Montana Sports Betting Revenue May Be Declining

The Montana sports betting market is getting ready to wrap up its fourth full year of operations. And for the first time, there is a real chance its revenue stream may decline over a 12-month period.

Legal sports betting in Montana first launched in 2019. However, it did not go live until April. That makes 2024 the fourth full calendar year in which it’s live.

During this time, Montana sports betting has enjoyed annual growth, essentially year-over-year. As we close out 2024, though, Big Sky Country may be tracking toward its first decline.

What are the potential root causes? And does it matter? Is there even a chance that the current projections wind up being inaccurate? Let’s break it all down.

Here’s How Much Revenue Montana Sports Betting is on Pace to Generate This Year

Through September 2024, which is the most recent month that data is available, Montana sports betting has churned out just under $5.5 million in gross gaming revenue. (Gross gaming revenue is the total profit from sportsbooks.) Slightly under $600,000 of that goes to the state as part of their tax.

With three quarters of the year in the book, Montana sports betting is generating roughly $611,000 in gross gaming revenue per month. In taxes that go to the state, this amounts to a hair below $67,000 per month.

Extrapolate these figures to include the full 12-month period, and Montana sports betting is on track to earn the following:

Total Montana Gross Gaming Revenue Projection for 2024: $7.33 million
Total Montana Sports Betting Tax Revenue Projection for 2024: $804,000

These numbers pale in comparison to how Montana fared in 2023. See for yourself below:

Total Montana Gross Gaming Revenue Projection for 2023: $8.45 million
Total Montana Sports Betting Tax Revenue Projection for 2024: $1.09 million

Digging into the percentages paints an even clear picture. If the current projections hold, Montana’s gross gaming revenue will decline by more than 13 percent in 2024. Their total tax revenue is on course to drop by over 26 percent.

Does Montana Still Have Time to Make Up the Difference?

This question is difficult to answer. On the one hand, bridging such sizable gaps over the final couple of months feels implausible. On the other hand, we must consider the sports calendar.

Specifically, we must consider betting on NFL football. People drop vast amounts of money betting on football from September through February. Montana sports bettors are no different. Revenue in October, November and December to close the year should measurably exceed those from other months.

This is especially true when evaluated against the summer. The sports betting calendar is rather thin for most of June and then all of July and August. Both the NBA and NHL wrap up their seasons by early June. Football has been done for a while at that time, and training camps don’t open until August is already underway.

Through this stretch, betting on tennis—specifically betting on the U.S. open—as well as betting on the WNBA and betting on MLB must carry the bottom line. That is a tall order in every market. But is a particularly gargantuan task in the Montana sports betting market and others like it.

See, while there is plenty of sports betting interest throughout Big Sky Country, the state is not home to any of its own pro sports teams. That leaves them more susceptible to lulls in the calendar than most. Along with a higher share of winning wagers Montana sportsbooks must pay out, this could be the driving force behind a slipping revenue stream.

Should Montana Consider Online Sports Betting Expansion?

There is still a chance Montana sport betting gets a substantial end of year bump and enjoys more annual growth. Regardless, this discussion matters. And it dovetails nicely with another issue: Should Montana consider expanding their sports betting options?

Indeed, the state touts hundreds of locations at which you can place wagers. But these “locations” are mostly kiosks scattered throughout the region. Montana is not teeming with audience-drawing retail sportsbooks.

What’s more, Big Sky Country does not reap the full benefits of online sports betting in the United States. Their current gaming laws do not allow for a wide breadth of online sports betting apps. To the contrary, Sports Bet Montana is the only sports betting site licensed to operate in the region. The app is currently run by the state lottery, which oversees Montana sports betting and is, as such, the only permitted entity that can accept online wagers.

While this app is accessible to everyone in the region, others may prefer more well-known online sportsbook brands (FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings). Others will invariably prefer the convenience of offshore betting sites as well. Both sets of alternatives can be more easily accessed throughout the rest of the country.

So if Montana sports betting revenue does fall, as it’s currently on pace to do, policymakers might want to look inward. Is this a one-year blip? Or is it part of what could become a larger trend? Is it actually nothing at all? Whatever the answer, we will have a better idea in just a couple months time.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: