NBA MVP Award Favorites

By  OnlineSportsBetting, 

Reviewed by Dan Favale, 

Fact checked by Frank Monkhouse

Updated on: Oct 15, 2024 12:00 AM

Odds to Win the 2024/25 NBA MVP Award

The Odds to Win the NBA MVP 2024/25 are displayed below.

MVP Winners Odds 2024/25
Nikola Jokic	+380	+390	+380
Luka Doncic	+380	+380	+410
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+550	+550	+575
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+550	+550	+550
Joel Embiid	+550	+600	+600
Jayson Tatum	+1500	+1500	+1500
Anthony Edwards	+1500	+1500	+1500

Last updated on: November 4, 2024

The Maurice Podoloff trophy is awarded once the panel of judges casts their votes on the top five players. Each position has a point value – first-place votes is ten points, second place is seven, third is worth five points, fourth is worth three points and fifth place is worth one point. The judging panel is made up of sportswriters and broadcasters across the United States and Canada.

Winners of the NBA MVP award are automatically eligible to be inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. Many inductees have multiple MVP awards under their belts, like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6x), Michael Jordan (5x), Bill Russell (5x), Lebron James (4x) and Wilt Chamberlain(4x).

There is only one instance where a player has won the award unanimously – Steph Curry in 2015-16. Shaquille O’Neal in 1999-2000 and Lebron James in 2012-2013 were the only instances where they were one vote shy with 120 of 121 votes.

NBA MVP odds are released when the NBA Finals wrap up, alongside other NBA futures – and they will fluctuate and change throughout the season based on player performance. There are always one or two standout players each season that is highly favored to win the NBA MVP award, and 2024/25 is no exception.

MVP candidate Luka Doncic opens up as the favorite to win the 2024/25 NBA MVP, with the young Slovenian lighting up the league.

 

Back in 2020, all the candidates were pretty close together from November to March when Giannis Antetokounmpo broke away from the pack and his odds dropped to -950, and finally dropped to -5000 in July when the NBA return to play plan was released.

In the past two decades, there have been five back to back MVP winners, so seeing Giannis Antetokounmpo winning again in 2020 wasn’t totally unexpected. He continued his domination in the 2019-2020 season, finishing in the top three in both points and rebounds, and earning the NBA’s highest player efficiency rating – along with being favored to win Defensive Player of the Year.

Not to mention, the Milwaukee Bucks are within the top four favored teams to win the NBA Finals.

However, anything can happen with four-time recipient King James in the mix place, ex-Rookie of the Year Luka Doncic, as well as former MVP James Harden also in the running – not to mention the return of Kevin Durant. The talent sitting under Antetokounmpo is gigantic, and depending on how the panel votes, we could see an underdog come through the ranks.

Favorite NBA Players to win the MVP Award

As the NBA season heats up, several players are emerging as frontrunners for the coveted MVP Award, each showcasing exceptional talent and leadership on the court.

Nikola Jokic (+350 to +400)

Nikola Jokic remains a top MVP contender, showcasing his elite offensive skills and unmatched passing vision. Despite the loss of teammates, he is expected to maintain a high level of efficiency, potentially averaging a triple-double and leading the Denver Nuggets to 50+ wins. However, concerns about voter fatigue and historical precedence may impact his chances of securing a fourth MVP award.

Luka Doncic (+350 to +370)

Luka Doncic is poised for a breakthrough MVP season after leading the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals, fueled by newfound confidence and offseason support. Historically, his individual excellence has been overshadowed by the team’s overall performance, but recent acquisitions could enhance the Mavs’ chances for a top playoff seed. If they succeed, Doncic’s MVP case will gain significant momentum, making him a serious threat for the award.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as a rising star, finishing second in MVP voting last season and leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to impressive heights. Following the departure of Paul George, SGA has become a dominant force, showcasing his scoring ability and defensive prowess. With the Thunder looking to make a deep playoff run, Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP candidacy is only set to strengthen as the season progresses.

 

How to Bet on 2024/25 NBA MVP Odds

Why Do NBA MVP Odds & Lines Change During the Season?

