The loaded card at UFC 309 is officially right around the corner. Stipe Miocic vs. Jon Jones will be the headlining bout, and boy, to say we are excited would be an understatement.
- What: UFC 309 (
- When: Saturday, November 16, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: New York City, New York
- Venue: Madison Square Garden
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Stipe Miocic vs. Jon Jones
Jon Jones enters this showdown with a 27-1-0 record and the UFC heavyweight championship belt. Miocic, meanwhile, brings a 20-4-0 record to the table. However, UFC 309 will represent his first fight since UFC 260‚ all the way back in March 2021, where he lost to Francis Ngannou by KO/TKO.
UFC 309 Main Event: Stipe Miocic vs Jon Jones Betting Lines
Given the extended absence from which Miocic is working, many expected Jones to open as the heavy favorite. And, well, the latest online UFC 309 betting odds confirm this suspicion:
As always, make sure to recheck these UFC 309 betting lines right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 309 betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 5. This gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to adjust the markets ahead of the opening bell.
Rest assured, there will be alterations, too. This fight has been over one year in making. And we have seen a ton of shifts during that time.
Jon Jones initially opened as a -330 favorite and is now at -700. While we don’t expect any changes nearly as seismic, the run-up to these pay-per-view events always features 11th-hour adaptations. And in this case, the amount of time people have waited to see Miocic vs. Jones will absolutely be a factor.
The Case for Jon Jones to Beat Stipe Miocic
If we are being totally honest, Jones (-700) has a case to beat Miocic that writes itself. The 37-year-old has never lost a match outright since joining the UFC. And the no-contest bid versus Daniel Cormier happened all the way back in 2017 at UFC 214.
In the time since, Jones has successfully defended his UFC Heavyweight Championship on five occasions. Though three of those went to a decision, he emerged comfortably victorious every time.
Feast your eyes on the Jones’ past five match opponents and results below:
- Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson (UFC 232): Jones wins in Round 3 by KO/TKO punches
- Jon Jones vs. Anthony Smith (UFC 235): Jones wins by unanimous decision
- Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos (UFC 239): Jones win by split decision
- Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes (UFC 247): Jones wins by unanimous decision
- Jon Jones vs. Cyril Gane (UFC 285): Jones wins by submission (guillotine choke)
This is a ridiculous track record when you consider the level of opponents. Exiting this stretch with a submission victory, TKO/KO and two unanimous decisions is positively mind-melting. Should we actually expect Jones to slow down against someone who has not fought in nearly three years?
The Case for Stipe Miocic to Beat Jon Jones
Folks have not seen Miocic (+500) inside the octagon since March 2021. Understandably, many are questioning whether he still has the chops to hang in this matchup.
At his peak, Miocic is an expert in basically everything. His striking accuracy and defense are notorious, and he has improved his wrestling tactics a great deal over the years.
Though Miocic can pack a ton of power in his combos, his best shot at beating Jones may lie with prolonging the fight. Jones has never necessarily been known for his cardio, and he also isn’t considered the heaviest hitter.
If Miocic can play a cat-and-mouse game through the first few rounds, the fight could hinge on who executes better down the stretch. And while there are no guarantees in that scenario, a longer fight would seem to benefit the 42-year-old, even if he hasn’t fought since 2021.
UFC 309 Picks for Jones vs Miocic
There is a reason all of the top online sportsbooks in the United States have Jon Jones billed as the ultra-heavy favorite against Stipe Miocic. Make no mistake, we have all the respect in the world for Miocic’s body of work. But seeing the way he went down against Ngannou all those years ago is tattooed to memory.
More than that, we cannot get behind predicting an upset following such a long layoff. That is much too extensive of a break.
Perhaps we’d feel differently if Jones was not the opponent. But Miocic is being thrown right back into the fire at UFC 309. And for anyone criticizing Jones’ stamina, those arguments are very much theoretical. Jones has gone through all five rounds in three of the past five fights.
Let’s also not forget what Jones ended up doing to Ciryl Gane at UFC 285. The fight ended barely two minutes into Round 1. Jones is someone clearly still operating closer to the peak of his powers than not. Failing a complete meltdown, we struggle to see any scenario in which Miocic leaves UFC 309 with what, quite frankly, would be an all-time upset.
OSB Prediction: Jon Jones will beat Stipe Miocic at UFC 309 by submission before Round 3.
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