Lando Norris favored for third F1 win of the season at Monza

Lando Norris is the favorite to win the 2024 Italian Grand Prix. The McLaren driver dished out an almighty beating to Max Verstappen in the Dutch Grand Prix last weekend. But Verstappen is a triple-world champion. He will be determined to fight back, and in our latest Formula 1 betting picks, we tell you if he can gain revenge when the two clash at Monza this weekend.

What: Italian Grand Prix 2024 - Round 16
Where: Autodromo Nazionale Monza, Italy
When: Sunday, September 1st, 2024
Time: 9 a.m ET
Laps: 53
Track Length: 5.793 km
Race Distance: 306.72 km

Norris and McLaren dominate Round 15 in the Netherlands

McLaren looked like the team with the momentum going into the second half of the F1 season.

There was still an element of doubt about that theory ahead of last Sunday’s Dutch Grand Prix. But after the race had finished, all the doubts had disappeared.

Lando Norris won the pole position. He was a breathtaking 0.356 of a second quicker than anybody else in qualifying.

Norris then did what he usually does when on pole, lost the lead at the first corner of the race.

That was as good as it got for Verstappen, as 18 laps later Norris passed him, and once he was past, all Verstappen could do was watch the McLaren drive away into the distance.

LANDO NORRIS WINS AT ZANDVOORT!!! 🏆

That was some drive from our TWO-TIME GRAND PRIX WINNER! 👏 @LandoNorris #DutchGP 🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/lVgwS06JGy

— McLaren (@McLarenF1) August 25, 2024

Norris eventually won the race by a huge margin of 22.896 seconds. It wasn’t just a victory, it was a statement win. Red Bull and Max Verstappen simply had no answer.

The result also means we have a live Drivers’ Championship market. To win the 2024 World Championship, Max Verstappen (295 points) is the favorite at -350. He does still have a 70-point lead at the top of the Championship.

Lando Norris is second in the points table with 225 points. He will have a lot of work to do to close the gap. But it's no longer a foregone conclusion that Verstappen will win.

To win the 2024 Drivers’ Championship, Lando Norris is +350.

Who is the favorite to win the 2024 Italian Grand Prix?

Lando Norris is the favorite in the latest betting to win the 2024 Italian Grand Prix.

Norris is +100 to win the race and land back-to-back wins in the last European Grand Prix of 2024.

Second in the betting to win in Italy is Max Verstappen at +275. Verstappen was the favorite last week at +175 (Norris was close behind at +185).

Third in the betting to win at Monza is Oscar Piastri at +600. The race winner from Hungary is followed in the betting by the Ferrari duo of Charles Leclerc (+1100) and Carlos Sainz (+1400).

Ferrari had an improved performance last weekend. Leclerc finished in third place, less than three seconds behind Max Verstappen. Sainz finished in fifth place.

Moving in the opposite direction from a betting perspective are George Russell (+1800) and Lewis Hamilton (+1800). A poor showing across the whole weekend from the Silver Arrows saw Russell finishing in seventh and Hamilton in eighth.

Full Formula 1 betting online odds for the 2024 Italian Grand Prix are available on our F1 odds table. For more information about the bookmakers we use, please check out our betting bonuses and promotions page.

Driver
Lando Norris	+100	+100	+100
Max Verstappen	+275	+275	+275
Oscar Piastri	+600	+600	+600
Charles Leclerc	+1100	+1100	+1100
Carlos Sainz	+1400	+1400	+1400
Lewis Hamilton	+1800	+1800	+1800
George Russell	+1800	+1800	+1800
Sergio Perez	+6600	+6600	+6600
Daniel Ricciardo	+20000	+20000	+20000
Fernando Alonso	+20000	+20000	+20000
Esteban Ocon	+50000	+50000	+50000
Lance Stroll	+50000	+50000	+50000
Kevin Magnussen	+50000	+50000	+50000
Alex Albon	+50000	+50000	+50000
Pierre Gasly	+50000	+50000	+50000
Yuki Tsunoda	+50000	+50000	+50000
Valtteri Bottas	+50000	+50000	+50000
Nico Hulkenberg	+50000	+50000	+50000
Franco Colapinto	+50000	+50000	+50000
Guanyu Zhou	+50000	+50000	+50000

What is the Monza circuit like?

The first thing that stands out about Monza is the lack of turns. There are just 11. In last Sunday’s race at Zandvoort, a far shorter circuit, there were 14.

The Monza circuit is one of the longer on the F1 roster at 5.793 km. It's very similar to Silverstone, the home of the British Grand Prix, which is 5.891 km long. But despite the similar length, Silverstone has 14 turns.

So who will the fewer turns and longer straights suit most?

It may bring Red Bull back into the equation. But it’s worth remembering that they have a hell of a gap to close on McLaren.

The McLaren car underwent major upgrades ahead of the Zandvoort race. The victory margin for Norris last Sunday was 22.896 seconds. And this was with Norris giving the lead to Verstappen at the first corner and trailing the Red Bull for 18 laps.

Imagine what the winning margin would have been without that mistake from the 24-year-old Brit.

Our 2024 Italian Grand Prix betting picks

Even if the Monza circuit does favor Red Bull more, and even if Lando Norris continues with his poor starts, Red Bull still has some gap to close on McLaren.

Furthermore, Verstappen was still lashing out at this team in Zandvoort. According to his radio messages, his car wasn’t giving him enough. We seem to be hearing this every week that the triple-world champion isn’t winning.

Christian Horner concedes P2 was the best Max Verstappen could do at Zandvoort, with the McLaren 'in a different league' 😮#F1 #DutchGP https://t.co/6BMxD5f7wr

— Formula 1 (@F1) August 27, 2024

The car having a problem is becoming Verstappen’s byword for I have no answer to the pace of Lando Norris.

It would be silly to write off Red Bull and Verstappen. And we are certainly not doing that.

But before the mid-season break the evidence we saw told us the McLaren car was a match for the Red Bull since Round 6 in Miami.

Furthermore, the evidence at Zandvoort last weekend told us that the McLaren car is now ahead of the Red Bull. And well ahead at that.

Another win for Lando Norris can be our only F1 betting pick this weekend.

Lando Norris To win the 2024 Italian Grand Prix

+100

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