California Sports Betting Faces Long Odds

The timeline for the legalization of sports betting in California continues to get pushed further and further back. Now, at least one gambling expert believes that sports gambling in The Golden State will not be greenlit until 2028—if not later.

This sentiment will come as a blow to anyone who has been pushing for sports betting in California. Yet, even the most ardent sports gambling supporters probably aren’t surprised by it. Disappointed? Absolutely. Shocked? Not if they have paid attention to the latest goings on.

In many ways, the writing has been on the wall. And it may have been scribbled in permanent ink.

California Could be One of the Last States to Legalize Sports Betting

Multiple 2024 California sports betting bills are officially off the table after generating little to no support. Without any other proposals in play, 2026 looms as the next chance for California to legalize sports betting.

But “chance” does not equate to automatic success. On the contrary, Richard Schuetz, a veteran of the California gaming industry, recently told Legal Sports Report’s Mike Mazzeo that he believes “it will not happen until later than 2028.”

That is…a ways off. And this timeline likely means California would be one of the last places in the United States to legalize sports betting. Nearly 40 states have approved some form of sports gambling at this writing. That number is expected to climb in the coming years. It will almost certainly increase in general election years (i.e. 2024, 2026 and 2028). By the time 2028 rolls around, there’s a strong chance, if not outright likelihood, 42-plus states have legalized some type of sports gambling.

So why does the California sports betting timeline continue to hover on the pessimistic end of the spectrum? Believe it or not, this year’s feeble attempt at the legalization of California sports betting may have actually pushed back the state’s timeline. At least, that’s what select tribal leaders and California policymakers believe. And truth be told, they’re probably correct.

The Most Recent California Sports Betting Bills May Have Delayed Future Attempts at Legalization

Multiple sports betting initiatives were proposed by Kasey Thompson and Reeve Collins, two veterans of the tech industry. Though their measures were approved for ballot signatures, the legislation never gained any traction among, well, anyone. Both the majority of California tribes and online sportsbooks in the United States released statements and/or made public comments deriding the sports gambling measures.

Issues with the latest gambling bills surfaced in droves. The biggest one of all: Tribes said that Reeves and Thompson neither consulted nor collaborated with them while putting them together. That by itself was a death knell for the measures. Tribes have exclusivity over gaming in California. Any amendment to include legal sports betting will require their support.

Attempting to circumvent that process never made any sense. And it may have delayed meaningful discussions on the subject between the state’s tribes. So much time was spent responding and reacting to the since-failed measures that it prevented dialogue on the proposal of other bills. As Victor Rocha, conference chair of the National Indian Gaming Association, told Legal Sports Report:

“They were not serious players. I just heard BS. Now they leave as these really sad, pathetic characters that nobody will remember…They lied to everybody. They didn’t hire the signature-gathers like they said they did. They didn’t have $25 million like they said they did. It was lie after lie after lie. But I think it was just all one big bluff. They were hoping to get some type of inertia going, and were hoping it would snowball into something bigger. But it never did because they were never serious. They’re now relegated to the sideshow of freaks and geeks in the circus that is California sports betting.”

Okay, a Delay is One Thing, But Why is California Sports Gambling Still Potentially a Half-Decade or More Away?

Though the latest sham of a California sports betting effort deserves some blame for derailing 2024 hopes, it is not responsible for an otherwise bleak outlook.

The previous attempt to legalize sports betting in California failed spectacularly during the 2022 elections. One measure proposed by tribes focused solely on the approval of on-site sports betting. The other, led by a consortium of online sportsbooks, sought to include mobile disastrous at the polls. California voters emphatically rejected both proposals.

Recovering from that loss will require collaboration. And as far as we can tell, no meaningful dialogue between California tribes and online sportsbooks have taken place.

Indeed, many believe a tribal-led bill may be able to get through on its own. Lawmakers overwhelmingly sided with the tribes’ bill last time around. Meanwhile, a handful of experts wonder whether online sportsbooks in the USA will sit out the next round of discussions after spending so much money on a failed bid in 2022. Regardless, it does not appear as if online sportsbooks or California tribes were prepared to introduce sports betting legislation in 2024. That in itself might account for why the widely opposed bills this time around ever made it through.

Is There Hope for California Sports Betting to be Legalized Before 2028?

To that end, a 2028 or later sports betting timeline for California may be overly pessimistic. Tribes throughout the state should be able to find common ground in time for the 2026 election. And while it may take some time to roll out, that would still put California sports betting on track to debut before 2028.

The additional time tacked onto that window seems to suggest a measure won’t ever be successful without the cooperation of both state tribes and online sportsbooks. And when framed that way, we understand the feeling of hopelessness.

Tribes and sportsbooks were that far apart last time around. Online operators wanted independent licenses. Tribes, meanwhile, wanted to give them access in only a tech-support capacity.

Sure, all the parties involved could inevitably make concessions and find a happy medium. But that, again, requires dialogue with one another. Until we get word that tribes and sportsbooks are collaborating, it will continue to feel as if California sports betting is more than a few years away.

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