Could Tribes Accelerate California Sports Betting Timeline?

For so long, the unofficial California sports betting timeline has remained the same. As it turns out, though, there is room for it to change.

Historically, this amounts to potential delays. In this case, however, the legalization of online sports betting in California may be subject to acceleration.

To be sure, this still means that California sports betting remains years away. No bill to legalize it appeared on the 2024 electoral ballot. The earliest another initiative can be dispatched for voter approval is November 2026. And even if it passes, The Golden State must still go through the process of rolling out operations. That can take the better part of a year—if not longer. At this rate, then, California sports betting may not launch until sometime in 2027. 

That is the assumption under which many are operating. What’s more, the prevailing sentiment is that retail sports betting in California will launch first. Then, after a year or two, online sportsbooks in the United States would be allowed to enter the market.

Realistically speaking, there is not a ton of room for actual acceleration within the current window. And yet, recent developments are suggesting it’s possible. It might even be likely.

The Urgency to Launch California Sports Betting Services is Apparently on the Rise

While retail California sports betting doesn’t have a plausible path to a faster track, online operators are a different story. As expert Steve Ruddock covers on his Substack, the “urgency” for sports betting in California is on the rise. This, in turn, could lead to California online sports betting being legalized in tandem with retail wagering. 

Consider this following excerpt:

“STTP believes there is momentum for tribes to push their online betting timeline from 2028 to 2026. First, getting a measure on the ballot in California is expensive. Doing it twice (once for retail and once for mobile) with no guarantee that either will succeed could be costly; the failed 2022 initiatives cost around $600 million in total. Two significant changes have occurred since the failed 2022 efforts and the laughable 2023-2024 effort. [First,] Commercial sportsbooks have adopted a conciliatory approach to working with, not against, the tribes. [Secondly,] The presence of sweepstakes and other gray market operators has provided a sense of urgency. Tribes and commercial operators are largely on the same page regarding the approach and the existence of sweepstakes sites, which are proving extremely difficult to eradicate.”

Prospective costs for ballot measures alone may be enough to rework the California sports betting timeline. The $600 million shelled out for the previously failed attempts is the most in the history of ballot measures. 

However, the rise of sweepstakes sites offer another compelling catalyst. Shutting all of them down is impossible. There are too many different kinds. Sending cease and desist orders to daily fantasy operators because their offerings too closely mirror general online sports betting in the United States is one thing. But there are other transactional buckets, such as sites that offer users a chance to effectively gamble against other users.

Would California Tribes Really Skirt the Opportunity to Have an Exclusive Sports Wagering Window?

People are and will continue to be inherently skeptical of the chance for joint legalization. And that is fair. Opening a window in which they have exclusive rights to California sports betting is considered important for tribes. It gives them a chance to build up clientele before the competition for market share heats up.

And yet, as Ruddock points out, the recent collaboration between tribes and online sportsbooks in the USA does not guarantee absolute agreement. If a sports betting bill allows tribes to launch sports betting apps in California with the use of B2B software companies, online operators may oppose the bill. After all, this method of legalization would effectively establish an extensive online business before they ever get to launch. 

At the same time, tribes may not be too keen on simply launching retail options. Sure, it will generate extra revenue. But the vast majority of sports bets placed in the United States are processed online. Banking on physical business alone is dicey. Not everyone is within driving distance of a casino. And even if they are, placing bets from home or on the go is much more convenient.

To that end, if and when California retail sports betting launches first, many will still be compelled to register with offshore sportsbooks. And that will eat into casinos’ opportunity to build up their customer base and profit margins. 

The Sports Betting Discussion will be a Hot Button Issue in 2025

This will be a fascinating situation to follow once the California state legislature convenes in January 2025. Sports betting already figured to be a prominent item on the agenda. But the increased urgency to compete with sweepstakes sites adds another layer of intrigue.

Will California tribes find a way to carve out an exclusivity window that lets them offer online sports betting before corporate operators enter the market? Will they be content with just brick-and-mortar operations at their disposal until 2028? Or might we say California sports betting launch both in retail and online mediums at the same time?

One or another, it seems like sports betting is coming to California soon enough. The path it travels to get there, though, remains a multi-layered mystery.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: