Could We See Florida Sports Betting Expansion as Early as 2025?

Now that the legal battle over Florida sports betting is officially in the rear view, the vast majority of focus is shifting toward market expansion. 

Make that imminent market expansion. Potentially, anyway.

Indeed, the idea of broadening the reach and setup of sports betting in Florida has been floated ever since the Seminole Tribe reached a settlement with West Flagler Associates. This development effectively ended what has turned out to be years-long litigation. And it not only frees up the Seminoles to continue offering sports wagering, but it theoretically permits them to think beyond the current framework.

As things currently stand, the Seminole Tribe has a monopoly over Florida sports betting. Customers can place wagers at any one of their sportsbook locations or they can use the Florida sports betting app that the Seminoles operate in collaboration with Hard Rock Bet. Other sportsbooks in the United States are not allowed to enter the market.

Yet, Hard Rock CEO Jim Allen recently caused quite a stir. He said that the Seminoles see the value in adding sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel to Florida sports betting. Those comments set off a wave of speculation. And now, many think the expansion of Florida sports betting may be on the table as early as next year.

Is a Florida Sports Betting Expansion Bill Coming Down the Pipeline?

According to Bill Speros of Bookies.com, Florida sports betting expansion is not some remote possibility. Instead, it sounds as if the Seminole Tribe is actively thinking or pushing for it. As Speros writes:

“The Tribe continues to discuss the possibility of opening the Florida sports betting market up to other sports betting operators. The legal settlement with West Flagler removes a major obstacle for Hard Rock in its pursuit of any possible sports betting partners. Hard Rock CEO Jim Allen told bookies.com in late 2023 that the Tribe remains open to allowing other operators in the state. Another Hard Rock source told bookies.com in March of this year that other operators have not been able to gain ground in negotiations because they were not willing to ‘bend the knee.’ Allen reiterated his willingness to entertain partners such as DraftKings and FanDuel in an interview with CNBC at the G2E Summit in October. A representative from DraftKings said it had no comment on the matter.”

The use of “bend the knee” here does not paint the rosiest picture. However, if the Hard Rock CEO is talking about Florida sports betting expansion, this could speak to a change in status. After all, those who operate online sports betting in the United States have maintained their current stance for a while. Could they now suddenly have changed their tune?

Will Online Sportsbooks in the United States be Willing to Play Ball in Florida? 

Exact details of what Florida online sportsbooks would have to pay the Seminoles is not available. But it is believed the gaming compact calls for partners to give at least 40 percent of their gross gaming revenue to the tribe.

That is a large number. There is even a chance the Seminoles may be pushing for more. And why wouldn’t they? All the leverage lies with them. Sure, online sports betting sites in the USA will not want to pay, say, a 50 or 60 percent tax on their revenue. But on the flip side, if they do not pay, the alternative entails not operating in Florida at all.

Perhaps this is why DraftKings did not comment to Speros. If they had an official opinion, you would think they’d have a boilerplate statement ready. Could the absence of one infer, at the very least, consideration on their part?

This is too much speculation. But the facts add up. Florida has the third largest population in the United States. Most experts in the industry believe this aligns with their sports betting market. Of course, we cannot say for sure. The Seminole Tribe is not on the hook for releasing monthly revenue reports. But most analysts would Universally agree The Sunshine State is a top-two or top-three betting market with the current setup.

Think of that from the sportsbook’s perspective. Getting 40 to 60 percent revenue from the third biggest sports betting market should mean a whole lot more than getting 100 percent of nothing.

Expect the Issue to be Push During 2025 Florida Legislative Meetings

Whatever the status and outcome of this issue, it sounds like we will know more soon. The Florida State Legislature begins meeting in early 2025. And this is expected to be on the agenda. 

As Speros writes: “many industry insiders expect the Tribe to make a push for igaming in the Sunshine State during the 2025 legislative session, possibly in exchange for allowing other sports betting operators in the state.”

Make no mistake, this will be a big deal if the Seminoles bring this proposal to the table. And we have to assume Florida policymakers would listen. Allowing more online sportsbooks in Florida would increase the state’s potential tax revenue. That is something in which they will presumably be very interested.

Then again, there could be one roadblock: There is presumably also a reason attempts to legalize Florida sports betting did not seek market expansion in the first place. Is this simply a sign of the Seminoles’ importance and sway? Or could it be a sign that lawmakers don’t want Florida sports betting to be more widely available than it is right now?

For our money, it’s the first one. But this is another question we may receive an answer to very soon.

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