Geoffrey Esper leads the betting to win 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

It’s nearly July 4th, so it’s time for the legendary Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. The competition has been rocked in recent weeks with the news that Joey Chestnut won’t be defending his title. But Miki Sudo is still competing in the women’s competition, and there is now an open betting market in the men’s. So who will take Joey Chestnut’s crown? We tell you the answer in our latest entertainment betting picks.

What: 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
Where: Surf Ave, Coney Island, Brooklyn, New York
When: Thursday, July 4th, 2024
Time: 10 am E.T

No Joey Chestnut in 2024

Scandal has hit the 2024 edition of Nathan’s Hotdog Eating Contest. As things stand, Joey Chestnut won’t be defending his title. He’s been banned from the competition after agreeing to a sponsorship deal with a company not approved by the Major League Eating (MLE) organization.

So instead of guzzling hot dogs in Brooklyn, Chestnut will be taking on Takeru Kobayashi (who is also banned) in a hot dog eating contest to be shown on Netflix on the same day.

The astute out there may have noticed we started by stating as things stand. And the reason for this is because we still aren’t convinced that Chestnut won’t be appearing on Thursday. In this day and age of social media, would anybody really be shocked to see Chestnut reinstated?

But to contradict that theory, it has to be said that if Netflix is involved in Chestnut’s showdown with Kobayashi, the chances are it is going to go ahead.

The blame game

The fallout from Chestnut’s absence has turned into a blame game. MLE is claiming Chestnut isn’t banned, and Chestnut is claiming that MLE changed the rules.

(1/3)I was gutted to learn from the media that after 19 years Im banned from the Nathan's July 4th Hot Dog Eating Contest. I love competing in that event, I love celebrating America with my fans all over this great country on the 4th and I have been training to defend my title.

— Joey Chestnut (@joeyjaws) June 11, 2024

Chestnut took to social media to inform his fans that - in his words - MLE had changed the rules.

Nevertheless, Chestnut's absence does give Geoffrey Esper and the rest of the field a chance to finally win the Mustard Yellow Belt.

Betting to win women’s event

Thankfully, no such problems are dogging the women’s hot dog eating event. The betting favorite is Miki Sudo. She is the defending champion, having won nine of the last 10 contests.

Sudo is looking for a three-peat this year after winning in 2022 and 2023. Miki Sudo is -1600 to eat the most again in 2024. Mayoi Ebihara is +750 and Michelle Lesco is +2500.

Competitor
Midi Sudo	-1600	-1600	-1600
Mayoi Ebihara	+750	+750	+750
Michelle Lesco	+2500	+2500	+2500

Sudo looks nailed on to win. In 2022 she guzzled 40 hot dogs and in 2023 it was 39.5. Prior to taking 2021 off, she managed an almighty 48.5 in 2020.

The over/under spread in 2024 is set at 40.5. She has only topped 40.5 twice in her nine wins. But three of her highest totals have been in her last three wins.

For a betting pick, we have to go for under 40.5 hot dogs for Miki Sudo.

Miki Sudo Under 40.5 Hot Dogs

-110

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She will no doubt be in the region of 40 hot dogs. But her closest competitor in 2023, Mayoi Ebihara only managing 33.5 hot dogs. So it doesn’t look like Sudo will be pushed to the limit and she may not need to break the 40 hot dog barrier again to win.

Men’s Competition Betting

In the latest entertainment betting online odds, the new favorite to eat the most hot dogs is Geoffrey Esper at +100.

Esper leads from James Webb at +180 and Nick Wehry at +500. Patrick Bertolleti is also being given a chance of winning by the sportsbooks at +650. Behind those four you can name your price.

Competitor
Geffrey Esper	+100	+100	+100
James Webb	+180	+180	+180
Nick Wehry	+500	+500	+500
Patrick Bertolleti	+650	+650	+650

The market is betting without Joey Chestnut. So even if there is a last-minute change of mind and Chestnut takes part, any wagers placed on Esper, Webb, and co, will still stand.

In the 2023 contest, Esper polished off 49 hot dogs, and Webb ate 47. The winner, Chestnut, managed 62. That’s the gulf in class between Chestnut and the rest of the competitors.

Our picks to win the men's competition

Geoffrey Esper polished off 49.5 hot dogs to qualify for this event. He looks at the same level he was at in 2023. Will it be enough to see off the threat from James Webb?

In the over/under spreads, the line is set at 49.5 Esper, and 46.5 for Webb. The bookmakers are basing their projections on what happened in 2023 and in qualifying for 2024.

The 2024 edition is a huge chance for Esper or Webb to finally get their hands on the coveted Mustard Belt. So there is a chance that nerves might kick in and both men might underperform.

With this in mind, for our picks, we are going for Geoffrey Esper to eat less than 49.5 hot dogs. And we also say that James Webb will eat less than 46.5 hot dogs.

Geoffrey Esper Under 49.5 Hot Dogs

-110

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James Webb Under 46.5 Hot Dogs

-110

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So this also means our betting pick to win the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is Geoffrey Esper.

Geoffrey Esper To win 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

+100

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