Two bordering nations meet in the Round of 16 as Switzerland draws Italy in the 2024 edition of the Euros. Nearly topping their section before a late equalizer from Niclas Fullkrug drew the Germans level, the Swiss will now take on 3rd-place qualifier Italy. A tough draw against Spain and Croatia in the so-called “Group of Death” wasn’t enough to eliminate the defending champions. Continue reading for an expert Switzerland vs Italy prediction and explore stats and a breakdown for Euro betting in 2024.
- UEFA European Football Championship, Group Stage (Match 1 of 3)
- June 29, 2024 (Saturday)
- 12 PM EST
- The Olympiastadion, Berlin, Germany
- Switzerland vs Italy
- FOX
Switzerland vs Italy Prediction: Who do Bettors Favor?
Despite being the higher seed, it is the Italians who have garnered the most respect from sportsbooks and bettors. Indeed, Italy is favored to win in 90 minutes but not by much. A line of (+153) follows their name, while the Swiss are (+233). A draw pays out at (+205).
Want to better understand the 1X2 moneyline market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about UEFA Euro Cup betting.
Switzerland Dark Horse in Euro 2024?
Entering the tourney at 85:1 to win it all, Switzerland’s odds have dropped dramatically as they comfortably advanced out of the group stage. Now down to just 35:1, the Swiss have a shorter hill to climb, albeit still steep. The winner of this tie will likely face Euro 2024 favorites England, unless Slovakia pulls off an upset for the ages. But after that, their worst possible pairing would be the Netherlands.
Switzerland’s ability to not only control the pitch but also launch deadly counter-attacks from their half was best displayed in their opening match against Turkiye. A dominant first half gave them a 2-0 lead, which they held onto after a transition goal from Shaqiri secured the 3-1 victory and his brace. Fast-forward to the knockout stages and Switzerland is one of the eight teams that remain unbeaten amongst the 16 left.
While they certainly do not carry the history or big-name value of their other European rivals, Switzerland is no team to take lightly. They have arguably looked better than Italy, England, Belgium, Portugal, France and the Netherlands through the first 3 matches. Realistically, only Spain and Germany have lived up to their lofty price tags so far in this tournament. If there is any team that can pull off a 2000s Greece-like Cinderella story, it’s the Red Crosses.
Is Italy Bad, or are Spain and Croatia Good?
Italy managed to advance out of the difficult Group B thanks to an incredible 98th minute equalizer against Croatia in the final match. Their Mediterranean rivals were left stunned as Mattia Zaccagni scored a beautiful right-footed strike in transition across the face of the net. Veteran Luka Modric was distraught on the bench, begrudgingly accepting his Player of the Match award later that night with pain in his eyes. The Italians advanced as the runners-up while Croatia were left with just 2 points, knowing it would very likely not be enough to earn them a 3rd-place qualification.
Italy’s biggest issue is their lack of a striker. With no talent at the top, the Blues have resorted to forcing optimistic crosses into the box, usually leading to nothing. The result will likely not change against Switzerland, who have big bodies in their rearguard and a capable keeper who, in tandem, have allowed no more than 1 goal in any Euro game so far.
Scotland’s lone goal came as a result of an unfortunate deflection from a Swiss defender, sending the leaping goalkeeper in the wrong direction. That 1-1 draw was somewhat unfortunate for the Swiss, who felt like the better side all game. Now against an Italy team that has struggled to score, this matchup sets up very well for them to at least keep it even until the final whistle.
Switzerland vs Italy Prediction and Free Euro Betting Pick
Draws in senior men’s international tournaments have been insanely profitable in the knockout stages for over two decades now. Whether this is due to tired legs on the pitch after many games in quick succession, or strategy late in matches in hopes of securing an advancement via penalty kicks, it is hard to tell. But the numbers are clear; blindly bet draws, and you are raking in a lot of money.
While my breakdown is not quite as simple, it may look that way on Saturday. Italy can’t score and Switzerland can threaten even without the ball. I rarely see value betting on a draw, and typically I would take Switzerland on the double chance line in this spot. But given the overwhelming evidence of the historical profitability in taking the draw, I will recommend going in that direction instead.
This game likely ends 0-0 or 1-1, in which case it is possible the Swiss take it in extras or penalties. By betting the draw, we just need it to be level after 90 minutes, which will feel surprisingly short if the game is as sluggish as it looks to be on paper. Throw a full unit on the draw in this tie. And get familiar with doing so in this Euro 2024, as I will recommend doing so on many more games to come.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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