The Euro 2024 begins this weekend and one of the first games to kick off in Germany will include Spain and Croatia. Spain has had some poor luck in penalty shootouts lending to numerous unfortunate exits in international tournaments recently. Croatia, meanwhile, has overperformed its miniature population with a 2018 World Cup final appearance. Read on for an expert Spain vs Croatia prediction and explore stats and a breakdown for Euro betting in 2024.
- UEFA European Football Championship, Group Stage (Match 1 of 3)
- June 15, 2024 (Saturday)
- 12 PM EST
- The Olympiastadion, Berlin, Germany
- Spain vs Croatia
- FOX
Spain vs Croatia Prediction: Who do Bettors Favor?
Spain are odds-on favorites to get a crucial three points in the first leg of the group stages, with most books offering around (-110) odds to win. A draw is somewhat more likely than usual, with (+245) odds indicating an implied probability of 29%. However, Croatia backers can get a price of (+342) if they believe they can get the better of Spain to begin their Euro proceedings.
Want to better understand the 1X2 moneyline market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about UEFA Euro Cup betting.
Youthful Boost to 2024 Spain National Team
Spain will open their Euro 2024 campaign in a group with Italy, Croatia, and Albania. While on the surface this may seem dangerous, Albania is a big favorite to score the fewest goals in the entire tournament, with a line set at 1.5. Italy may also struggle to defend their Euro 2020 title. Indeed, they failed to qualify for the World Cup on back-to-back occasions and are lacking any notable offensive players. An aging Croatia may provide little resistance as well given their aging core, as I will expand upon later.
Spain represents one of the “Big Five” countries considered the favorites to win it all this year, along with England, France, Germany, and Portugal. They have won the European Championship three times in their history, including back-to-back wins in 2008 and 2012, sandwiching their World Cup victory. Their international success dovetailed after that golden generation, but Spain seems to be on an upward trajectory with a 3rd-place finish in the last edition of the Euros.
Only Jesus Navas remains from that generation, and even is coming off a two-year absence from international competition. Newcomers include Nico Williams and the prodigious Lamine Yamal, a budding star who will break the record for the youngest player to ever appear at the Euros (aged 16) if he steps foot on grass in Germany this summer.
Spain fans will remember their most recent “Group of Death” placement, drawing Germany, Japan and Costa Rica in the 2022 World Cup. Taking one look at this Euro group will probably give many of them flashbacks. Conversely, replacing one Luis (Enrique) with a new one (de la Fuente), provides some optimism in the Spanish camp after winning 7 of their 8 group games.
Croatia’s Best Days in the Past?
Overall, these two teams have met 6 times competitively, with their first ever non-friendly appearance occurring in 2012. The young nation has bested their European rivals twice, including a Euro 2016 in the final matchday of the group stages. The victory placed them above Spain to win the group, dooming the Spaniards to ultimately lose in the quarterfinals after drawing Italy in that matchup.
Now 8 years removed from that match, Croats believe their side can repeat that performance, although their squad has gotten much older. The scorer of the game-winner against Spain in 2016 was Ivan Perisic, who has now reached the wrong side of 35 and has looked like a shadow of his former self. Star player and key figure in Croatia’s run to the 2018 World Cup Final Luka Modric has also aged rapidly, limited to a very small playing role for Champions League winners Real Madrid this season.
Spain vs Croatia Prediction and Free Euro Betting Pick
Spain’s possession-dominant style does not bode well for this Croatian side. Croatia likes to build up through their midfield and generate chances through a lot of orchestrated attacks. Consequently, Luis de la Fuente will look to employ Spain’s trademark Tiki-Taka tactics and drown Croatia’s low block with short pass after short pass, limiting their build-up potential.
So, what is the difference between this Spanish collective and others in years past? The inclusion of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, pacey and incredibly talented wingers who are comfortable on the ball, whipping crosses into the box or navigating their way to shooting space on their own. I think Spain will dominate the eye test of this game, but both teams may be nervous at first.
Opening matches tend to be lower-scoring, and I would like to avoid backing Spain just to agonizingly watch them waste chance after chance with poor finishing. Besides, there is not much trustworthy goal production outside of Morata on this team. Therefore, I will look to back what I believe will be a one-sided, low-scoring game by targeting the team total market.
I would give Croatia’s odds of scoring at around 50/50, yet we can get a line of (+150) on BetOnline. That indicates a probability of 40%, a good 10% lower than what I have. So trust in Spain to keep their books clean through the opening match. Lay a full unit on the clean sheet.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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