Two struggling Western Conference sides meet this weekend, hoping to recreate what brought them to the MLS Cup Playoffs just a few months ago. The Houston Dynamo will act as host to Real Salt Lake, a duty they have thoroughly enjoyed. The Dynamo are unbeaten against RSL at Shell Energy Stadium over the last seven years, spanning 10 matches. Continue reading for an expert Real Salt Lake vs Houston Dynamo prediction and explore stats and tips for Houston Dynamo betting in 2025.
- Houston Dynamo FC vs Real Salt Lake
- March 15, 2025
- 8:30 PM EST
- Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, TX
- MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Real Salt Lake vs Houston Dynamo Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Houston Dynamo are odds-on favorites to win their first game of the new MLS season. The hosts are (-125) to maintain a lead after the regulation 90 minutes. Their visitors are pegged at (+350) to do the same. A draw is lined at (+280).
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about top MLS betting sites.
Houston Dynamo Betting Strategy When Playing at Home
My numbers indicate Houston’s home offense is better than only San Jose in the Western Conference. But their home defense is superb. Only two other teams in the league (Seattle Sounders) could match Houston’s defensive statistics at home. Charlotte, Seattle, and Houston all conceded 15 goals or less at home in 2024.
As their backline clearly doesn’t need much help, it is the midfield that Houston’s front office has been trying to beef up in 2025. This week, the club acquired former Preston midfielder and American international Duane Holmes. Earlier this winter, midfielders Jack McGlynn and Nicolas Lodeiro were welcomed to the Gulf Coast. There are rumors the Houston Dynamo are looking to use their Designated Player provision on another midfielder as well.
Midfielders Coco Carrasquilla and Hector Herrera left Houston Dynamo before the 2025 MLS season, sparking these recent moves. These changes will likely not have a tremendous impact on Ben Olsen’s conservative tactics, but will allow for more breathing room as the schedule gets busier. Perhaps some of these new faces will see the field in a fun hybrid friendly against the El Salvador national team next Wednesday.
Real Salt Lake Look for Revenge against Bitter Rivals
Real Salt Lake’s failures in the Gulf Coast have been well-documented. Winless in their last ten attempts at Shell Energy Stadium, it’s safe to say Claret-and-Cobalt aren’t sending Houston any Christmas cards. To add fuel to the fire was a clash in last year’s Leagues Cup. Houston Dynamo took a 3-0 lead in the first half and maintained that scoreline until the end. Real Salt Lake’s unceremonious exit from what is quickly becoming one of the most popular summer soccer tournaments will certainly hang heavy in their minds.
But there will be one individual missing from this cold-hearted reunion, and a major figure at that. One of the league’s biggest stars, Cristian Arango, departed Utah for the warmer weather of San Jose over the winter break. “Chicho” is a perennial MLS top goalscorer candidate and was Real Salt Lake’s shining star over the past 18 months. His attacking presence has been sorely missed already by the club.
The San Jose Earthquakes have jumped to 3rd on the table with Bruce Arena and Arango leading the charge. They have scored 6 goals to Real Salt Lake’s 3, causing last season’s 3rd-placed side to wonder if they made the right decision in selling Arango. RSL have quite the dilemma at striker now. Between Forster Ajago and Ari Piol, manager Pablo Mastroeni will have to decide who starts with the coveted number nine spot.
Real Salt Lake vs Houston Dynamo Prediction: Expert Houston Dynamo Betting Pick
Houston has let its home supporters down so far in 2025. Two home fixtures to start the campaign resulted in two losses, to Texan rivals FC Dallas as well as Inter Miami. While the Miami result can be somewhat excused given their considerable prowess, they still gave up four goals, all without Lionel Messi in the lineup. And their trip to Columbus, also a difficult task, proved fruitless.
As I highlighted earlier, the betting value on Houston home games has recently been on unders. Houston’s pace at home is sluggish, and their defense is resolute. That makes for plenty of low-scoring matches, but in this one, I am looking to attack that angle a bit differently.
The market is low on Houston Dynamo, as it rightfully should be. Without divulging again into their 2025 struggles previously mentioned, I don’t believe there is any value in fading them. However, Houston Dynamo have conceded multiple goals to Real Salt Lake at Shell Energy Stadium just once since 2015, and never in the last seven years. Interestingly, three straight scoreless draws played out in this fixture between 2021 and 2023.
My pick will be on Real Salt Lake. I see this as a cagey fixture with not much between the two, leading to a possible scoreless draw or 1-0 result. With that in mind, I will take RSL on the Asian handicap. This secures profit in the case of a Real Salt Lake win or draw, and cuts our losses in half if Real Salt Lake loses by just one goal.
My projections have Real Salt Lake as (+222) underdogs rather than the market-best line of (+350) at BetOnline, so there is some clear value here.
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