NBA MVP odds and lines fluctuate throughout the season due to various factors, including player performance, team dynamics, and external influences like injuries or trades. As players excel or struggle, sportsbooks adjust their odds to reflect the changing narrative around each candidate. For instance, if a player goes on a scoring streak or leads their team to an unexpected winning streak, their MVP odds might improve, while the odds for other candidates may decrease.

Additionally, media coverage and fan sentiment can impact how odds are set. As discussions around potential MVP candidates heat up, bookmakers will adjust their lines to balance betting activity and minimize risk. This means that bettors should closely monitor performance trends, as the best time to place a wager might be when odds are still favorable before a player’s performance or public opinion shifts.

Why Does the NBA MVP Favorite Have Plus-Odds?

In sports betting, plus-odds indicate that a player is an underdog to win the MVP award, even if they are currently the favorite. This may seem counterintuitive, but plus-odds for the MVP favorite often reflect the inherent uncertainty in sports betting. Although a player may be performing well and leading in various statistical categories, the competition remains fierce, and sportsbooks anticipate that other candidates may still emerge as strong contenders.

For example, if Nikola Jokic is the favorite but has plus-odds (+250), it suggests that while he is likely to win, there is still a significant chance for other players like Luka Doncic or Giannis Antetokounmpo to overtake him, thus justifying the higher payout. This pricing strategy ensures that the sportsbooks attract bets on multiple players, balancing their risk.

How Does Scoring (PPG) Factor In?

Points per game (PPG) is one of the most critical metrics in determining an NBA player's value and, consequently, their MVP candidacy. Historically, MVP winners often lead the league in scoring or are among the top scorers, as scoring is a direct indicator of a player's impact on the game. A high PPG not only reflects a player’s offensive skills but also often correlates with their team's success.

However, scoring alone is not enough. Other factors, such as assists, rebounds, and overall contributions to team play, also play significant roles in MVP voting. Voters often look for players who not only score but also facilitate plays and elevate their teammates, making PPG an essential yet singular aspect of a larger evaluation process.

Which Positions Most Often Win NBA MVP?

Historically, the MVP award has favored certain positions, particularly point guards and forwards. Point guards, known for their playmaking abilities, often have a significant impact on their team's success and overall performance. Players like Magic Johnson and Stephen Curry have set the standard for point guards winning the award.

Forwards, especially small forwards and power forwards, have also been frequent recipients of the MVP title, with legends like Larry Bird, LeBron James, and Dirk Nowitzki showcasing their dominance in both scoring and playmaking. Center positions have seen fewer MVP winners in recent years, although players like Shaquille O’Neal and Nikola Jokic have challenged that trend by delivering exceptional seasons.

How Old is the Average NBA MVP Winner?

The average age of an NBA MVP winner typically hovers around the late 20s to early 30s. Most players achieve peak performance between the ages of 25 and 30, which aligns with the history of MVP winners. This age range allows players to combine their physical prime with experience gained from several seasons in the league.

Interestingly, some younger players have started to enter the conversation, such as Luka Doncic, while older players like LeBron James have demonstrated that excellence can persist into their mid-30s. As the league evolves, the average age may shift, reflecting the increasing skill and readiness of younger players entering the league.

How Does Team Success (Record) Impact NBA MVP Voting?

Team success is often a crucial factor in MVP voting. Typically, the MVP award tends to favor players on winning teams, as voters want to recognize players who contribute significantly to their team's success. A player on a team with a high win-loss record is generally viewed as more valuable than a standout player on a struggling team.

For instance, players from teams that reach the playoffs or secure a top seed in their conference often receive more MVP attention. This emphasis on team success can sometimes overshadow individual statistics, leading to debates about whether a player's contributions are significant enough to warrant MVP consideration despite their team’s overall performance.

Are Playoff Results a Factor for NBA MVP Voting?

Playoff results can play a pivotal role in NBA MVP voting, particularly as the regular season winds down and the playoffs approach. While the MVP is awarded based solely on regular-season performance, strong playoff performances can influence voters’ perceptions and sentiments, especially if a player excels in high-pressure situations.

For example, if a player has a stellar regular season but struggles in the playoffs, their chances of winning the MVP may diminish. Conversely, a player who elevates their game during the postseason may gain favor among voters, solidifying their MVP case for the next season. However, it's essential to note that playoff performance is not an official criterion for the MVP award; it can significantly impact how players are perceived in the lead-up to the voting.

