Dwarfed by their fellow capital representatives, Rayo Vallecano faces Real Madrid in the lesser of the Madrid rivalries. While Atletico Madrid represents Real’s biggest intra-city test, the score has been level since early 2022. Indeed, this fixture has seen two draws and a win apiece in their last 4 meetings. Read on to access this year’s Rayo vs Real Madrid prediction and explore Real Madrid betting tips for 2024/25.
- La Liga
- Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid CF
- December 14, 2024
- 3 PM EST
- Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, Spain
- ESPN+
Rayo vs Real Madrid Betting Odds
Real Madrid may be the most iconic soccer club in the world, but the odds are not overwhelmingly in their favor Saturday evening. Last year’s nearly-relegated side are (+515) underdogs to win at home. Real are odds-on favorites at (-165). A draw is over 3:1 odds at (+320).
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about La Liga betting odds.
Rayo Vallecano Off to Strong Start This Term
It’s been a marked improvement for Rayo Vallecano under Inigo Perez, the 36-year old former La Liga stalwart. Rayo are now firmly mid-table at 12th in the top flight after narrowly missing relegation last term. In fact, Perez’s first match in charge of the club was at this very stadium against Real Madrid, where he led his new side to a 1-1 draw. A similar outcome would be welcomed by the Basque native.
While I sing the praises of Rayo, it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing recently. A run of poor form saw the club from Vallecas lose three straight league games, two of those coming at home. But a Copa del Rey victory followed by a win over Valencia last weekend seems to have the club in better spirits. Thrice a Rayo player has been sent off prematurely in their last 7 matches across all competitions, highlighting the club’s feisty and competitive spirit under the young “player’s coach” Perez.
Real Madrid’s Carlo Ancelotti paints a starkly different picture at the helm of a top-flight club. An older gentleman always dressed to the nines, Ancelotti represents a past generation of soccer managers. Yet managing the unique personalities of star players is a characteristic both skippers share. James Rodriguez is one of the biggest names to ever don a Rayo uniform: the winger is often regarded as one of the best Colombian players of all time.
Unfortunately for Rayo, it appears his best days are behind him. Vallecas is James’ seventh home in the last 4 years alone. He has only scored twice since 2023, and has yet to deliver a successful strike for Rayo in his 6 appearances to date.
Real Madrid Beginning to Mold Into Shape With Mbappe
Speaking of superstars, Kylian Mbappe's arrival at Real Madrid has not been as successful and illustrious as many had anticipated. One of the brightest and most gifted young players in the world always aspired to play for Real Madrid. However, his position within the club's lineup is the source of a great deal of conflict in the locker room.
I expressed my worries about Mbappe's position in Real Madrid's rotation in an article earlier this fall. Many others had similar concerns, and when they heard that he intended to join Real Madrid, they naturally inquired, "But where will he play?" This is because Mbappe's preferred left winger position is occupied by Vinicius Junior, the runner-up for the Ballon d'Or. The Frenchman, who most recently played for France, was selected by manager Carlo Ancelotti to play as a striker.
But rather than accepting service and holding up play for the rest of his attack, Mbappe excels at dribbling and moving quickly from the outside. It is a true waste of potential to put him as striker, and it is evident on the field. Even his set pieces reflect his troubles. Mbappe cost his team the victory last Wednesday as he missed two penalties against Athletic Club.
Rayo vs Real Madrid Betting Prediction
Real Madrid are coming off a 3-2 victory over Atalanta in the Champions League. While a strong offensive performance such as Tuesdays would lean many in the direction of favoring a similar result this weekend, I suppose the opposite. Saturday’s match marks Real’s their 7th match in a 3-week span. They have yet to have a full week off since returning from the November international break and will surely be more fatigued than usual.
While Rayo Vallecano struggle to score, their defense is actually above-average for a La Liga side. They held Valencia scoreless last time out and are coming off a full week’s rest. Rayo have also conceded multiple goals to Real Madrid just once in their last 4 meetings at Vallecas. Real are off the pace from last season in terms of goals scored and have notably struggled to incorporate Kylian Mbappe into the lineup. If issues continue in that department, the visitors could be in for a long night.
My projections indicate Real Madrid’s team total under 1.5 goals should be (+107), so I like the value of (+122) at Bovada. Considering the narratives and fatigue factor at play, I am even more inclined to recommend a fade of Real’s offense. Rayo has what it takes to frustrate Ancelotti’s side and will be happy to do so against their biggest city rival. Go with Real Madrid under 1.5 total goals for Saturday’s all-Madrid match.
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