Can Penn State shock Ohio State in Big Ten Showdown?

What: NCAA Football Regular Season Game
When: November 2, 2024
Who: Ohio State vs. Penn State
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Where: Beaver Stadium (Happy Valley, PA)

No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 4 Ohio State in the fourth top-five matchup in the college football regular season. Ohio State has dominated Penn State in their recent meetings. Ohio State has won nine of the last 10 games against Penn State.

The Buckeyes (6-1) aim to prevent a second conference loss, while the Nittany Lions (7-0) are hoping to have quarterback Drew Allar return for this Big Noon Kickoff matchup.

There will be no shortage of Online college football betting as the college football season continues, and every game becomes a high-stakes chess match.

This is the most significant game of the season for the Nittany Lions. A victory would elevate them to the top contender status in the Big Ten, right behind Oregon.

Ohio State faced a tough challenge last week against Nebraska, and Penn State struggled a bit against Wisconsin. Nonetheless, both teams came away with wins, paving the way for a huge matchup in Happy Valley.

Game Preview

Let's break down this matchup.

Spread
Ohio State -3.5	-112	-110	-110
Penn State +3.5	-108	-110	-110

Both teams are dealing with injury concerns, Ohio State left tackle Zen Michalski left the game against Nebraska while Penn State is uncertain if starting QB Drew Allar will be available.

Ohio State -3.5 Points Ohio State vs. Penn State

-112

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Ohio State may have two of the top running backs in the nation, but they’re about to face the toughest rush defense of the season.

Penn State features one of the premier defensive lines in the country, consistently shutting down opposing teams' ground attacks.

The Nittany Lions are allowing only 3.2 yards per carry and rank second nationally in both Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards.

Last weekend, Buckeye running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson struggled against Nebraska. They only managed a mere 54 yards on 20 carries combined.

If the Buckeyes can't get the running game going they'll need to find success against the Nittany Lion defense through the air. The pressure will be on quarterback Will Howard to move the ball through the air.

He has accumulated 1,795 passing yards, thrown for 17 touchdowns, and recorded four interceptions, all while maintaining a completion percentage of 74%.

Jeremiah Smith continues his streak of rec TDs 💪 pic.twitter.com/YcCr6gTmfJ

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 26, 2024

Given that Penn State ranks among the top 30 nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed, I believe Ohio State may struggle to move the ball effectively. The Nittany Lions will focus on neutralizing freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Oddsmakers are making a mistake giving Penn State bettors the extra half-point here.

I'd take the 3.5 points and back the Nittany Lions at home as the pick in this one.

Penn State +3.5 Points Ohio State vs. Penn State

-110

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Total Points (Buckeyes vs. Nittany Lions)

Let's examine the total points prop in this game.

Total Points
Over 46.5	-115	-110	-110
Under 46.5	-105	-110	-110

While Penn State's offense might not be high-scoring, it is highly efficient. The Nittany Lions are currently third in the nation in Success Rate, largely due to Drew Allar's impressive performance at quarterback.

Penn State has a key advantage in the trenches, ranking in the top 30 for both Offensive Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards, while Ohio State ranks lower at 56th and 53rd, respectively.

The Nittany Lions are averaging 33.3 points and 463.7 yards per game. However, Allar suffered an injury last week and may miss the upcoming game.

See you soon 😎 @CollegeGameDay https://t.co/VvehkQ123n

— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) October 27, 2024

If Penn State can establish a strong running game and create favorable passing situations for Allar, they have a good chance of winning.

In contrast, Ohio State’s defense, the top-ranked in the Big Ten, excels with a remarkable average of just 254.4 yards and 11.9 points allowed per game.

They rank third in pass defense, giving up only 163.1 yards through the air. The Buckeyes are second in rushing defense, allowing 91.3 yards per game, showcasing their formidable talent across both front seven and secondary.

Ohio State's offense has had an impressive season, averaging 471.9 total yards and 40.3 points per game. The team is filled with talent, and Will Howard stands out as the crucial playmaker at quarterback.

However, the total of 46.5 points feels a tad too high, I believe in the Penn State defense. I think they hold Ohio State to under 25 points.

The under is the best bet in this one, and this feels like a 24-21 type of game.

Under 46.5 Points Ohio State vs. Penn State

-110

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