California Sports Betting May Be Delayed By Lack of Tribal Consensus

It is looking more and more as if California sports betting legalization will remain on hold until at least 2028. 

The question is: Why?

Providing an answer is somewhat complicated—and nowhere near an exact science. But the latest reports suggest it can be boiled down to two words: Tribal consensus. Or, in this case, a lack of tribal consensus.

As already covered here, at a recent panel hosted by the Indian Gaming Association, tribal leaders identified California sports betting legalization before 2027 as a long shot. Now, it seems as if even that does not paint the full picture. More recent statements indicate that tribal officials are hoping sports betting in The Golden State can launch around 2028.

“The data is telling us that the time is not right,” says Catalina Chacon, council member of the Pechanga Band of Mission Indians (via iGaming Business). “Definitely not 2026; we’re looking more like 2028, but it has to include all tribal communities in California.” 

Many will glom onto the “2028” reference. Really, though, the operative word here is all. 

More than 100 tribes are in California. This comment implies that every single one of them must be on board to make sports betting in California a reality. 

Plenty of Tribes Already On Board With California Sports Betting

These comments along with the delayed timeline paint a picture of potential discord. Are not enough tribes on board with California sports betting? Or are these statements more so a precaution?

The answer, again, is not definitive. However, most tribes do appear on board, as Pat Evans of Legal Sports Report writes: 

“Chacon and Johnny Hernandez, vice chairman of the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians, said the more than 100 California tribes all need to be on board. That includes the non-gaming tribes that receive revenue sharing from gambling. Tribes have Class III gambling exclusivity in the state. There appears to be a consensus among the top tribal leaders regarding sports betting, but also a clear desire to ensure all tribes are on board with any legalization effort and that it is done well. The ICE comments also show the tribes are clearly thinking about the path to online casino gambling, as well.”

This portrays the matter in a vastly different, somewhat brighter light. Especially with regards to California online sports betting. But we will get to that in a minute. 

Legalization of sports wagering in The Golden State always profiled as a complex process. The sheer number of gaming tribes involved ensures that much. But the “non-gaming tribes” here may have some leverage if the state also needs them to be on board. While they stand to receive California sports betting revenue, they may see this as an opportunity to push for a higher share, if not the opportunity to hold sports gambling licenses.

If this dynamic proves to be an issue, it can feasibly increase the complexity of talks. Hence why the California sports betting timeline appears to be shifting toward 2028—or later.

Previous Attempt to Legalize Sports Gambling in California May Play A Role In The New Timeline

Industry insiders and experts are also quick to point toward the failed attempt to legalize California sports betting in 2022 when having this discussion. Back then, tribes were at odds with operators of online sports betting in the United States. Opposing measures made the 2022 electoral ballot. Due to ambiguous messaging and counter-campaigning, both initiatives flopped at the polls.

Key stakeholders from every corner of the market continue to make it clear they do not want this to happen again. Running counter measures was historically expensive. And it ultimately led to nowhere.

Over the past year or so, though, the relationship between tribes and potential California online sportsbooks appear to be on the come-up. In particular, there is more publicly stated collaboration between tribal officials and online sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. 

This points toward those parties arriving on the same page—or close to it. In fact, online sportsbook executives have even seemed open to a stagger launch. In this scenario, on-site California sports betting goes live. Then, a year or two later, the launch of online sports betting in California will follow suit. 

Such an approach aims to give tribal operators a chance to establish sizable market shares. After all, while they have gaming exclusivity, they do not necessarily have the online sports betting infrastructure to compete with corporations already known to prospective clients.

More California Sports Betting Updates Seem Inevitable

Additional developments on this matter seem inevitable in the coming weeks and months. State legislature meetings are already underway, and California sports betting legalization looms as a hot topic not just in the market, but outside it as well. Remember, many expect The Golden State to be the No. 1 sports betting market in the United States once it goes live.

It will be especially interesting to track how online sports betting stances evolve under the new timeline. Initially, many anticipated a retail sports betting launch in 2026 or 2027, with online sportsbooks to follow in 2028. But if the new California retail sports betting timeline is aiming for 2028, does this mean it will launch in tandem with online services? Or should we expect California mobile betting sites to wait until 2029 or later? 

If it’s the latter, does that at all impact how online operators feel? And if it does, might it lead to a more divisive process yet again? We’ll have to wait and see.

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