Sports betting Premier League picks

Premier League betting tips of the week

By Matt Pitt

Liverpool (+130) vs. Manchester City (+190)

Liverpool

Liverpool climbed to second place in the table following their 4-1 victory over Stoke City last match, but will not have such an easy time this weekend when Manchester City visit Anfield.

Liverpool’s home record is the third best in the Premier League, with the Reds having won six and drawn two of their eight fixtures. However, this is only the second time they have played one of the top six sides on home soil this season, the previous occasion being a 0-0 draw with Manchester United.

When these two sides met at Anfield in March 2016, Liverpool ran out 3-0 winners. Bovada price the same scoreline at +2200 going to show how unlikely this result is. The most popular correct score market is a 1-1 draw at +525 with a 2-1 Liverpool victory at +800 and a 2-1 Manchester City win at +900.

I wouldn’t like to bet on the exact result because this game could literally go either way. One thing I will be betting on is the over 2.5 goals market at -155 and possibly even the over 3.5 goals at +155.

Games involving Liverpool have seen 66 goals with 32 of those being at home, and both teams’ defense allow far too many chances, with City’s weakened by the injury to Vincent Kompany and John Stones, the latter of which is doubtful for the weekend. Throw into the mix the fact Sergio Aguero is returning from suspension and you have all the ingredients for a goal-fest.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals at -155

Arsenal (-350) vs. Crystal Palace (+750)

Arsenal

Arsenal host London rivals Crystal Palace.

The Gunners go into the game fourth in the table, three points behind second-placed Liverpool and nine points behind leaders Chelsea. Palace, who have a new manager in Sam Allardyce, could drop into the relegation zone should they lose and Sunderland manage to claim all three points against Burnley.

Arsenal have won their previous three games at home and are unbeaten in their last eight home fixtures, while Palace are without a win in their last six games on the road.

Both teams have a lengthy injury list with a combined 14 players ruled out and five more rated at 50-50 or less to feature in this London derby. However, Arsenal have much more strength in their squad, and Palace’s injuries are to key defensive personnel which is bad news when you are facing the team who have scored the third most goals at home this season.

Bovada have a great bet of Alexis Sanchez to score and Arsenal to win at -110 and also have Arsenal with a -0.5 spread at -140, while the over 2.5 goals market is priced at a reasonable -180.

Allardyce’s teams are usually difficult to break down, yet I feel Arsenal will be far too strong for Palace. I’d expect Palace to hold out for 30-45 minutes before Arsenal get into second gear and brush them aside.

Pick: Draw/Arsenal half time / full time result at +240

Hull City (+335) vs. Everton (-115)

Everton

Only three Premier League teams have been bottom of the table at Christmas and managed to avoid relegation since the 1992/93 season so Hull City fans have a right to be worried about dropping out of English soccer’s top flight.

Hull started this season strongly but have since gone off the boil and are without a win in their last seven games. A deadly combination of a poor attacking record and a woeful defense (although Hull are tight at the back at home) sees The Tigers propping up the other 19 Premier League teams and they looked doomed to relegation.

Everton were hopeful of challenging for a Champions League spot this season but find themselves 11 points adrift of fourth place thanks to being one of the most inconsistent teams in the division. The Toffees are either amazing or awful with no in-between. An away record of three wins, a draw and five losses in nine games speaks for itself.

That said, despite this poor on the road form, Everton should have enough in their lockers to return to Merseyside with all three points because Hull are definitely not a Premier League standard team.

Hull has performed well at home against teams in the top half of the table, drawing 1-1 with Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, beating Arsenal 2-1 and falling 1-0 against Liverpool so I would expect them to put up a fight against Everton, but Everton eventually running out winners, perhaps by a single goal margin.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals at -130