The wait for UFC 309 is almost over. The stockpiled card is coming our way on Saturday, November 16. And while the focus is, of course, on the main event, the co-headliner between Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira looks like a doozy in its own right.
- What: UFC 309
- When: Saturday, November 16, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: New York City, New York
- Venue: Madison Square Garden
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Stipe Miocic vs. Jon Jones
Charles Oliveira enters UFC 309 with an overall record of 34-10-0 and coming off a loss at UFC 300 to Arman Tsarukyan. Michael Chandler is coming in with a 23-8-0 overall record. He also lost his most recent bout, which came at UFC 281 against Dustin Poirier. Both fighters, meanwhile, have dropped two of their past three matchups overall. And in Chandler’s case, he has suffered losses in three of his past four matches.
UFC 309 Co-Main Event: Michael Chandler vs Charles Oliveira Betting Lines
Many presumed Charles Oliveira would open as the favorite against Michael Chandler. They were right. And his UFC 309 odds have held ever since. Here are the latest online UFC 309 betting odds for this fight:
These UFC 309 betting lines have not changed much since their initial release. However, we still recommend you recheck all betting odds on UFC 309 until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 309 betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, November 5. This gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to adjust the markets ahead of the opening bell.
Last-minute shifts, by the way, are the standard for UFC pay-per-view events. Action always increases within two weeks of the main card showdowns. So, not only do we encourage you to stay on top of these lines, but we strongly recommend getting your wagers in as soon as possible.
The Case for Charles Oliveira to Beat Michael Chandler
Believe it or not, many fans still aren’t sure why Charles Oliveira (-240) accepted this fight. He beat Michael Chandler (+205) at UFC 262 back in May 2021. Rematches are standard fare, but Chandler has not fought exceptionally well since. Even if Olivier wins, will this matchup do much for his shot at regaining the UFC Lightweight Championship?
This is a fair discussion to have. But the fight has been set. It’s happening. And frankly, that could be bad news for Chandler. Olivier knocked him out in fewer than 20 seconds in Round 2. Sure, that was more than two years ago. But Chandler has not been at the top of his game ever since.
Indeed, Chandler’s quick-twitch striking may give Oliveira some problems. The latter is more of a power pacer and wrestler than frenetic fighter. But that style is terrifying if you are not able to dictate the pace of play.
Plus, even if you speed up the fight, it will not do anything to slow Oliveira’s power in the early rounds. If you miss on a strike or your footwork is imperfect for even a second, he can take advantage of the opening with devastating blows. And even after his latest rough stretch, Oliveira is still landing 53 percent of his strike attempts.
The Case for Michael Chandler to Beat Charles Oliveira
The case for Chandler to beat Oliveira at UFC 309 may have more to do with Oliveira than Chandler himself.
Despite still packing plenty of power, Oliveira has not fought as well, aggressively or physically in matchups with Tsarukyan (UFC 300) and Islam Makhachev (UFC 280). He was able to land a one-shot KO/TKO at UFC 2989 v. Beneil Dariush, but Chandler’s speed and stamina generally won’t allow for those early-round opportunities.
If Oliveira has truly lost a step, it opens up the door for Chandler to wear him down, if not secure a submission or KO himself. Chandler showed that he still has the ability to end matches early with a Round 2 knockout of Tony Ferugson at UFC 274.
In particular, Chandler may be able to use his kicking to break through Oliveira’s early-round defense. And if he lands one or two of those maneuvers, he will be looking at a potential upset.
UFC 309 Picks for Oliveira vs Chandler
In the end, we are more tempted to roll with Chandler than we initially thought. The versatility in his offensive fighting style is definitely capable of taking down the past few versions of Oliveira that we’ve seen. On top of that, many believe that UFC’s Dana White has promised a lightweight title shot to the winner. That adds to the stakes and motivation for Chandler, who technically shouldn’t be so close to a title shot given his run of recent losses.
Nevertheless, we can’t bring ourselves to bet against the power of Oliviera. Even when he is not at his best or at his quickest, he is extremely deliberate with his go-for-it opportunities. He will wait out Chandler’s aggression for an opening, perhaps even winning by another knockout.
Feel free to predict an upset, because we believe it is possible. The lines at many top online sportsbooks in the United States have started moving closer to his favor.
Ultimately, though, you must believe that Chandler will deliver more consistent striking accuracy and defense. We can’t get there. Opponents are connecting on 54 percent of their strike attempts against Chandler. We believe Oliveira is primed to capitalize on that early and often.
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