The schedule-makers for UFC Tampa are treating us to a tantalizing Flyweight Division headliner on Saturday, December 14, when Manel Kape enters the Octagon against Bruno Silva. Which fighter will emerge with the victory? We are about to unearth the answer.
- What: UFC Tampa
- When: Saturday, December 14, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Tampa Bay, Florida
- Venue: Amalie Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN 2 (preliminary rounds), ESPN+ (main event; subscription required)
- Main Event: Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington
Kape comes to UFC Tampa with a 19-7-0 overall career record. He last fought Muhammad Mokaev at UFC 304 this past July. Though he lost that match by unanimous decision, Kape previously rattled off four straight wins from UFC 295 through UFC 293.
Silva arrives at UFC Tampa riding the roughest stretch of his career. While he still sports a 23-12-0 lifetime record, he has lost six of seven matches, including four consecutive fights. His last bout came versus Ismail Naurdiev on the UFC 308 card this past October. Many are wondering whether he can finally get back on the right track despite such a quick turnaround. Especially when none of his most recent matches have even gone to a split decision.
UFC Tampa Flyweight Headliner: Manel Kape vs Bruno Silva Betting Lines
If you are expecting the latest online UFC betting odds to heavily favor Manel Kape relative to Bruno Silva’s current brutal stretch of losses, well, then you are correct. You can see the Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva betting lines below:
As usual, please make sure that you are rechecking these UFC Tampa betting lines right until you submit your wager. Our Kape vs. Silva betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, December 10. This gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments in the lead-up to Silva vs. Kape.
On the bright side, Manel Kape (-340) is a heavy enough favorite over Bruno Silva (+280) that updated UFC moneyline odds should not shift too starkly. At the same time, interest in UFC Fight Nights such as UFC Tampa tends to skyrocket following pay per view events like UFC 310. So, there very well could be some material movement in the coming days.
The Case for Manel Kape to Beat Bruno Silva
Every single one of the best online sportsbooks we have reviewed has Manel Kape listed as an ultra-heavy favorite against Bruno Silva. And it is not particularly hard to see why.
Though Kape has never been much of a wrestler, his striking has visibly improved over time. Entering this showdown at the Intuit Dome, he is landing 4.4 significant strikes per minute at about a 53 percent clip. That hit rate is noticeably above the UFC average, which tends to float between 46 and 48 percent.
The key for him in maintaining consistent speed. There will be entire rounds where he does not unbottle enough combinations. Watching in real time, it can seem inexplicable. It is as if he shifts to being too conservative for no discernible reason.
That tendency dogged him in the loss to Mokaev at UFC 304. Kape ended up landing just 20 strikes through the entire three rounds. And he essentially allowed Mokaev to get whatever he wanted on the mat. Kape didn’t land a single takedown to Mokaev’s three total takedowns.
This same issue should not be front and center against Silva. He is not much of a wrestler, and his striking defense can invite aggression. Opponents are currently landing 5.28 significant strikes per minute at a 59 percent clip against Silva. To be sure, this is a disastrous mark. And not surprisingly, Silva has lost the striking battle by at least 30 strikes through each of his past three matches. As long as Kape does not deviate from what both we and he knows can work, he deserves to be the favorite.
The Case for Bruno Silva to Beat Manelo Kape
Successfully getting Kape to indulge the worst versions of himself is easily the key to victory for Silva. Kape can get too passive when opponents look to evade his offensive maneuvers. That, in turn, opens the door for Silva to wait out a decision or go for the one-shot victory.
Make no mistake, Silva can land a knockout blow. Each of his past four victories have come by a KO or TKO punch. Kape is a good enough striking defender to avoid those types of blows, but he also does not seem to fare well when matches turn into a slog.
Silva, for his part, is not especially adept at slowing things down. His past three opponents have landed 66 strikes, 75 strikes and 113 strikes through three rounds apiece. But if he can keep his distance, it will put Kape into the position of having to constantly seek engagement. And that mode is somewhat outside his comfort zone.
UFC Tampa Picks for Kape vs Silva
In all honesty, it is hard for us to see Bruno Silva pulling off an upset.
Indeed, Kape is an extremely flawed fighter. And his repeated tug-of-wars with making weight have inspired plenty of memes. But his weaknesses are best exploited by skilled wrestlers who excel at mandating slower, more methodical matches.
That does not describe Silva at the moment. He may be able to unsettle Kape with a powerful blow or by evading too many closer encounters. But he is not someone who can devolve this showdown into a rock fight. He has very little takedown skills of which to speak, and his overall defensive package leaves much to be desired.
Expect this match to reach a decision anyway. Kape has not delivered an early ending since December 2021. Stylistically, though, it does not seem like he has much to worry about here.
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