The Future of California Sports Betting May Not be a Forgone Conclusion After All

Not too long ago, it seemed as if the future of California sports betting was implicitly laid out. That may not be the case anymore.

Ever since the failed attempt to legalize sports betting in California over four years ago, industry analysts have maintained success is a matter of when rather than if. Those sentiments remain true today. The California sports betting market projects to be the biggest in the United States. There is no way The Golden State allows themselves to permanently miss out on such a lucrative revenue stream.

Still, the absence of sports betting legislation since 2022 looms large. Key stakeholders, along with state officials, try to downplay this idle time period. The next attempt to pass California sports betting, they believe, requires more forethought. Mainly, they are referring to collaboration between tribal nations and online sportsbooks in the United States. Both parties sponsored opposing bills in 2022. They each flopped.

More recently, though, there seem to be signs of progress. In particular, there is clearly more dialogue taking place between sportsbooks and tribal officials. That has fueled momentum. And as the momentum increased, a prospective California sports betting timeline materialized. 

Just a few months prior, it seemed like retail sports betting in California would be legalized by 2026. Exclusivity would be granted to tribes, in this case, for the first year or two. Then, by 2028 or 2029, there would be a widespread California online sports betting launch.

To be sure, this is an unofficial timeline. On top of that, nothing concretely suggests said timeline isn’t still possible. However, even optimistic prognosticators are beginning to push back their projections. And it isn’t necessarily clear why.

California Sports Betting Could be on the Back Burner for Longer Than Expected

Remember that 2026 legalization timeline? Well, many now believe California sports betting will not be legalized before 2027. If that’s the case, it in all likelihood cannot launch until 2028 or later. 

Any sports betting bill will likely require a constitutional amendment, which mandates voter approval during general elections. If a proposal is not included in time for the 2026 race, then November 2028 is next up. At that point, there is almost no way California sports wagering launches prior to 2029. This brings us back to the question of why. Though there is no irrefutable answer, a recent Tahoe Daily Tribune op ed intimates that tribal nations remain at odds with online sports betting app operators:

“Most of the holdup reduces to dollars, particularly to whom they go. The state’s Indian tribes, who operate casinos for decades, are bent on keeping sports wagering in their hands, arguing that it is an extension of their existing prerogatives over gambling enterprises. Meanwhile, large sportsbooks—those gaudy, billion-dollar enterprises that litter your screen with commercials—are waiting to discover an angle for themselves in what would be one of the country’s largest wagering markets.

“This is where things get tangled. The tribes hold a lot of political power in California. They give to campaigns. They advertise. [And] they remind voters, quietly but persistently, that they were promised a monopoly when it came to gambling. To them, the existence of giant online sportsbooks is not just a business issue; it’s a potential violation of that promise.”

The article’s point about the power of tribal nations is spot-on. Oklahoma is the only other state in which tribes may hold more sway over political procedure. 

The Primary Roadblock to Sports Wagering in California Still Isn’t Totally Clear

Of course, this overview of the situation runs counter to developments from just a few months ago. Most notably, FanDuel hired a handful of people with California tribal backgrounds. 

Executives with the company—and others—also speak of how they plan to seriously collaborate with tribes this time around. They have, on occasion, even seemed agreeable to accepting any terms the tribal nations lay out.

Is this stance perhaps shifting? Do top online sports betting sites in the United States no longer wish to wait years after a retail launch to enter the market? Or rather, do tribal nations no longer wish to include a timeline for California online sportsbooks at all? Might they instead prefer to retain exclusivity across the board, including online operations?

Are California Tribal Nations Attempting to Mirror the Florida Sports Betting Setup?

The latter scenario is a throwback to 2022. Back then, tribal nations seemed open to partnerships with corporate sportsbooks. These operators would, as many said at the time, serve as tech support to California online sports betting sites. They would not have independent licenses. 

Online operators balked at this stance—hence the sponsorship of a separate bill. Since then, however, the state of affairs for sports betting in Florida has held serve. That setup closely mirrors this (theoretical) one. 

The Seminole Tribe has exclusive rights to Florida online sports betting and on-site wagering. Their interpretation of the law has also proven successful. The Seminole Tribe Hard Rock sports betting app can be accessed anywhere throughout Florida, not just on tribal property. Their need for commercial sportsbooks, then, is virtually nonexistent.

California tribes may be seeking to follow the same path. Then again, this requires tribal consensus. That is tough to do when dealing with so many tribes—over 100, in fact. So in reality, it may be a lack of tribal consensus that is obfuscating the future.

Whatever it is, though, it doesn’t seem as if they’ll be any concrete answers given or even hinted at in 2025.

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