2024 MLB AL Cy Young Picks: Kevin Gausman primed to win first Cy Young

To get you ready for the new baseball season, we have to check out the latest odds on the American League Cy Young.

After the news about Gerritt Cole's injury was released, the AL Cy Young Odds got a lot more interesting.

Do not forget to check out our comprehensive MLB Prop betting page for expert insights on favorites, contenders, and longshots for every award this season.

2024 American League Cy Young Odds

2024 AL Cy Young Odds
Corbin Burnes	+400	+375	+800
Kevin Gausman	+750	+650	+650
Luis Castillo	+750	+950	+1000
Framber Valdez	+950	+1200	+800
Pablo Lopez	+1000	+1200	+1200
Tarik Skubal	+1000	+950	+900
George Kirby	+1100	+1000	+1400
Cole Ragans	+1200	+1000	+900
Grayson Rodriguez	+1400	+2000	+2000
Logan Gilbert	+1800	+2200	+2000
Shane Bieber	+2800	+2500	+3000

Corbin Burnes

Burnes is currently the favorite for the award as he embarks on his first season with the Baltimore Orioles.

As one of the few former Cy Young winners in the mix, Burnes presents an intriguing challenge to Gausman.

His NL Cy Young win in 2021 with the Milwaukee Brewers is a testament to his potential, though his performance has wavered in the past two years, with a 3.39 ERA in his final season in Milwaukee.

Despite this, Burnes led the NL with a 1.07 WHIP and remained in the top 10 in Cy Young votes for the fourth consecutive season.

With a move to pitcher-friendly Camden Yards, Burnes is expected to rebound in 2024.

Corbin Burnes To win AL Cy Young

+400

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Kevin Gausman

Following Gerritt Cole's injury news on Wednesday, March 13th, Gausman ascended as a top contender for the AL Cy Young award at two of our top sports betting apps.

Despite this, he's still listed at +750 odds on BetOnline, placing him as the second option on the board.

This is a significant oversight, considering the Blue Jays ace finished third in the Cy Young voting last year while leading the AL with an impressive 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a stellar 31.1% strikeout rate.

Kevin Gausman, Fastball/Splitter Overlays.

Filthy. pic.twitter.com/o3yyE1EiPU

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 25, 2024

Additionally, he topped the league in fWAR (5.3), even edging out Cole (5.2), with the second-best FIP (2.97) and SIERA (3.34) among qualified starters.

Gausman has consistently been in the top 10 in Cy Young voting for the past three years, showcasing his prowess as one of the game's best pitchers with his formidable splitter and relatively good health record.

While backing the favorite in a market prone to injuries is always a gamble, Gausman's credentials make him a strong contender and a worthy front-runner.

Kevin Gausman To win AL Cy Young

+750

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Framber Valdez

Last season, Framber faced some quality of contact issues, but he has a potent weapon to mitigate the damage: inducing ground balls.

This strategy ensures that hard-hit ground balls are still outs even if his expected ERA (xERA) appears higher.

Framber's sinker was hit more frequently last year, yet its velocity reached new heights at an average of 95.3 MPH. Additionally, his curveball, changeup, and cutter were all above-average pitches.

A notable bump in his 2023 ERA to 3.45 from the 2.82 ERA in 2022 can be attributed to a brutal stretch in July.

This month, he posted a 7.29 ERA over 21 innings before being sidelined with calf soreness.

However, his performance rebounded after July, maintaining a mid-3s ERA for the season. Metrics like FIP and xFIP suggest he performed better than his 3.45 ERA indicates.

Considering his strong track record and the odds at +950, Framber Valdez presents an enticing betting opportunity.

Framber Valdez To win AL Cy Young

+950

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Tarik Skubal

My pick for a surprise Cy Young contender this season is Tarik Skubal. While it might seem unexpected, his late-season performance in 2023 was nothing short of impressive.

In September, he boasted a 4-0 record with a remarkable 0.90 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 30 innings.

Tarik Skubal discusses his Bohemian Rhapsody Fastball.

"Mama, Tarik just killed a man." ⚰️🪦 pic.twitter.com/H6N0VAvAZI

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 26, 2024

Beyond his fantastic stats, Skubal possesses the kind of stuff that hints at ace potential.

Usually, I'd lean towards Gerrit Cole, a consistent favorite. However, with Cole sidelined for the start of the season, I'm taking a flyer on Skubal.

The pitching landscape has been rocky, with injuries affecting big names like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander getting off to a slow start.

Skubal, on the other hand, has been shining brightly.

Tarik Skubal To win AL Cy Young

+1000

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Grayson Rodriguez

I'd like to back Corbin Burnes for the AL Cy Young with the Orioles, but let's not overlook another bright spot in Baltimore's pitching rotation: Grayson Rodriguez.

The second-year pitcher had a rollercoaster rookie campaign in 2023, starting the season in the majors but then being sent down to the minors.

However, once Rodriguez rejoined the Orioles, he showed marked improvement and consistency on the mound.

Rodriguez returned strong after nearly two months away from the team from late May to mid-July.

In his last 13 starts, he didn't allow more than four earned runs and struck out at least five batters in 11 of those outings.

He also notched wins in five of his final eight regular-season starts. Despite some early struggles, which led to a 4.35 ERA and 1.34 WHIP for the season, Rodriguez showcased star potential as the year progressed.

The Orioles look like contenders in the AL this season, which bodes well for Rodriguez's win potential.

Additionally, with Bradish starting the season on the injured list, Rodriguez could be even more crucial to the team's success.

Grayson Rodriguez To win AL Cy Young

+1400

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