Lando Norris favorite for Belgian Grand Prix victory after McLaren Hungaroring lockout

Finally, McLaren has locked out Red Bull. As a result, Lando Norris will start a race week as the betting favorite. Yes, despite not winning in Hungary, Lando Norris (+125) is the favorite to win the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix this weekend. In our latest Formula 1 betting picks, we tell you if the bookies have got it right.

What: Belgian Grand Prix 2024 - Round 14
Where: Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, Stavelot, Belgium
When: Sunday, July 28th, 2024
Time: 9 a.m ET
Laps: 44
Track Length: 7.004 km
Race Distance: 308.052 km

McLaren finally break the Red Bulls

Mercedes cashed in on a Norris/Verstappen coming together in Austria, and then again on the weather and some dodgy tire strategies at Silverstone the following week. But their luck ran out in Hungary and their winning streak ended as McLaren dominated the race weekend from start to finish.

The McLaren car has looked like the best car in the F1 paddock for some weeks now. Unfortunately, for one reason or another, this wasn’t reflected in race wins.

Finally, it all came together at the Hungaroring.

First, they locked out the front row of the grid for the first time since 2012. Lando Norris took the pole, and Oscar Piastri was in second position. Second, they took the top two places on the podium, Pisatri took the checkered flag, and Norris was the runner-up.

And across the line as a Grand Prix winner! 🧡

What a moment for Oscar Piastri 🇦🇺#F1 #HungarianGP pic.twitter.com/O9yvRqSv9l

— Formula 1 (@F1) July 21, 2024

It was the team's first 1-2 finish since 2021 at Monza (but that was more down to a collision between Verstappen and Hamilton).

The win wasn’t without incident. Keen to keep their 1-2 track positions, McLaren gave Norris the more beneficial pitstop when Piastri was the race leader. As a result, Norris was in the lead after the stops, and McLaren wanted him to hand the race lead back to Piastri.

For 20 laps, Norris debated this over the radio with his team before eventually relenting and allowing Piastri through for the win.

There could be an interesting conversation to be had if Norris misses out on the Drivers’ Championship by a couple of points at the end of the season.

Who is the favorite to win the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix?

The betting favorite to win the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix is Lando Norris. The McLaren No.1 driver is +125 to win his second race of the season.

We’ve been saying for weeks now that Max Verstappen will soon be odds against. In Round 6 in Miami, he was -700 to win the race at the beginning of race week. Fast forward eight rounds, and he is finally odds against. But, not only that, Verstappen is also the second favorite to win the race at +200.

Winner of the Hungarian Grand Prix, Oscar Piastri is +500 to go back-to-back. George Russell and Lewis Hamilton are both +1200.

Full Formula 1 betting online odds for the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix are available on our F1 odds table. For more information about the bookmakers we use, please check out our betting bonuses and promotions page.

Driver
Lando Norris	+125	+125	+125
Max Verstappen	+200	+200	+200
Oscar Piastri	+500	+500	+500
George Russell	+1200	+1200	+1200
Lewis Hamilton	+1200	+1200	+1200
Charles Leclerc	+2500	+2500	+2500
Carlos Sainz	+4000	+4000	+4000
Sergio Perez	+4000	+4000	+4000
Fernando Alonso	+25000	+25000	+25000
Lance Stroll	+25000	+25000	+25000
Esteban Ocon	+25000	+25000	+25000
Daniel Ricciardo	+25000	+25000	+25000
Kevin Magnussen	+50000	+50000	+50000
Alex Albon	+50000	+50000	+50000
Pierre Gasly	+50000	+50000	+50000
Yuki Tsunoda	+50000	+50000	+50000
Valtteri Bottas	+50000	+50000	+50000
Nico Hulkenberg	+50000	+50000	+50000
Logan Sargeant	+50000	+50000	+50000
Guanyu Zhou	+50000	+50000	+50000

What is the Spa circuit like?

The circuit at Spa is less favorable to McLaren than the Hungaroring was last weekend.

Does this mean they won’t have the fastest car? Probably not. But it does mean the gap might be closer to the rest of the paddock this weekend, possibly bringing Max Verstappen back into the reckoning.

Spa has more fast straights than the Hungaroring, meaning more passing chances for drivers. But it also has plenty of challenging corners, meaning a balance is needed to truly conquer the circuit.

At 7.004 km, Spa is the longest track on the F1 roster.

2024 Drivers’ Championship Latest Betting

There has been a significant change in the betting to win the 2024 Drivers’ Championship.

With 265 points, Max Verstappen holds a 76-point lead over Lando Norris (189 points). While this is still a significant lead, the Red Bull is now struggling to keep pace with McLaren. As a result, Verstappen’s odds to win the Championship have drifted from -1400 (pre-Hungary) to -600.

On the flip side, Lando Norris has been cut from +800 to +350 on the back of his second place at the Hungaroring.

Furthermore, Verstappen and his team seemed to be forever at loggerheads over the team radio in Hungary. It didn’t sound like a happy ship at all.

The mid-season break after the Belgian Grand Prix can’t come soon enough for Red Bull. It will give them a great chance to reset and plan what is needed to hold off Lando Norris and claim a fourth successive world title.

Our 2024 Belgian Grand Prix betting picks

Bizarrely, Max Verstappen is finally worth backing to win at +200. And with McLaren now looking like the team in the ascendancy, wouldn’t it be just like him to go and win the race this weekend?

Tempting as a bet on Verstappen is, we are not going with it.

Instead, we are going to deal with the cold hard facts, and they are that Lando Norris is currently in the quickest car in F1. If he can sort out his dodgy starts and stop losing track position on the first corner of every race, he should start winning Grand Prix races more regularly.

We are going with form this weekend. Max Verstappen is our pick to win the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix.

Lando Norris To win the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix

+125

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