Can UFC 310 be the vehicle through which one featherweight fighter gets their name back on the map?
Both Kron Gracie and Bryce Mitchell sure hope so.
The two fighters are scheduled to square off on Saturday, December 7, as part of UFC 310’s overall main card. Both also happen to be working their way out of tough stretches.
- What: UFC 310
- When: Saturday, December 7, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Paradise, Las Vegas Valley, Nevada
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura
Bryce Mitchell enters UFC 310 with an overall record of 16-3-0. His last fight came at UFC 296 against Josh Emmett, which he lost by TKO/KO during Round 1. Before that, though, he was working off a unanimous decision victory over Dan Ige.
Gracie will come to UFC 310 with a lighter resume and choppier returns. His 5-2-0 record will not turn many heads. Nor will the results of his past two matchups. Grace lost by unanimous decision to Charles Jourdain at UFC 288…all the way back in 2021. Prior to that, he fell to Cub Swanson, also by unanimous decision, all the way back in 2019.
UFC 310 Featherweight Showdown: Bryce Mitchell vs Kron Gracie Betting Lines
UFC fans have come to believe The Company is throwing Bryce Mitchell a softball. This sounds absurd on its face. But the latest online UFC 310 betting odds do, in fact, have Mitchell heavily favored to defeat Kron Gracie:
Make sure that you are double-checking these UFC 310 betting odds right up until you submit your wager. Our Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, December 3. That still gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into the opening bell.
Last minute bettors, specifically, will want to track this exact fight. The latter half of UFC main cards are always subject to wild swings in the 11th hour—particularly the day of the fight. While this does not mean all the top online sportsbooks in the United States will dramatically alter their lines, do not be surprised if the value you get now for one of these fighters is substantially lower in just a couple of days.
The Case for Bryce Mitchell to Beat Kron Gracie
Despite sharing similar wrestling strengths to Gracie, the case for Mitchell effectively writes itself. His grappling is on another level. So, too, is his ability to shape the tenor of a fight.
Elite strikers do not deter Mitchell’s attempt to slow down pace and go for takedowns. His accuracy on these, of course, can be erratic. He is landing barely 40 percent of his takedown attempts. But he averages 3.45 takedowns overall per 15 minutes—on top of also averaging 1.6 submissions per 15 minutes.
This approach can be derailed by the right kind of opponent. We saw Josh Emmett deliver a crushing below against Mitchell roughly one year ago. But Kron Gracie is not an established defender in these positions. In his limited UFC action, he has not successfully thwarted a ton of wrestling maneuvers.
Granted, Gracie’s career card doesn’t feature a who’s who of talented wrestlers. That is also part of the problem. He does not have a bunch of experience going up against opponents with stylistic similarities to Mitchell.
The Case for Kron Gracie to Beat Bryce Mitchell
For Gracie to have a reasonable shot at upsetting Mitchell, he will need to win the striking battle.
On the bright side, this is not necessarily a tall order. Mitchell connects on just 2.3 significant strikes per minute. On the other hand, Gracie is not an accomplished striker himself. He lands just 44 percent of his significant strike attempts. The UFC average currently hovers around 47 to 48 percent.
To Gracie’s credit, he is fairly quick for someone who employs a Southpaw stance. The 3.74 significant strikes he lands per minute comfortably outstrip that of Mitchell, who lands just 2.3.
Of course, that low volume is a nod to Mitchell’s grappling priorities. But it opens the door for Gracie to land an effective below if and when Mitchell goes for submissive maneuvers and misses.
UFC 310 Picks for Mitchell vs Gracie
At the end of the day, we find ourselves siding with UFC fans, analysts and betting odds: Bryce Mitchell (-800) is going to beat Kron Gracie (+550) at UFC 310.
To be sure, we recognize the potential for substantial variance. Anytime you put two poor strikers in the octagon, the unexpected can reign supreme. There is a chance that defensive stances take center stage over poorly constructed offensive maneuvers and Gracie wins by a split decision.
And yet, this will require Gracie to display a level of defense he has not previously shown. Sure, we can write off some of the wrestling defense. There is a ton of noise across just a handful of matches. But his striking defense is not write-home-about-it worthy, either.
Opponents are landing an average number of strikes against him per minute, but based on what we saw in his May 2023 loss to Charles Jourdain, that number feels like it lands on the generous end. And yeah, there is a possibility it doesn’t matter. Mitchell is a weird combination of erratic and selective with his striking combos.
Ultimately, this comes down to whose grappling you trust more. And for us, there isn’t a decision in that arena. Mitchell is the easy pick.
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