The lead-up to UFC Tampa on Saturday, December 14 is winding down. That means it is time to break down the headlining fight between Joaquin Buckley and Colby Covington.
- What: UFC Tampa
- When: Saturday, December 14, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Tampa Bay, Florida
- Venue: Amalie Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN 2 (preliminary rounds), ESPN+ (main event; subscription required)
- Main Event: Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington
Joaquin Buckley enters UFC Tampa with an overall record of 20-6-0. He last fought at UFC 307 against Stephen Thompson. And he won that bout with a KO/TKO punch during Round 3. Buckley is now on a five-fight winning streak that has seen him bag three victories by knockouts or total knockouts.
Colby Covington brings a 17-4-0 record to UFC Tampa. He last fought at UFC 296 against Leon Edwards all the way back on December 16, 2023. Covington came up short in that fight, losing by unanimous decision and forfeiting the interim UFC Welterweight championship in the process.
UFC Tampa Main Event: Joaquin Buckley vs Colby Covington Betting Lines
Many expected the backstory of this fight to impact its online UFC betting odds. Covington initially wasn’t involved. Buckley was supposed to go up against Ian Machadao Garry. However, Garry was pulled from the card to fight Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310. The company has tapped Covington as his replacement, and as predicted, he enters as the underdog:
Remember to double-check these UFC Tampa betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC Tampa betting lines are accurate entering Thursday, December 5. This gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell.
For what it’s worth, we do not expect these Joaquin Buckley (-240) vs. Colby Covington (+205) betting lines to shift all that much. They have hovered around where they are now since going live. With that being said, the conclusion of UFC 310 will likely spark an influx of action on the next event—which is UFC Tampa. So, if you are placing your UFC Tampa picks after December 7, you definitely want to monitor these odds for movement.
The Case for Joaquin Buckley to Beat Colby Covington
Dropping down to the Welterweight division has served Buckley quite well. As we already mentioned, three of his past five fights have ended in a KO/TKO victory. The two that did not? Well, they were still unanimous decisions. That is why it's not the least bit surprising all the top online sportsbooks in the United States have him as the decided favorite for this showdown.
Fighting at 170 pounds does not seem to have impacted Buckely’s power whatsoever. If anything, he looks on the larger side for someone checking in at that weight.
More accurate striking has punctuated Buckley’s transition to the Welterweight class. For his career, he’s landing just 36 percent of his strike attempts. That is well below the UFC average, which floats somewhere between 46 and 48 percent. But his percentage has easily skyrocketed over the past year.
Buckley also maintains a nice wrestling package. While he is not someone who goes for submission holds, he is still averaging almost two takedowns per 15 minutes. And because he is so strong, he can be hard to bring down to the mat himself. As it stands, opponents are landing just 31 percent of their takedown attempts against him.
Basically, in this matchup specifically, Buckley’s relative dearth of weak points is his primary draw.
The Case for Colby Covington to Beat Joaquin Buckley
Some will be inclined to write off Covington because he is an add-on. We know for sure that Ian Machado Garry thinks he’s going to lose. The UFC 310 participant recently called him a “coward” for accepting this fight because he’s wanted to get a crack at Covington for some time.
Still, Garry’s interest in taking him on says a whole lot. Buckley’s striking is a borderline disaster; he is landing just 38 percent of his striking attempts. But he is among the scrappiest wrestlers in the game.
Entering UFC Tampa, Covington is averaging 3.79 takedowns per 15 minutes. His submission rate is not particularly high for someone who thrives under those circumstances, but he has a way of wearing his opponents down. Even when he loses, his stamina is on display. Each of his past seven fights have gone into Round 5 or been taken to a decision.
That could be problematic for Buckely. He has not fought past Round 3 in approximately forever.
UFC Tampa Picks for Buckley vs Covington
We have real concerns about how Buckely will fare in this fight if Covington is able to push him the full distance. The former looks noticeably slower and less powerful the longer his fights last.
Then again, we cannot discount how effectively Buckley has been at ending his matchups in general. So few opponents in the Welterweight class have been able to avoid an early loss against him.
Ultimately, we expect Covington to fall into the same bucket. While we recognize his wrestling maneuvers make him a worthwhile foe, Buckley’s defense in those situations is too effective. It would be a genuine surprise if Covington is able to dictate the pace and style of this fight. And Buckley is going to mandate the terms of engagement, the fight is going to stay vertical. That is bad news for Covington.
Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs:
-
EXCLUSIVE BONUS
50% bonus up to $250Play NowT&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
50% bonus up to $1000Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
EXCLUSIVE BONUS 125% up to $3,125Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
50% up to $500Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
100% up to $1,000Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
