The California Sports Betting Dialogue Between Tribes and Operators is Ongoing

The dialogue between tribes and operators on the future of California sports betting has apparently continued in the first few months of 2025. What that means, exactly, remains a mystery.

This would previously be considered a significantly positive development. It still is in some ways. 

The failed attempt to legalize sports betting in California during the 2022 electoral process remains fresh in everyone’s minds. Back then, competing measures wound up undermining each other. Tribes sponsored one bill that kept California sports betting exclusive to them. Another initiative was backed by top mobile sports betting sites in the United States with the aim of legalizing online wagering. Between an over-saturation of campaigning and counter-campaigning, as well as confusion over legalization structures, both proposals failed at the polls. And not only did they fail, but they flopped. Neither of the last two California sports betting wills were even remotely close to legalization.

Another measure has yet to (seriously) earn consideration in the years since. But tribes and online sportsbooks in the United States have become increasingly communicative during this time. 

Some even believe they are functionally collaborative. As just one example, FanDuel sportsbook has made a wave of hires over the past year of people with tribal backgrounds in The Golden State.

This dynamic has persisted into 2025. Talks have most recently taken place at the Indian Gaming Tradeshow and Convention in San Diego. According to multiple outlets, these conversations feature leaders from six of the state’s 100-plus federally recognized tribes. They also include members of the Sports Betting Alliance Advisory Council, which is a group of representatives from commercial sportsbooks such as FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM and Fanatics. 

These developments are viewed as harbingers of progress. And again, they probably are. But to what end?

California Sports Betting Talks Are Happening, But to an Uncertain End

Sam McQuillan of Legal Sports Report calls the recent discussions the “most detailed attempt yet to restart negotiations between tribes and national betting operators.” That is a big deal. But people involved in the discussion continue to convey that any official agreements remain a ways off. From McQuillan:

“Tribal leaders who participated stressed that the talks remain preliminary. Jeff Grubbe, former chairman of the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians, described the meeting as a ‘valuable opportunity’ but warned that ‘a final agreement remains a long way off.’ ‘To the best of my knowledge, no agreements have been reached between any tribes and commercial operators,’ Grubbe said in a statement. ‘This process will be tribally driven and grounded in the protection of existing brick-and-mortar operations.’”

Grubbe’s sentiments echo tribal consensus these past few years. They have gaming exclusivity in the state. They believe that extends to California sports betting. 

Tribal stances carry plenty of merit. For starters, with more than 100 federally recognized tribal nations in California, they hold a ton of sway over policy. There is no state in which tribal nations have more influence, except for perhaps Oklahoma. 

More to the point, the rise of online sports betting in the United States serves as an existential threat to brick-and-mortar business models. By our estimation, more than 85 percent of all sports bets in the USA are processed through a mobile operator. Competing with that is virtually impossible if you’re a casino. Sure. they can open their own California online sportsbooks. But they will not have the built-in resources or brand recognition of commercial operators.

Can California Tribes and Sportsbook Operators Find a Compromise?

Finding a middle ground is key to getting California sports betting over the hump. Suggestions are constantly being posed. None of them have gained enough traction.

Two of the more appealing scenarios feature financial protection for tribal nations and staggered rollouts. In the first instance, online betting sites in the USA will foot the expenses for the electoral measure. That spares tribes a ton of overhead, along with some risk. As a result, a limited number of online sportsbooks would operate in California, under plenty of restrictions.

Staggered rollouts, meanwhile, would see on-site sports betting launch first. From there, California betting sites enter the mix a year or two later. This at one time seemed like the most logical solution. It has lost steam in recent months. 

Everything comes back to business preservation for the tribes. A staggered rollout does only so much if FanDuel and DraftKings, among others, simply cannibalize the market share shortly thereafter. Tribes will more likely than not continue to favor a setup similar to sports betting in Wisconsin, where on-site operators have held exclusivity since 2021.

Don’t Bother Trying to Project a California Sports Betting Timeline

The fragility and complexity of this situation leaves experts at a loss when it comes to projecting forward. Speculating on a California sports betting timeline makes little sense when even a tentative agreement seems so far away.

It feels especially telltale that we have not seen another measure over the past three years. If any model is remotely close, you at least expect more discussions during legislative sessions. Even when it comes to failed attempts to legalize Georgia sports betting or Texas sports betting, proposals are still being consistently sent to the legislative chambers.

California’s current trajectory is not necessarily inferior to those. After all, what is the point of cobbling together sports betting bills only for them to fail? The Golden State’s process could signal a commitment to thoroughness. This suggests an initiative will not even surface until it has the support necessary from every stakeholder, including mobile operators, tribes, government officials and even voters.

That is a great thing on its face. But it complicates any attempts at projecting a timeline. As things stand, we already know California sports betting legalization isn’t happening before 2027. Will it get approved before 2029? Or 2031? At any point in the near or semi-distant future? Your guess, frankly, is as good as that from anyone else.

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