NBA Voting Process

The NBA MVP voting process involves a panel of sportswriters, broadcasters, and former players who cast their votes based on regular-season performance. Each voter selects their top five MVP candidates, with points assigned to each position (first place receives 10 points, second place gets 7 points, third gets 5 points, fourth gets 3 points, and fifth gets 1 point). The player with the highest total points at the end of the voting is awarded the MVP title.

The voting results are typically announced during the NBA playoffs, creating anticipation and debate among fans and analysts. The process is designed to be transparent, with the NBA releasing the voting results and breakdowns, allowing fans to see how close the race was and how different players were evaluated.

NBA MVP Voting Weaknesses

Despite the efforts to create a fair and transparent voting process, the NBA MVP voting system has its weaknesses. One notable issue is the inherent bias among voters, who may have personal preferences or affiliations that influence their decisions. This can lead to inconsistencies in how players are evaluated across different seasons.

Additionally, the emphasis on team success can overshadow individual brilliance, causing outstanding performances from players on lesser teams to be overlooked. This bias can sometimes result in the same players being nominated repeatedly while deserving candidates are passed over. Critics argue that a more comprehensive evaluation system might better reflect the true value of players and their contributions to the league.

Now that we’ve reviewed the odds, you might want to place a wager on the 2024/25 NBA MVP Award winner. It’s a pretty straight forward betting option, you simply have to pick which player you believe will win the NBA MVP award.

NBA MVP Futures

This betting type is called a futures wager. It’s popular in almost every single professional and collegiate sport, where you are betting on something that is going to happen in the future. You will place a futures wager a year, months or weeks in advance, and the odds will shift and move throughout the season.

You can likely find great value in futures wagers as the bets are much riskier and odds are much higher - even on the favored players. Don’t forget, even Antetokounmpo was sitting at +275 one year ago - which means a $100 wager on him would pay out $375.

If you chose Giannis in July of last year, you locked in those odds - his odds are now -5000, so there isn’t really any value in betting on him the present day, but if you chose him at +275, you could see a great little payday if he wins. Much better than those who may lose by picking another player.

On the other hand, if you choose LeBron James, at +1200 - a $100 wager would pay out $1300 which is a huge payday. If you feel that LeBron can squeak by Giannis and win the NBA MVP award - you will have a great payout.

Past NBA MVP Award Winners

• 2024 - Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
• 2023 - Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers)
• 2022 - Steph Curry (Golden State Warriors)
• 2021 - Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
• 2020 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
• 2019 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
• 2018 - James Harden (Houston Rockets)
• 2017 - Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City Thunder)
• 2016 - Steph Curry (Golden State Warriors)
• 2015 - Steph Curry (Golden State Warriors)
• 2014 - Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder)
• 2013 - LeBron James (Miami Heat)
• 2012 - LeBron James (Miami Heat)
• 2011 - Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls)
• 2010 - LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers)

Top Online Sportsbooks for Betting on the 2024/25 NBA MVP Odds

While there is really only one betting option, most sportsbooks will luckily have these odds - especially online sportsbooks. The NBA is one of the top professional sports to gamble on, and sportsbooks capitalize on every and any chance they can to offer betting odds on the National Basketball Association.

Online sportsbooks have a vastly larger odds selection than what you may find in your local retail sportsbook - if sports betting is even legal in your state. Offshore sportsbooks can be the most convenient option for American bettors, as it provides the opportunity to bet on the go, versus some states where in-person sports betting is the only option.

Reading sportsbook reviews will help you gain clarity on which sportsbooks are worth your time. Some sportsbooks are better than others, as not all online sportsbooks are the same and offer the same odds. You will need to shop around for the best sportsbook based on your needs - and start with ensuring that the sportsbook offers NBA MVP odds.

There can be some great NBA bonuses at some books, adding extra incentive if you plan to bet throughout the NBA season. Ensure you bet responsibly on the NBA MVP odds, and have a strategy before placing your wagers.

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OnlineSportsBetting

The team at OnlineSportsBetting is made up of professionals from a number of fields, including journalism, math, sports, and more. What really brings them together is a passion for the sports betting landscape and its ever-changing strategies.