Bo Nickal will take on Paul Craig as part of the UFC 309 main card on Saturday, November 16. Experts have a near-universal pick for the winner. Who is it? And are they the right call? Let’s break it all down.
- What: UFC 309
- When: Saturday, November 16, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: New York City, New York
- Venue: Madison Square Garden
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Stipe Miocic vs. Jon Jones
Bo Nickal enters with a 6-0-0 career record. His most recent fight came at UFC 300 back in April, where he took down Cody Brundage with a rear naked chokehold. Paul Craig comes to UFC 309 with a 17-8-1 overall record. His last fight was at UFC 301 back in May. He wound up suffering a KO/TKO at the hands of Caio Borralho for his second consecutive loss.
UFC 309 Main Card: Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig Betting Lines
That near-consensus pick we were talking about? It is Bo Nickal. And it isn’t even close. Just look at the latest online UFC 309 betting odds for Nickal vs. Craig:
As usual, please remember to double-check these betting lines on UFC 309 right up until you actually place your wager. Our Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 12. That gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to adjust their lines as the markets change leading up to the opening bell.
The Case for Bo Nickal to Beat Paul Craig
Bo Nickal (-1700) is by far the heaviest favorite on the UFC 309 fight card. Linemakers believe that middleweight contender is on the ascent, and clearly, they do not expect him to slow down now.
The feeling is mutual on our end. The 28-year-old Nickal has displayed varying levels of dominance on the back of perhaps the most versatile wrestling package in the division.
Watch Nickal even for a few seconds, and you can tell his background in collegiate wrestling is being put to excellent use. His footwork is flawless even if he is taking defensive stands, and the hand-eye coordination is off the charts.
Entering UFC 309, Nickal is averaging 7.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. What is more, he connects on roughly 50 percent of his takedown attempts. That is well above the UFC average. And it easily outstrips the 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes that Craig averages.
Granted, Nickal does have limitations as a striker. He is landing fewer than two significant strikes per minute. To some extent, though, this is by design, mostly because Nickal excels as a wrestler. And when he does get in work as a striker, what he lacks in speed he makes up for with pinpoint precision.
The Case for Paul Craig to Beat Paul Nickal
Making the case for Paul Craig (+775) is tough to do when so many of the top online sportsbooks in the United States have billed him as a no-chance-in-heck favorite. At the same time, we shouldn’t always let the odds dictate how we feel.
Zoom out, and you remember that Craig has churned out plenty of success in the middleweight division himself. Working off two straight losses is tough, but this is the same Craig who obliterated Andre Muniz just a few fights ago.
On top of that, while Craig cannot compete with Nickal as a wrestler, he does know how to counteract that style. Though his actual takedown defense can be shaky, he has done a better job angling his body and moving his feet to make even attempting takedowns against him that much harder.
To that end, the pathway to victory is clear. If Craig can keep Nickal (and himself) off the floor, it opens the door for him to use his faster combination speed as a striker.
UFC 309 Picks for Nickal vs Craig
Even if you are more optimistic about Craig’s chances of pushing this to a decision, it is awfully tough to pick against Bo Nickal. And in the end, we are not able to do it.
To Craig’s credit, his submission to Brendan Allen last November was the first time he fell to a wrestling move since 2018. As we said, he has the chops to keep Nickal on his feet.
Then again, does he really? Craig is about to turn 37 years old. That makes him roughly a decade older than Nickal. We seriously question whether Craig has the lateral mobility necessary to effectively remain out of Nickal’s wrestling reach.
If Nickal is able to get Craig on the ground or even position himself close enough to grab him, it will be curtains. Craig has not shown nearly enough capability as a head-to-head wrestler for us to believe he’ll be able to escape if this becomes a close-up affair.
The numbers back this up, too. Opponents are connecting on over 60 percent of their takedown attempts on Craig. That is a concern even when matching up with unskilled wrestlers. It is more like a five-alarm fire when your opponent is Nickal, who just may be one of the most adept wrestlers the UFC has seen in quite some time. Especially in the middleweight division. So, we do not just expect Nickal to win. We expect him to win long before the closing bell ever rings.
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