The headlining fight for UFC 311 on Saturday, January 18 is officially set, and it’s quite the humdinger. Islam Makhachev will defend his Lightweight belt versus Arman Tsarukyan. Let’s break down the ins and outs of this title showdown, shall we?
- What: UFC 311
- When: Saturday, January 18, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Inglewood, California
- Venue: Intuit Dome
- Where to Watch: ESPN 2 (preliminary rounds), Pay Per View (main card)
- Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Makhachev enters UFC 311 with a 26-1-0 lifetime record with The Company. He first secured the Lightweight belt at UFC 280 in October 2022 by getting Charles Oliveira to submit (Arm Triangle).
The 33-year-old Makhachev has since successfully defended his title on three different occasions, including two wins over Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 284 and UFC 294. Most recently, he beat Dustin Poirier with a D’Arce Choke submission at UFC 302 this past June. Also of note: Makhachev has not suffered a loss since…2016.
Tsarukyan, meanwhile, comes to UFC 311 with an overall record of 22-3-0. He earned this title shot with a split decision victory over Charles Oliveiera at UFC 300 last April. The 25-year-old is currently working on a four-match winning streak and has suffered just one loss since July 2019.
UFC 311 Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan Betting Lines
Fighters defending their championship belt tend to get the benefit of the doubt with linemakers. This remains true with the latest online UFC betting odds for UFC 311, as you can see below:
Always remember to double-check these Islam Makhachev bs. Arman Tsarukyan betting lines until you have officially submitted all of your wagers. Our online UFC 311 betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, December 10. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than one month to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell.
Rest assured, Makhachev (-300) vs. Tsarukyan (+250) will undergo a bunch of shifts in the intervening time period. While we do not expect the moneyline outlook to entirely flip, you should definitely brace for shifts getting made to prospective payouts for both fighters.
The Case for Islam Makhachev to Beat Arman Tsarukyan
This is not the first time that Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan has taken place inside the octagon. The duo met at a Fight Night back in April 2019. Makhachev won that matchup by unanimous decision. Though he barely won the striking battle, 14-13, he landed four takedowns to just one from Tsarukyan.
More than five years later, the recipe feels like it has not changed (much) for Makhachev. His takedowns are his greatest weapon. Over time, though, he has improved the striking and kicking elements of his arsenal. He is up to 59 percent striking accuracy. That far exceeds the UFC average, which usually sits between 46 and 48 percent depending on the division.
On top of all that, Makhachev is tougher than ever to hit. Opponents are landing just 39 percent of striking attempts against him—and only 10 percent of their takedowns.
Few fighters in the UFC right now feel as well-rounded. It is a little surprising to see the main event be a 3-to-1 affair. Then again, given how dominant Makhachev looks from all angles these days, we totally get it.
The Case for Arman Tsarukyan to Beat Islam Makhachev
Despite beating a healthy variety of competition over the past couple of years, the top online sportsbooks in the United States are not giving Arman Tsarukyan much of a chance to poach the Lightweight title belt from Islam Makhachev.
To be fair, Makhachev is not the only one of these two who has evened out his functional armorary. Tsarukyan is landing 3.79 strikes per minutes at an above-average clip in addition to his 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Of course, the variety of his victories is more finite. Tsarukyan is more likely to go for the knockout punch than try to catch opponents off guard with his kicks and wrestling maneuvers. But that is also part of his appeal. He knows his strengths and attempts to tailor the tenor of the fight to them.
To be sure, coaxing Makhachev into fighting Tsarukyan’s preferred style will not be easy. It may not even be possible. But Tsarukyan has flashed the potential to win even when he’s not winning the striking battle or landing a ton of them in a vacuum. This bodes well for him in a matchup that both demands he cater to his strengths but be malleable enough to adjust on the fly.
UFC 311 Picks for Makhachev vs Tsarukyan
In the end, this is not a particularly hard call for us.
Tsarukyan has absolutely earned this title fight following his decisive victories over Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush and Joaquim Silva, in particular. But he has not faced the type of aggressive resistance he will get from Makhachev.
Indeed, the closest Tsarukyan came to a similar fight is his December 2022 matchup with Damir Ismagulov. The latter won the striking battle and took Tsarukyan to a decision. And even then, Tsarukyan did not have to worry about getting derailed by a takedown artist. He won that arena 7-0.
Makhachev just does not have enough weaknesses for Tsarukyan to exploit. Failing a surprise one-shot victory, this match seems fated to end in Makhachev’s fourth successful title defense.
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