The vacant featherweight title spot will be filled by the end of UFC 314. But will it be assumed by Alexander Volkanovski or Diego Lopes?
That is what we are here to figure out ahead of Saturday, April 12, when the UFC will travel to Miami for the fourth time–and the first time since UFC 299.
- What: UFC 314
- When: Saturday, April 12, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Miami, Florida
- Venue: Kaseya Center
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Main Event: Volkanovski vs Lopes
The 36-year-old Volkanovski enters UFC 314 with an overall record of 26-4-0. The former featherweight champion is working off two consecutive losses and has dropped three of his past four fights overall. His resume has traveled quite the path over the past half-decade.
Volkanovski earned his first lightweight title at UFC 245 in December 2019, when he defeated Max Holloway by split decision. From there, he put up four successful championship defenses against Holloway again (July 2020), Brian Ortega (September 2021), Chan Sung Jung (April 2022) and then Holloway once more (July 2022). However, he lost his belt at UFC 284 in February 2023 against Islam Makhachev.
From there, he moved to the featherweight division, earning a title shot at Yair Rodiriguez at UFC 290. He won that matchup by knockout. After that, he went back for another lightweight title shot against Malkahchev at UFC 294. He lost that battle in Round 1. Finally, he put his featherweight belt on the line versus Ilia Topuria at UFC 298 in February 2024. Topuria dropped Volkanovski midway through Round 2.
Meanwhile, Lopes comes to UFC 314 with a lifetime record of 26-6-0. Unlike Volkanovski, he is navigating something of a hot streak. The 30-year-old Lopes has picked up five straight victories. Most recently, he racked up split-decision wins against Dan Ige at UFC 303 and Brian Ortega at UFC 306.
UFC 314 Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Betting Lines
This match will mark Lopes’ first title shot at the UFC level. Usually, this means the new challenger is facing longer odds. But the latest online UFC betting lines for Volkanovski vs. Lopes paint a different picture, as you can see below:
Remember to keep double-checking UFC 314 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 314 online betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, March 11. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell on April 12.
The Case for Alexander Volkanovski to Beat Diego Lopes
Peak Alexander Volkanovski is among the best UFC fighters the sport has ever seen. The problem? He’s not operating at his peak anymore. In fact, Volkanovski has hinted that his next one or two matchups may be his last.
That is potentially problematic against other opponents. But Volkanovski can more adequately weather the decline against Lopes.
Sure, the younger Lopes packs more power. But his stamina is questionable. That’s why he predominantly comes out so aggressively in the first round. If Volkanovski can withstand that initial flurry, he may simply be able to outlast Lopes.
What’s more, some of Lopes best shots are uppercut strokes. That is not necessarily ideal—for anyone. Generating accuracy and power from that angel is absurd. At the same time, opponents land just 42 percent of their strike attempts against Volkanovski, who also happens to be better than most at skirting and blocking those uppercut swings.
The Case for Diego Lopes to Beat Alexander Volkanovski
Size and strength are Lopes’ two biggest strengths entering UFC 314. He has five inches on the 5’6” Volkanovski, and three of his past five fights have featured victories by first-round knockouts or submissions.
This is almost assuredly why so many of the best online UFC betting apps do not have him as a more distant underdog. After all, neither his striking nor takedown defenses warrants much fanfare. And in his quest for maximum power, he can be a little erratic.
Still, those prospective pitfalls do not matter nearly as much when you have the bandwidth to deliver knockout blows from the opening bell.
If Lopes can keep Volkanovski on his heels for a long enough stretch, this may be a match that never sniffs the final round.
UFC 314 Picks for Volkanovski vs Lopes
Despite a clear drop-off from the aging Volkanovski, we have him reclaiming the UFC Featherweight championship. The crux of his arsenal is simply so much more well-rounded. He is even landing a noticeably higher percentage of his significant strikes per minute.
Stamina concerns for Lopes wind up swaying us, too. Between his relatively shallow UFC card and his number of first-round knockouts, he has yet to take a match (at this level) to a five-round decision.
Even at his lowest points, Volkanovski can find ways to extend the length of matches in search of openings. And to be sure, this will not be a mindless endeavor against Lopes. For the first round specifically, he will put on the full-court press.
We nevertheless expect Volkanovski to withstand that onset avalanche of high-octane striking attempts. And once he does, we also expect his more economical approach to striking and wrestling to overwhelm Lopes.
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