The UFC 310 fight card features a highly anticipated heavyweight showdown between Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov. Which veteran will secure the victory on Saturday, December 7? That is what we are here to try figuring out.
- What: UFC 310
- When: Saturday, December 7, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Paradise, Las Vegas Valley, Nevada
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura
Gane enters UFC 310 with a 12-2-0 overall record. However, he has not fought in the octagon since September 2023, when he took out Serghei Spivac by KO/TKO. Before that, he fell to Jone Jones at UFC 285 by submission, in what was a fight that cost him the interim heavyweight title.
Volkov arrives at UFC 310 with an overall record of 38-10-10. His last fight came in June 2024, when he defeated Sergei Pavlovich by unanimous decision. The 36-year-old is attempting to once again work his way up the ladder by winning his fifth consecutive fight.
UFC 310 Heavyweight Showdown: Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov Betting Lines
Many expected Gane’s extended absence from the octagon to adversely impact his online UFC 310 betting odds heading into this fight. As you can see below, though, he is currently billed as the favorite:
Please remember, as always, to continue rechecking these UFC 310 betting odds. Our Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, December 3. That still gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into the opening bell.
What’s more, this might be a fight that undergoes some real shifts. As you can see from the table above, many of the top online sportsbooks in the United States have noticeably different UFC 310 betting lines on their docket. Gane is favored at all of them, but the variance in how much must be considered if you have yet to submit your UFC 310 picks.
The Case for Ciryl Gane to Beat Alexander Volkov
Power and precision has defined Gane’s career in the UFC. Once upon a time, he was painted as the future of the UFC heavyweight division. And while his status has changed, as he works his way toward another title shot, the crux of his skill set remains intact.
Gane is landing 60 percent of his significant strike attempts—a mark well above UFC average. Opponents do not have much time to gather themselves off these hits, either. The 34-year-old, who has an 84-inch reach, is averaging 5.5 significant strikes per minute.
This focus on offense seldom comes at the expense of positioning. While Gane tapped out against Jone Jones at UFC 285, he is mostly hard to hit or get down. Opponents are connecting on just 37 percent of their striking attempts against him. The angles he uses to protect himself without slowing down his reaction time or ability to uncork heavy hits himself is by far and away better than anything Volkov has faced over his recent hot streak.
The Case for Alexander Volkov to Beat Ciryl Gane
Although Volkov is not receiving a ton of love at sportsbooks, he is far from incapable of pulling off this upset. Indeed, his opponents over his recent winning streak do not set the world on fire. In fact, it feels like his fight against Gane exists because UFC Commissioner Dana White didn’t want to give him a title shot of a victory over Sergei Pavlovich.
Volkov will have a difficult time combatting Gane’s power and reach. But the Russian does not want for his own rock-solid striking. He is landing 5.13 significant strikes per minute at a 57 percent clip.
Matching Gane’s power may be an unreasonable request. And while Prime Ciryl Gane had the deeper wrestling arsenal, Volkov has earned one submission vicotry over his past four bouts. This is notably an area in which Gane has struggled. Opponents land 50 percent of their takedown attempts against him.
If Volkov can knock Gane off his primary stances, perhaps even getting him down to the mat, it provides a clear roadmap to victory.
UFC 310 Picks for Gane vs Volkov
Picking Ciryl Gane (-340) to beat Alexander Volkov (+280) at UFC 310 is the safe bet.
Yet, we are still not doing it.
Gane’s extended absence from UFC might have us overthinking this matchup. Then again, Volkov is also turning in some of his best performances.
Say what you will about the level of competition faced over the past year or so. Volkov has taken just one of his past four victories to a decision (which was unanimous). You do not have that kind of run by accident.
Improved striking and takedown defense ultimately sell us on the upset. Volkov is evading 73 percent of takedown attempts as well as 55 percent of striking attempts. And if we had to guess, this share is even higher since 2022.
Make no mistake, Gane’s power can turn this into a KO/TKO loss. Also, there is a reason he’s favored at all. But we believe UFC 310 betting lines are underestimating Volkov’s own power, in addition to his bandwidth for winning in a variety of manners. We expect this fight to require a decision. And we also expect it will favor Volkov.
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