Norris (+2500), benefitted from team orders, as he was let through by teammate Oscar Piastri (+3300). That wasn’t what the Aussie crowd wanted to see, but Norris showed his team was correct, as he went on to finish in 3rd place, nearly 30 seconds ahead of his Aussie teammate.

McLaren finished 3rd and 4th in Melbourne and will head to Japan in good form. The team also enjoyed their time at this circuit in 2023, with Norris and Piastri finishing on the podium behind eventual winner Max Verstappen.

Full odds on the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix are available on our F1 odds table. For more information about the bookmakers we use, please check out our betting bonuses and promotions page.

Betting to win the 2024 Drivers’ Championship

Max Verstappen’s shock retirement at the Australian Grand Prix hasn’t made much difference in the betting to win the 2024 Drivers’ Championship. The latest Formula 1 betting online odds on Verstappen to win the championship are -1000.

His closest rival is teammate Sergio Perez at +1600, with Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz priced up at +2000. Sainz is a big mover on the back of his win in Melbourne.

In the betting to win the Drivers’ Championship without Verstappen, Perez still leads the way at -150. Leclerc is second in the betting at +350. Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz have seen their odds slashed to +650 and +700, respectively. And how about this, Lewis Hamilton is +3300.

Our 2024 Japanese Grand Prix betting picks

We are very reluctant to back Max Verstappen at -500, and why wouldn’t we be? Okay, normal service is likely to resume in Japan, with the Dutchman winning. But the odds are just too short. And there is an element of doubt about things after Melbourne.

Instead, we are going to back Lando Norris for a podium finish. The McLarens finished two and three in Suzuka in 2023. And as they showed in Melbourne, they are in good form.

Lando Norris Top Three Finish at 2024 Japanese Grand Prix

+175

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And for our pick to win the race, we are going for anybody in the field against Max Verstappen at +350. Both picks are good prices and make more sense as things stand.

Anybody other than Verstappen To Win The 2024 Japanese Grand Prix

+350

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