Yan Xiaonan will take on Tabatha Ricci in the co-main event at UFC Macau. The betting lines have pegged a clear favorite. But could there be an upset in store?
- What: UFC Macau
- When: Saturday, November 23, 2024
- Start Time: 12 a.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 3 a.m.. EST (main card)
- Where: Cotai, Macau
- Venue: Galaxy Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (subscription required)
- Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Petr Yan
Xiaonan enters UFC Macau with an overall record of 17-4-0. Her last fight came at UFC 300 against Zhang Weili. She ended up losing by unanimous decision. Before that, though, she picked up victories against Jessic Andrade at UFC 288 (KO/TKO) and versus Mackenzie Dern (majority decision) at a UFC Fight Night in October 2022.
Tabatha Ricci will bring an 11-2-0 overall record to UFC Macau and is currently working on a two-match winning streak. Her last bout came against Angela Hill at a UFC Fight Night back in May, and it was by a split decision. Of note: Ricci has lost just twice since June 2021. Her most recent loss came by a split decision against Loopy Godinez at UFC 295 in November 2023.
UFC Macau Co-Main Event: Yan Xiaonan vs Tabatha Ricci Betting Lines
Truthfully, given the number of victories Ricci has racked up in the past couple of years, we expected her to enter UFC Macau as the favorite over Xiaonan. But that is not the case. Here’s a look at the latest online UFC Macau betting odds:
As usual, please remember to double-check these UFC Macau betting lines until you actually place your wager. Our UFC Macau betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 19. That gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to adjust their lines ahead of the opening bell.
For what it’s worth, we do not expect much movement. There has been some extra action on Xiaonan following UFC 309. But interest in the next UFC event always peaks following a pay-per-view headliner. And because this is the co-main event, rather than the primary main event, the lines should hold fairly steady. Still, we strongly encourage you to refresh them.
The Case for Yan Xiaonan to Beat Tabatha Ricci
Many have pointed to Yan Xiaonan’s failed Strawweight at UFC 300 against Zhang Weili as proof she might be overhyped. We cannot get there.
Yes, she could stand to be more judicious with how she delivers her striking combinations. Entering UFC Macau, she is landing just 44 percent of her significant strike attempts. That is below the UFC average, which sits somewhere between 46 and 49 percent.
At the same time, the chaoticness with which Xiaonan goes after opponents is part of her appeal. She may not always make connections. And she is most likely not knocking out Ricci. But she is landing nearly five significant strikes per minute for her career. That is a monster number, and it can grate on opponents—not just their strength, but their technique.
The Case for Tabatha Ricci to Beat Yan Xiaonan
Analysts across the internet and television have spotlighted Tabatha Ricci’s mat game as her most probable path to victory. This consensus might be why the top online sportsbooks in the United States have ever so slightly shifted her odds to win over the past few days.
Granted, she is not the most efficient wrestler. She will enter UFC Macau converting just 39 percent of her takedown attempts. However, the sheer persistence with which she tries bringing opponents to the ground can be overwhelming. Ricci is averaging 2.99 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. That is nearly triple the amount of Xiaonan.
What’s more, Xiaonan has looked a touch slower at the age of 35. In particular, she no longer seems like she is able to get up as quickly or seamlessly once hitting the floor. If Ricci can get her on the ground for more than a beat, it will open the door for her to win by submission with an arm bar or another move.
UFC Macau Picks for Xiaonan vs Ricci
To be completely transparent, we have a stronger pull toward Tabatha Ricci than we expected. Her wrestling figures to be a huge difference-maker. She is not only more aggressive as a takedown artist, but she is evading 80-plus percent of opponent takedown attempts.
Invariably, though, we cannot quite bring ourselves to pick her over Xiaonan. Perhaps we would feel differently if Xiaonan’s style was reliant upon effective wrestling. It is not. She is going to inundate opponents with striking combinations and create scores of real-time problems by forcing them to make split-second decisions about their stances and arm positioning.
On top of that, we have come to believe people are overplaying the “step slower” angle. Sure, Weili took her down by unanimous decision at UFC 300. But Xiaonan still took the match to a decision. More importantly, she made adjustments as the rounds went on. By the end of the match, she was much quicker getting to her feet after hitting the mat. And given the scouting report on Ricci’s recent victories, this is bound to be a focus for Xianonan in Macau.
Basically, it feels like Xianonan has the ability to withstand or undermine Ricci’s strengths more than the other way around. And in a showdown between two fighters who do not regular generate submissions or knockouts, this stands to make a world of difference.
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