With the 2024 US Presidential Election getting closer the political landscape is changing on an almost daily basis. One person that seems to be bucking the overall trend is JD Vance. Trumpâs Vice-President pick seems to be stumbling from one calamity to another, leading to speculation and political futures betting markets that the Ohio State senator is set to be dumped.
- JD Vance has endured a torrid time in recent weeks
- The VP pick has seen his favorability rating plummet
- Speculation is rife that Trump is considering replacing the hapless Senator
When the bookies create a betting market, itâs because there is interest. And in the case of cat-lady-hating JD Vance, the betting market in question isnât one he would approve of.
Yes, there is now a market taking wagers on whether or not JD Vance will remain on the GOP White House ticket. JD Vance is +700 to be replaced as Republican VP nominee, and +2000 to remain.
Okay, the odds are firmly in favor of Vance surviving. But let's get real.
The fact that the market exists at all is bad news for Vance, and also only serves to add fuel to the flames that his hapless campaign could yet be given the boot.
The odds are saying that Vance is safe for now. But there is plenty that could change between now and the US Presidential Election on November 5th.
| JD Vance VP Pick Betting |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| No - Vance to remain as VP Pick | -2000 | -2000 | -2000 |
| Yes - Vance to be replaced | +700 | +700 | +700 |
The bigger picture
To better understand the market and if this is a real possibility itâs worth taking a look at the bigger picture.
Kamala Harris has been riding a wave of positive vibes since she took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden.
Harris has closed the gap in the opinion polls, and this has resulted in the betting going back to being a 50/50 call.
When Biden was running for the White House, Donald Trump was an overwhelming odds-on favorite.
Anything Biden was doing was being scrutinized. He couldnât even walk up a step without someone giving an opinion on how he performed. That narrative has now changed, and the questions about age and fitness are heading in Trumpâs direction instead.
The American public wants to know there is a competent Vice President waiting to take over in the event of the President being incapacitated.
Is JD Vance currently persuading floating voters that he is that person?
What could force Trump to give JD Vance the boot?
In the latest 2024 US Election betting odds, things are still very close.
To win the US Presidential Election, Kamala Harris is -120, and Donald Trump is -110.
When Joe Biden was still running for the Democrats, Trump was quoted at odds of -350 to win the election.
The view that Trump was coasting to the White House when Biden was the only other alternative forced the Democrats to act.
At odds of -110 on a Trump win, things arenât that bad. But if Trump starts to lose ground, he may decide - like the Democrats did - that drastic action is required.
The first person in the firing line in such an event would have to be JD Vance. Unless, that is, something changes.
Giving JD Vance the boot wouldnât be a great look. But if it gets to the stage where Trump is getting desperate, donât rule out such a move.
The best politics betting online sites are suggesting Vance is safe for now. But we certainly wouldnât be betting on him remaining the VP pick at -2000.
American politics is too volatile. And the sensible bet would have to be to have a small wager on him being replaced.
Who could replace JD Vance?
Names in the mix to potentially replace JD Vance are Doug Burgum (+325), Ben Carson (+400), and Nikki Hayley (+550). Even Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+1400) is getting a mention since he decided to endorse Trump.
Doug Burgum was one of the names in the mix to be Trumpâs original pick. The North Dakota Governor is a successful businessman. His success in business shows he is competent. Going against him is at 68 he is just another middle/old-aged white bloke.
And speaking of older white blokes, what about the chances of Trump deciding to ask RFK Jr. to be his running mate?
Before you laugh, look at this from another perspective.
Whatever your view on politics, one thing that surely every man, woman, dog, cat, and even alien can agree on is that Trump has an ego.
There have been previous reports that the GOP nomination liked the sound of a Trump-Kennedy ticket.
The Kennedy name is well known all around the world. And Trump having a Kennedy as his VP pick would appeal to him in many ways.
In an ever-changing world of politics where it seems that almost anything can happen, can you imagine the attention that a Trump-Kennedy ticket would garner?
Having two volatile characters on the ticket may be too much for some. And it is a long shot. But ask yourself this - would you back against it happening in the current climate when anything seems possible?
Exactly.
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