Florida Gators are No Longer the 2025 March Madness Betting Favorite

For the first time in a while, the Florida Gators officially opened as the March Madness betting favorites to win the men’s NCAA National Basketball Championship in 2025.

And now, just like that, they are no longer favorites. 

Florida opened as a +350 to win the men’s National Championship. That line has held steady, according to our review of top online sportsbooks. However, the initial surge of March Madness betting has led to a new title favorite. The honor belongs to the Duke Blue Devils, who have moved to a +275 championship bet.

Plenty of different forces can lead to this type of shift. We will get into some of them below. But the bigger question for the Florida market: Will this impact the popularity of betting on March Madness at all?

Why Duke Overtook Florida as March Madness Betting Favorites

When people see betting odds for sporting events, they often assume it automatically translates to utmost likelihood. This can be the case…to some extent. But March Madness betting markets are also a reflection of popularity. The more wagers that roll in for a certain team, the more their odds will move in the favorite’s direction.

It appears this trend is at play in the case of the Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida Gators. As Ryan Hannable of the Associated Press wrote when lines opened, Duke surged in popularity among bettors:

“While Florida leads the way, Duke is right behind the Gators at +360. That has a lot to do with Cooper Flagg’s status following his ankle injury in the ACC Tournament…As of Monday morning, Duke has the most bets of any team (13.5 percent) to win the national championship.”

A 13.5 percent share of the March Madness betting market is massive when you consider how many squads are laying better than 25-to-1 odds. At this writing, nine teams are a +2500 or better to win the 2025 men’s National Basketball Championship. With Duke owning so much of that pie, it makes sense that their line moved from +360 to +275 and overtook that of the Florida Gators. 

The “why” behind interest in Duke is not particularly difficult to parse. For starters, they have more national brand recognition. If you are betting on sports in Florida, you’re more likely to invest in the Gators. But if you are a casual college basketball fan placing wagers outside of that market, schools such as Duke and Kentucky are immediately more recognizable.

Latest Cooper Flagg Injury Updates Also Shaping NCAA Basketball Betting Market

Even more so than Duke’s popularity, the latest Cooper Flagg injury updates have contributed to Florida forfeiting the top March Madness betting spot. 

The 18-year-old, who may become the first freshman since Zion Williamson to win National Player of the Year, has missed each of the Blue Devils’ past two games with a left ankle injury he suffered against Georgia Tech during the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals. On the heels of Selection Sunday, it was not immediately clear if he would be available to play when Duke opens the tournament on Friday, March 21. 

Now, though, the betting favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft appears on track to play. As John Leuzzi of USA Today writes:

“Duke coach Jon Scheyer made the status of his star player known on ESPN's "Bracketology" show on Sunday after the NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed, saying the goal is for him to return Friday in the first round. ‘From my perspective, it's full steam ahead. I want to get Coop back as quickly as I can, and he wants to do the same. Obviously, tomorrow is important. Today was an off day, we got back late (from the ACC tournament). We are hoping he can start to progress starting tomorrow with doing some on-court work and then build up to where he can practice later in the week.”

It comes as no surprise that Duke’s March Madness betting odds skyrocketed on Monday, the day after this update. And it should come as no surprise the action on them has only increased in the days since. Entering Wednesday, March 19, multiple outlets reiterate Flagg still intends to play in the first round of the tourney.

Interest in March Madness Remains High Throughout Florida

Despite Duke overtaking the Gators for the top spot in the March Madness betting rankings, interest in the tournament remains sky high throughout The Sunshine State. That is almost entirely thanks to the Florida Gators themselves.

Indeed, March Madness betting happens to come at an opportune time. The peak of NFL betting is long since over, and MLB betting is only beginning to crescendo. Meanwhile, there is a slight lull in NBA betting and NHL betting as their respective playoff pictures remain in limbo. 

More than that, though, the state of Florida is seeing its best men’s Gators basketball team in nearly a decade. The university has not made it past the second round of March Madness since 2017. This is also the first top-seeded Gators team since all the way back in 2014. 

Naturally, there is going to be more interest when a local squad has become such a prominent contender. And that, in turn, should result in more March Madness betting in Florida than last year. 

With that said, the Gators do need to advance in order to maintain that interest. If they get upset in the first or second game, Florida March Madness betting may suddenly bottom out. For now, though, this is shaping up to be a standard-setting year for all future March Madness tournaments betting handles.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: