Familiar foes New York City and New York Red Bulls meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals of the MLS Cup Playoffs on Saturday, November 23. It is an unlikely meeting between the big city rivals, who both upset top-3 seeds in the first round. NYC dispatched Cincinnati in a thrilling penalty-kick shootout in Game 3, while the Red Bulls did the same in just two games. Continue reading for an expert New York City vs NY Red Bulls prediction and explore Hudson River Derby betting tips and stats.
- Major League Soccer Cup Playoffs
- Eastern Conference Semifinals
- New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
- November 23, 2024
- 5:30 PM EST
- Citi Field, Flushing, New York
- MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
New York City vs NY Red Bulls Betting Odds
New York City are the favorites to win and advance to the Conference Finals, but bookmakers are not necessarily loving their chances. The home side is (+125) to win in 90 minutes. The visitors from across the river have odds of (+211), while a draw is lined at (+265). It is important to note in the event of a tie score after regulation, two 15-minute extra time periods will be played prior to a penalty kick shootout, if necessary. Check out the latest MLS Playoffs odds here.
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and explore top MLS betting sites.
How NYCFC Has Built a Fortress in the Big Apple
New York City has a slew of venues they use when hosting games, but it appears they all support the club equally. Since a loss to Columbus on June 14, New York City is undefeated in designated home matches, whether at Yankee Stadium, Citi Field, or Red Bull Arena. Citi Field will act as the setting for their conference semi-final with NY Red Bulls.
Soon enough, all this couch-sitting will be put to bed. NYCFC are building their own soccer-specific stadium across the street from Citi Field in Queens, set to be opened in 2027. But for now, they will host the Red Bulls in the Mets’ home stadium for the second time this season. Back in May, the Pigeons beat the Red Bulls 2-1 in front of more than 30,000 spectators.
That victory was improved upon at Red Bull Arena a couple months ago, in which New York City put up 5 goals on the road. New York City has only conceded four times in this fixture over seven matches, dating back to 2022.
NYCFC must rely on their home dominance if they want to become this year’s MLS Cinderella story. The Eastern Conference is wide open with all of Inter Miami, Columbus and Cincinnati eliminated. A victory here and there is a chance the 6th-seeded Pigeons get hosting rights again for a spot in the MLS Cup Final.
Defending Champions No Problem for NY Red Bulls
The Columbus Crew, considered a top contender to win the 2024 MLS Cup and become the first back-to-back champions since the LA Galaxy in 2014, were booted from the competition early courtesy of the New York Red Bulls. A masterful defensive performance in Game 1 earned the Red Bulls a 1-0 victory. That game set up a pivotal clash in Game 2, with both clubs scoring twice. The Red Bulls won on penalties to win the series.
A late flurry of goals in the second match, spurred by Columbus’ opener in the 55th minute, opened up what was initially another slow game. The Red Bulls took the lead with a penalty in the 80th minute before a late equalizer dramatized events further. A couple of saves from Carlos Coronel solidified a 5-4 penalty kick shootout win, sending Red Bull Arena into a frenzy.
Few pundits picked either of the New York sides to advance out of the first round, yet MLS fans will be treated to a third edition of the Hudson River Derby. That does not bode well, at least on paper, for Red Bulls supporters, as I detail below.
New York City vs NY Red Bulls Prediction and Free Betting Pick
New York City’s fortitude in the five boroughs make them a difficult side to fade. Alonso Martinez’s renaissance at striker, coinciding with a late-season purple patch, has transformed the image of NYCFC. They now hope to hoist their second MLS Cup in three seasons. Meanwhile, the titleless Red Bulls must overcome the psychological disadvantage of losing to this side twice in the last six months.
But what really catches my eye from a betting perspective is the total. The last two meetings have produced 9 total goals, while NYCFC’s last three home matches have produced 13 total goals. Yet the total is slowly creeping down into the 2.5 range. I believe there is some value here.
My projections indicate the total of 2.5 should be lined at (-241); granted, this is a playoff match. Tactics generally get more conservative the deeper clubs go into the playoffs. But even a concession for reduced scoring still leaves plenty of value on the table. I bet the over in the last edition of this fixture at Citi Field, and I will recommend doing so again here.
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