UPDATE: MAYWEATHER PROMOTIONS ANNOUNCED THE NEW MATCH DATE - JUNE 6th, 2021
There were initially some questions about this boxing match's viability, but it looks like the Floyd Mayweather vs. Logan Paul fight is on for Saturday, June 6. Many have deemed the outcome a foregone conclusion, but there is still value to mine from this exhibition showdown. So you better believe we have Mayweather vs. Paul betting picks to deliver.
Before we start dropping our scorching-hot takes, here's a look at the current lines for this matchup, courtesy of BetOnline:
As of this writing, we have well more than a month before the fight, so you'll want to double-check these Mayweather vs. Paul betting odds prior to making any decisions. You will also want to remain up to date on the latest news, as there's a chance this showdown could get axed. Celebrity exhibitions are fickle. Fighters can back out last minute, and the coronavirus pandemic has put every live-sporting event in some type of jeopardy.
Enough of that, though. Let's get to our predictions for Floyd Mayweather vs. Logan Paul.
Mayweather vs. Paul Betting Breakdown
Who's moneyline should you invest in? What props or other wagers should you take a look at? Find everything you need to know below.
Mayweather vs. Paul Scouting Report
Who is Logan Paul? And why is Mayweather fighting him? These are questions that get asked a lot. And rightfully so.
For starters, Paul is not a boxer. For the record, he also isn't the "Paul" who faced off in the ring against former NBA player Nate Robinson. That was Logan's brother, Jake. Like Jake, though, Paul's primary source of fame is social media. He has more than 22 million subscribers on YouTube, where he posts a bunch of videos in which he's basically causing mischief.
The interest in this Mayweather-Paul bout exists purely from the perspective of it being a spectacle: It's going to be entertaining, because of how far off the beaten path it travels. Paul's boxing experience is so minimal, while Mayweather is so often identified as the greatest tactician the sport has ever seen.
If Paul has one advantage, it's his body. He checks in at 6'2" and around 200 pounds, giving him roughly six inches and 50 pounds on Mayweather. How much that matters remains to be seen. Paul's only training came prior to his two matchups with another YouTuber known as KSI. And if those fights were any indication, he is not some boxing diamond living in the rough.
Mayweather vs. Paul Predictions
Rocket scientists aren't needed to make a prediction for this showdown. Paul is, at best, an amateur boxer. In reality, he's probably something much less. He does not have a chance to beat one of the best boxers of all time.
Indeed, these exhibition matches are for show. Mayweather, who has an official record of 49-0, will perform with that in mind. Emphasis on performance. The 43-year-old will not be going at full bore and doesn't necessarily have the ability to after being out of the counts-toward-your-record boxing game for so long.
Still, this is Floyd Mayweather, going up against someone who, inside the ring, ranks as a total nobody. Even if this fight was scripted, he'd be the one to emerge victoriously. We recommend jumping on his Bovada odds (-1400), before they tilt closer toward what you're seeing at BetOnline and elsewhere (-2000).
OSB Prediction: Floyd Mayweather
Mayweather vs. Paul Props
This is where things get reaaally interesting, which is to say, less predictable. BetOnline is offering a few props for this matchup. These are our favorites.
First to Bleed
- Logan Paul (-500)
- Floyd Mayweather (+250)
Count us shocked that Paul isn't the heavier favorite here.
Mayweather was never the most powerful boxer; his success is rooted primarily in evasive maneuvers and surgical combos. But, well, he actually has to take a punch to be the first one who bleeds. We can't imagine Paul will be the first one to land contact, even if he comes out on the offensive. Mayweather would need to give him a free shot.
OSB Prediction: Logan Paul (-500)
Will Logan Paul be knocked down?
- Yes (-200)
- No (+150)
This one is a little trickier.
If Mayweather is fighting at full tilt, Paul will absolutely be knocked down, perhaps as a prelude to a knockout. But we know better than to expect Mayweather to come out fists blazing. He'll likely drag this match out for the purposes of maximizing viewership and maybe even teasing a sequel.
That doesn't mean Paul won't eventually find himself on the mat. He probably will. Even a version of Mayweather fighting at 10 percent speed will have the accuracy necessary to throw him off balance.
OSB Prediction: Yes (-200)
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
- Yes (-175)
- No (+130)
Investing in this prop is a little difficult. A concrete set of rules for the Mayweather-Paul fight has yet to be implemented. That's why there aren't yet odds on the specific number of rounds it will last.
In the end, it makes sense to roll the dice. Paul and Mayweather are squaring off to entertain first and foremost. Taking this to a decision is the best way to do that. It not only gives more people an opportunity to purchase the pay-per-view, but it opens the door for a potentially even more lucrative rematch.
OSB Prediction: Yes (-175)
Total Pay-Per-View Buys
- Over 3 million (-110)
- Under 3 million (+105)
This ends being a pretty easy wager to consider. Celebrity exhibition boxing matches have become all the rage. And this one is particularly tantalizing.
In one corner, you have Floyd Mayweather, one of the greatest boxers of all time and a brand unto himself. He will draw in current boxing fans and nostalgic supporters who miss watching him fight. In the other corner, you have a YouTube star, with his own unique fanbase: A younger generation who may not usually tune into boxing but will pony up for this match because it features Logan Paul.
On top of all that, you'll also reel in the genuinely curious demographic. These will be the people wondering whether Mayweather can still fight, or what Paul looks like in the ring.
Put another way: This thing is going to clear three million pay-per-views easily.
OSB Prediction: Over 3 million (-110)
Will Conor McGregor be in Attendance?
- Yes (+250)
- No (-400)
Oddsmakers clearly don't believe McGregor will show up for this fight. We respectfully disagree.
Many people expect McGregor to book an exhibition fight with Logan's brother, Jake Paul. And you can bet Jake will be in attendance. If he and Conor schedule a fight, then it makes sense for both of them to be there so they can hype it up with an in-person feud.
Beyond that, McGregor has also publicly thrown shade at Mayweather, most recently calling him fat and insinuating that Logan has a chance. If Logan were smart, he'd do everything in his power to ensure McGregor is ringside or at least at the press conference, if only to try spooking Mayweather.
OSB Prediction: Yes (+250)
Will Cash Be Visible (Pre-Fight Press Conference Only)
- Yes (+200)
- No (-300)
Anybody who follows Mayweather on social media knows he likes to flaunt his wealth. He posts stacks of actual cash in addition to winning bet slips.
Still, he has always stopped short of showcasing actual cash with him in person. We shouldn't expect that to change.
However!
This isn't a real boxing match. It's an exhibition. And he's fighting a YouTube star who is essentially famous for trolling. We need to throw convention out the window here.
Maybe Logan Paul brings a stack of cash to mock Mayweather. Or maybe Mayweather drives into the press conference in an actual Brinks armored truck and hops out carrying bags of cash. Everything about this match is theater, which means anything goes. And that's why we're stepping out on a limb in search of a 2-to-1 return.
OSB Prediction: Yes (-200)
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