How Has Vermont Sports Betting Fared In Its First Year?

The first year of Vermont sports betting is just about in the books. How has it gone in The Green Mountain State so far? Let’s find out.

Not all of the data for sports betting in Vermont is up for consideration. They launched their gambling services in January 2024. A full 12 months will not have passed for roughly one more month.

Even then, we will need to wait a few more weeks before having the exact one-year results. Vermont sports betting revenue reports typically run a month or two behind. For reference, as of December 4, we are still waiting on the October revenue.

There is nevertheless enough information for us to start projecting forward. Just two months of revenue remains, which gives us 10 months of Vermont sports betting data over which to pore.

How much money has been spent betting on sports in Vermont? How much tax revenue does The Green Mountain State stand to make by year’s end? And how does the Vermont sports betting launch compare to similar markets?

These are all questions to which we can officially provide answers.

Vermont Sports Betting Handle Has Already Eclipsed $150 Million

Through the first 10 months of operations, the Vermont sports betting handle sits a little over $151 million. February 2024 is so far their most lucrative month. The handle topped $21.2 million. And that makes sense, since February is when betting on the NFL Super Bowl generates a ton of interest.

Overall, if the current pace holds, the 2024 Vermont sports betting handle will hit $181.4 million. That is a pretty good chunk of action when you consider Vermont ranks second to last in total population.

Thus far, of all the money taken in, just over $10 million goes into the state’s pockets as tax revenue. To be sure, this is the amount of money online sportsbooks in Vermont must pony up after paying out all the winning wagers to their customers.

At the current pace, Vermont sports betting revenue in 2024 will top $12 million for the year. That is an average of roughly $1 million per month.

Policymakers have to be satisfied if this number holds. Heck, it can miss and they have cause to be pleased. Initial projects though the Vermont sports betting market would top out around $6 million to $7 million in revenue during Year 1. As it stands, the state is on pace to double those projections.

How Does Vermont Hold Up Against Similar States with Legal Sports Wagering?

While exceeding the projected revenue in Year 1 is a bright spot, it also speaks to how difficult estimates are in the Vermont sports betting market. Specifically speaking, finding adequate comparisons can be tough. Useful analogs must check a couple of boxes. Mainly, they need to be a lower-populated state without a bunch of flagship sports teams in-market.

Relative to this criteria, sports betting in Wyoming looms as the best parallel. They have the lowest populated state in the United States and are not home to any major sports teams. The Cowboy State launched sports in the fall of 2021, so they are ahead of the game. But like Wyoming, they have leaned into the rise of online sports betting in the United States. Both retail and online mobile betting sites have licenses to operate in the market.

Rather than use the Wyoming sports betting handle in 2024 as our baseline, we will be using their Year 1 returns and then accounting for inflation. During the first year of operations, Wyoming sports betting took in $144.5 million in total bets. That is the equivalent of $153.9 million today.

This checks in significantly lower than the $181.4 million handle that Vermont sports betting is projected to hit. Of course, we need to account for population differences. Vermont counts around 648,000 residents while Wyoming has about 585,000. 

It turns out this context does little to slow The Green Mountain State’s momentum. On a per capita basis, the Vermont sports betting market has taken in more money than its best comparison.

The Vermont Gambling Market May Be Even Larger Than Expected

Given everything we just discussed, the logical conclusion appears to be that the Vermont sports gambling market is even bigger than anticipated. Granted, we still need to see the final two months of data. And after that, we will want to monitor how they fare in Year 2.

At the same time, this is not a premature revelation. Stakeholders in the industry are already thinking in the same terms. Wendy Knight, the Commissioner of the Liquor and Lottery Department, which oversees Vermont sports betting, told VTDigger.org earlier this year that officials have “determined the market’s potential is larger” than expected. She also noted at the time that the state adjusted forecasts to account for $7 million in sports betting revenue. Vermont has already blown past that benchmark.

What’s more, the market has yielded these returns despite sportsbooks in Vermont paying out money on 90 percent of their wagers between January and June. That is an absurdly high rate. It is also typical in a new market. The first six months to a year is when online sportsbooks in the United States run their most aggressive promotions.

To that end, if Vermont is already obliterating projections while baking in extra bonuses from sportsbooks, it stands to reason they’ll make even more money in Year 2.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: