Leinster favorite to make third successive Champions Cup Final when they face Northampton in Dublin

Leinster and Northampton meet in the first semi-final of the European Champions Cup on Saturday evening in Dublin. The Irish province is the favorite to win the match and the favorite to win the competition outright. Leinster has been in the previous two finals, and in our latest rugby betting picks, we tell you if they will do it for a third straight season.

What: 2023/24 European Rugby Champions Cup
Who: Leinster vs. Northampton Saints
Where: Croke Park, Dublin, Ireland
When: Saturday, May 4th
Time: 11.30 a.m ET

Leinster has been the standout team in European rugby for the past three seasons. But, despite their strengths and undoubted talent, they have come up short in the last two Champions Cup Finals.

Adding further insult to injury, Leinster has also crashed out at the semi-final stage of the playoffs in the United Rugby Championship in both 2022 and 2023. These two defeats came after Leinster dominated the regular seasons, finishing well clear at the top of the table in both campaigns.

In short, Leo Cullen’s team has fallen short at the final stages too often lately. For a team as good as they are, Leinster have seriously underachieved.

When they take on the Northampton Saints on Saturday, they have an opportunity to make it to a third successive final. A win over the English Premiership team will give the Irish champions a chance to right the wrongs of the past two seasons.

Betting to win the 2024 European Champions Cup

The bookmakers see the betting to win the 2024 European Champions Cup as a two-horse race.

Leinster is the betting favorite at +100 with BetOnline. But they have real competition as they bid to win a record-equalling fifth title.

Toulouse is the second favorite at +110 to win the competition. The French giants are already the most successful team in the history of the Champions Cup, with five wins. They face Harlequins in the second semi-final on Sunday as they bid to win the title for a record sixth time.

Making up the rest of the betting is Northampton at +1200 and Harlequins at +3300.

Leinster vs. Northampton Match Betting

In the betting to win the match, the latest rugby betting odds favor the hosts. On the money line, Leinster is -800. While to pull off a shock win in Ireland, Northampton is +500.

Onto the handicap spread, and the Saints are receiving a 13.5-point start. To win with the spread, Northampton is -110. To win and cover the 13.5-point spread, Leinster are -110 with Bovada.

More Leinster vs. Northampton betting options are on our odds table. We have gathered our odds from the best rugby betting online sites for the Champions Cup.

Leinster vs. Northampton
Leinster	-800	-800	-800
Northampton	+500	+500	+500

Leinster (-13.5)	-110	-110	-110
Northampton (+13.5)	-110	-110	-110

Leinster vs. Northampton: Recent form

In the 2022 final, Leinster lost 24-21 to La Rochelle. Then in the 2023 final, they lost 27-26 to Ronan O’Gara’s French outfit for a second season in succession.

In the quarter-final of this year's competition, Leo Cullen’s team finally gained revenge, thrashing the defending champions by 40 points to 13 at the Aviva Stadium in mid-April.

FT: Leinster 40-13 La Rochelle

The holders are out as Leinster hammer La Rochelle to set up a Champions Cup semi-final at Croke Park.https://t.co/KPw2CIURRT

— RTÉ Sport (@RTEsport) April 13, 2024

Their form since the win over La Rochelle is slightly concerning. In two URC trips to South Africa, the Irish team has lost 44-12 to the Lions at Ellis Park, and they followed that up with a 42-12 defeat away to the Stormers on Saturday.

The two defeats could be down to already having one eye on the Northampton match. But the defeats mean Leinster has lost the lead at the top of the United Rugby Championship table at a crucial time of the season.

Onward.

We're into the semi-finals of the #InvestecChampionsCup 🙌

😇 59 - 22 🐂 pic.twitter.com/eL9Y4rKBMX

— Northampton Saints 😇 (@SaintsRugby) April 13, 2024

Northampton booked their place in the last four with a 59-22 win over the Bulls. The Saints took full advantage of home-field conditions to win out convincing winners.

Since the win over the Bulls, Northampton have defeated Leicester 40-17 at home. They then lost 41-32 at Twickenham against Harlequins in their most recent outing last Saturday. Both matches were in the English Premiership.

A shot at redemption for the Saints

The fixture is a rematch of the memorable final played between the two teams in Cardiff in 2011. Leinster won the match 33-22. But it was a crazy fixture, with the Irish province completely outplayed in the first half and trailing 22-6.

A remarkable turnaround saw Leinster completely dominate the second half and score 27 unanswered points to win the trophy for a then second time. In 2011, Leinster were the heavy favorites. They are again in 2024.

Leinster vs. Northampton betting picks

The match is at Croke Park, home of Ireland’s Gaelic Games. Playing here brings extra incentive to Leinster, as it is the first time they will have played a home Champions Cup fixture at the iconic venue in 15 years.

Croke Park is the venue because the Aviva Stadium is unavailable due to preparations for the upcoming UEFA Europa League final.

The game sold out in hours. And with the vast majority of the 82,300 crowd going to be roaring on the home side, we can only see a comprehensive victory for Leinster.

And even given their recent road trip struggles, Leinster will thrive back in their home comforts.

They defeated the defending champions, La Rochelle - in Ireland - by 27 points in the last round. They only need to defeat Northampton by 14 to cover the spread. We say the home side will do this and make Leinster our pick to win the match and cover the spread.

Leinster (-13.5) To beat Northampton and Cover

-110

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