The UFC 310 fight card features a number of interesting bouts. And while folks will invariably gravitate toward the headliner of Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura, the co-headliner of Ian Machado Garry vs.Shavkat Rakhhmonov is generating just as much, if not more, buzz ahead of the opening bell on Saturday, December 7.
- What: UFC 310
- When: Saturday, December 7, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Paradise, Las Vegas Valley, Nevada
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura
Interest in this matchup is of course fueled by the name recognition. Garry and Rakhmonov are both household names among UFC fans. But they are also, many believe, more evenly matched than Pantoja and Asakura.
Garry enters UFC 310 with a perfect 15-0-0 record. He last fought Michael Page at UFC 303 back in January, a matchup he won by unanimous decision.
Rakhmonov brings his own undefeated record of 18-0-0 to UFC 310. He last matched up with Stephen Thompson at UFC 296, where he picked up his sixth-straight early victory, winning by submission (rear naked choke hold) in Round 2.
UFC 310 Co-Main Event: Ian Machado Garry vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Betting Lines
Given that both Garry and Rakhmonov have undefeated records, you might assume that the latest online UFC 310 betting odds are too close to call. Well, they are not. As you can see below, Rakhmonov is entering as the decided favorite:
As always, remember to double-check these Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov betting odds right up until you actually place your wager. Our UFC 310 betting lines are accurate entering Friday, November 29. That gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to continue making adjustments ahead of the opening bell on December 7.
In this case, we do not have to brace for a change in favorite status. Rakhmonov’s edge over Garry is massive—bigger than the advantage Pantoja holds against Asakura in the main event. Still, Garry is undefeated for a reason. At the very least, we could see UFC 310 betting odds shift a little more towards him in the days to come.
The Case for Ian Machado Garry to Beat Shavkat Rakhmonov
Ian Machado Garry (+285) is on the record as saying he will end Shavkat Rakhmonov’s unbeaten streak. And, well, most online sportsbooks in the United States do not seem to agree with him. The odds have moved so far away from Garry likely because of his counterpart’s versatile, near-all-encompassing style.
Still, Garry should not be counted out. He moves exceptionally well and is able to connect on a variety of his kicks. What he lacks in consistency on the wrestling offense, he makes up for with continuously improving striking. Garry is landing 5.5 significant strikes per minute at a 55 percent clip. That is wild when you consider the UFC average for striking efficiency is around 47 percent.
Garry has slo spent significant time polishing his takedown defenses. Opponents are landing just 31 percent of their takedown attempts against him. This progression took one of Rakhmonov’s most valuable clubs out of his bag—thus providing a path to the upset victory for Garry.
The Case for Shavkat Rakhmonov to Beat Ian Machado Garry
The case for Shavkat Rakhmonov (-360) writes itself. Most of the time, he looks absolutely dominant from every angle.
Rakhmonov’s overall defense has come a long way. Opponents still land a slightly above average percentage of attempted strikes (51 percent), but he is nearly impossible to take down. Granted, wrestling isn’t a huge part of what Garry does in the octagon. But with the way Rakhmonov focuses on prevention, it removes any possibility of Garry beating him in that department.
Conversely, while Garry’s takedown defense has improved, it may still be no match for Rakhmonov’s wrestling skills. Five of his past six victories have come by some form of submission. He is not a one-trick fighter, either. He has earned submissions using the Guillotine Choke and Rear Naked Choke. Rakhmonov even picked up a KO victory with his kicking against Carlston Harris.
UFC 310 Picks for Machado Garry vs Rakhmonov
Garry has a better chance of winning in our estimation than the odds suggest. If his footwork is on point, he may reach a level of mobility that leaves Rakhmonov scrambling without wrestling maneuvers on which to lean.
However, avoiding Rakhmonov is easier said than done. He always finds openings that allow him to go for brutal, often match-ending moves. Rakhmonov is averaging 1.8 attempted submissions per 15 minutes—an absolutely absurd number.
Of course, this style can leave the 30-year-old open to absorbing big shots when he misses. The 2.41 significant strikes he withstands per minute are not ideal. But that is where Rakhmonov’s own striking ability comes into play. He is up to 61 percent accuracy on them, and his 77-inch reach gives him a decided advantage as both a striker and kicker.
This is yet another match on the UFC 310 card we could easily see being taken to a decision. Then again, Rakhmonov has never needed a decision to win. All of his victories have come by KO, TKO or, most commonly, submission. Garry’s own undefeated record must be taken seriously. But to be honest, it is hard for us to pick against the resume that Rakhmonov has cobbled together while still in his prime.
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