Will Florida Sports Betting Market Expand?

Now that the United State Supreme Court has ensured Florida sports betting will continue as currently constituted, the future of The Sunshine State’s gambling market is now taking center stage.

Notably, key stakeholders, potential analysts and even sports want to know: Will the Florida sports betting market ever expand? And if it’s going to, when might it happen?

As it turns out, Hard Rock CEO Jim Allen was asked this very question. Earlier this year, while at the East Coast Gaming Congress, he addressed the possibility of market expansion during a conversation with Mike Mazzeo of Legal Sports.

“I don’t think we’ve ever stated that we wouldn’t work with some of the other companies, whether it be Caesars, BetMGM, DraftKings or FanDuel,” Allen told Mazzeo. “We’ve always stated that we’d be receptive to that conversation.”

This has naturally opened the floodgates for speculation. And with that conjecture comes plenty of questions. Let’s go ahead and try to answer some of them.

Why Hasn’t The Florida Sports Betting Market Expanded Yet?

One question that immediately springs to mind: Why does Allen’s opinion carry so much weight? After all, doesn’t the Seminole Tribe have a monopoly on sports betting in Florida?

That they do. But the Seminoles partner with Hard Rock. Specifically, they operate the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida. Equally important, Hard Rock Bet is also the operator of the Seminoles’ Florida online sports betting app. Customers are able to access and process wagers on that mobile betting site anywhere in the state—a feature that prompted years of litigation that only recently ended when the United States Supreme Court elected not to hear the Florida sports betting case brought before them by West Flagler Associates.

Anyway, this setup is why sports betting in The Sunshine State hasn’t already undergone meaningful expansion. The Seminoles have total control, which prohibits online sports betting sites in the United States from simply applying for licenses and opening up shop.

However, Allen’s comments suggest that Hard Rock and the Seminole Tribe aren’t married to their current exclusivity.

Well, sort of.

Market Expansion in The Sunshine State May Not be What You Think

Florida sports bettors looking for more options than Seminole Tribe casinos and the Hard Rock sports betting app will certainly appreciate the possibility of expansion. But those changes, assuming they ever come, will not necessarily be what you think.

Put another way: It may be harder to negotiate Florida sports betting expansion than we think.

At first blush, this sounds like a process that features BetMGM, FanDuel, Draftkings and other top online sportsbooks in the United States applying for licenses with the state. That’s most likely not what will happen. Indeed, state officials will probably be part of any expansion. But any new Florida online sportsbooks won’t be independently licensed. They will instead (basically) be partners of the Seminole Tribe.

That means they’d be running Florida sports betting sites on the Seminoles’ behalf. Rather than unlimited earning potential, they would instead receive a share of the revenue from the Seminoles themselves. When it comes down to it, this could be a potential hangup of prospective expansion.

Big name online sports betting sites in the United States have previously scoffed at working as what amounts to subsidiaries of tribal operators. We have seen this play out most prominently during attempts to legalize sports betting in California. Tribes expressed a willingness to have online operators run their sports betting apps, but wouldn’t (and still won’t) get on board with them applying for independent licenses—at least not right away.

Of course, revenue sharing might not be a dealbreaker for online sportsbooks anymore. Reports suggest companies are willing to consider it in California. The same could be true for the Florida sports betting market. Theoretically, then, this could grease the wheels of expansion in The Sunshine State.

Don’t Expect Florida to Broaden Their Sports Betting Offerings Anytime Soon

We nevertheless wouldn’t count on anything serious happening anytime soon. For starters, based on other comments Allen made to Legal Sports Report, it doesn’t sound like Hard Rock and the Seminole Tribe have mapped out scenarios of what expansion looks like. From Mazzeo’s conversation:

“I think it would be premature to figure out the mechanics of that until we know where we end up in the legal process. But there is no limitation on a conversation of skins or whatever it may be. I think it would be one step at a time. Certainly in the early days, they were obviously spending significant amounts of money to block any potential move in Florida. I’m not going to say those days are behind us. But I think now there’s a much better relationship from a communication standpoint.”

Read closely enough, and there are encouraging indicators. First and foremost, Allen was hedging against the outcome of the Florida sports betting case being handled by the United States Supreme Court. That matter has since been resolved. This should free up all parties to start discussing potential revenue sharing.

Whether anything happens on that front remains to be seen. It will probably be at least another year or two. Remember, Florida sports betting just relaunched in November 2023. The Seminole Tribe, Hard Rock and the state itself are still learning about the market, its demands and how much revenue they stand to make. All parties will likely want to see at least one fiscal year’s worth of returns before meaningfully considering market expansion.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: