Missouri Sports Betting Bill Projected to Pass

It looks as if the 2024 Missouri sports betting bill is going to pass.

Nothing will be official for a couple days. The Show-Me State will need a little while to compile all the ballots. (More on this in a second.) However, the early 2024 United States election results suggest that Amendment 2, the bill that would legalize sports betting in Missouri, will earn the popular vote it needs.

According to ballots tallied as of early morning Tuesday, November 6, roughly 52.6 percent of voters have given their stamp of approval to Amendment 2. If this holds, it paves the way for Missouri sports betting to go live.

Of course, we have a bunch of follow-up questions. And the time to tackle them is now.

Why The Missouri Sports Betting Results Are Not Final Yet

Many election results are finalized the same day. This year is no exception. Many online sportsbooks in the United States have already paid out on various races for which they carried odds.

Still, select states and issues take more time to pan out. The Missouri sports betting issue profiles as one of these instances. In this case, because of where The Show-Me State is located, they are uniquely subject to voting mirages. Here is NBC News’ Stephen Pettigrew, Andrew Arenge and John Lapinski explaining what that means:

“Some states—like Florida, Georgia and North Carolina—report their vote quickly, while others typically take longer, upward of a week or two to tabulate most of their ballots. Within many states, the patterns of how votes are reported can make it difficult to tell in the middle of election night who the winner is going to be in the end. For example, vote returns can skew toward one party early in a night because only a certain type of vote is reported first—like when mail ballots are counted before any in-person Election Day votes. These patterns can create what are sometimes referred to as vote mirages.’ A vote mirage is when the current vote count shows a candidate getting a higher percentage of the vote than they will ultimately end up with in the final count. Mirages can be ‘red’ or ‘blue’ depending on which party appears to be benefiting—but ‘appears’ is the really important thing here, because like any other mirage, a vote mirage is fleeting and doesn’t reflect the final reality.’”

As NBC news goes on to, geography has a big impact on vote mirages. States with many rural areas are especially susceptible. This is because rural eras have fewer votes to count and tend to report them sooner.

Does This Make Amendment 2 Less Likely to Pass in Missouri?

Theoretically, yes, vote mirages can adversely impact Amendment 2’s path to legalize. But the operative word is can. When it comes to Missouri sports betting, the early results may actually favor the legalization of Amendment 2.

Vote mirages tend to occur in states with heavy amounts of rural regions. They will turn in their results before more densely populated cities. These regions tend to skew “red” or Republican. That means Missouri could have a larger share of votes from Democrats coming down the pipeline.

And, well, this would be good news for Missouri sports betting.

Historically speaking, Republicans are less likely to support the legalization of sports betting. Mind you, this isn’t always true. But it tends to be the case—especially among states that still have not legalized sports betting.

To that end, if the early Amendment 2 voting results are tilting toward legalization, this means the bill has received majority support from a pool of “red” voters. That is a big deal. The results from more densely populated areas—Kansas City, St. Louis, etc.—can still technically skew the final tally. But voters in these city-hub regions are statistically more likely to favor sports betting.

Ergo, as of now, the legalization of Missouri sports betting feels likely, if not conclusive. In retrospect, this may have even been a foregone conclusion. After all, both gubernatorial candidates from Missouri voiced support for sports betting in the weeks leading up to the election.

What Will Legal Sports Betting in Missouri Look Like?

We have pored over the full details of Amendment 2 in previous pieces. However, here is the cliffnotes summary of what to expect if it passes:

- Both online sports betting in Missouri and retail sports betting in Missouri would become legal.
- Sports betting becomes legal for individuals 21 years or older who are physically located within Missouri’s borders.
- Companies with a Missouri sports betting license must pay a $500,00 application fee as well as five-year renewal fees.

Sportsbooks in Missouri would be taxed at 10 percent on their adjusted gross gaming revenues.

Experts project legal Missouri sports betting could be worth $29 million in yearly revenue to the state.
Shares of this money will be allocated toward Missouri educational institutions and a mandatory Compulsive Gambling Prevention Fund that seeks to address concerns over gambling addiction.

It is not clear when Missouri sports betting would be launched. Many have wondered if it could go live in time for betting on the 2025 Super Bowl. However, it is likely to take longer. The licensing process, in particular, can generally be a while.

If we have to guess, Missouri will seek to launch sports betting prior to the 2025 NFL regular season next September. Make no mistake, it could come sooner. But holding out how for a Super Bowl betting launch in February when Amendment 2 isn’t legalized until November is ambitious. This feels like a 10-month-wait situation.

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