Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is set to appear in the fourth Super Bowl of his NFL career. That is…incredible. Especially when you consider this is just his sixth NFL season overall. Naturally, as perhaps the most valuable player in the league, and certainly one of the sport’s biggest names, the market for Patrick Mahomes prop bets in Super Bowl 58 is awash with tantalizing options. Let’s go ahead and tackle some, shall we?
- What: Super Bowl 58
- Matchup: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, February 11, 2024
- Time: 6:30 p.m. eastern standard time
- Where: Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada
- Point Spread: 49ers (-1.5), Chiefs (+1.5)
With so many online Super Bowl 58 prop betting lines at our disposal, it’s difficult to narrow down our favorite Patrick Mahomes prop bets. To start us off, though, here’s a look at some Super Bowl 58 alternative passing yards betting lines for Patrick Mahomes:
| Super Bowl 58 Prop Bet |  |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes 200+ Yards | -700 |
| Patrick Mahomes 225+ Yards | -330 |
| Patrick Mahomes 250+ Yards | -166 |
| Patrick Mahomes 275+ Yards | +120 |
| Patrick Mahomes 300+ Yards | +225 |
| Patrick Mahomes 325+ Yards | +390 |
As usual, please remember to double-check these online Super Bowl 58 betting lines right up until you submit your wager. Our Super Bowl 58 prop betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, January 31. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments—or even entirely remove wagers from the market—prior to opening kick-off on Sunday, February 11, at 6:30 p.m. EST.
Here’s One of Our Favorite Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets for Super Bowl 58
While we could bet a straight over or under outcome on Patrick Mahomes’ Super Bowl 58 passing yards, we’re opting for a potentially more lucrative route. The best online football betting sites will break it down by yardage type, and your return will vary based on the statistical block in which you invest. As a quick refresher, here’s the full list betting lines for Mahomes’ Super Bowl XLIII passing yards:
- 200+ passing yards (-700)
- 225+ passing yards (-330)
- 250+ passing yards (-166)
- 275+ passing yards (+120)
- 300+ passing yards (+225)
- 325+ passing yards (+390)
Though the San Francisco 49ers defense can be absolute hellfire, they are no stranger to giving up slack in the middle of the field. To that end, we aren’t prepared to bet on Patrick Mahomes finishing with fewer passing yards than his season average.
Entering Super Bowl 58, Kansas City’s signal caller is racking up about 258 passing yards per game—including during the playoffs. That’s lower than in years past, largely because of a shaky receiving core. But regardless, over 250 passing yards is our baseline.
Moving Mahomes’ total up another level or two from there is tempting. His career high for passing yards in the Super Bowl sits at 286 yards, a feat he achieved during the 2020 campaign. In 2021, he finished with 270 passing yards. And last year, in 2023, he tallied just 182 yards.
However, don’t let Super Bowl 57’s outcome influence your Patrick Mahomes prop bets this time around. The Chiefs limited his passing volume by design against the Philadelphia Eagles defense. That won’t happen this time around. San Francisco’s defense is daunting, but Kansas City needs to have the ball in Mahomes’ hands more than ever. For that reason, we wouldn’t be shocked if he notched a career high for Super Bowl passing yards and cleared 300. With that said, we’ll go slightly more conservatively. We expect him to reach the 275-yard marker for the second time in his Super Bowl history.
OSB Prediction: Patrick Mahomes throws for 275-plus passing yards in Super Bowl 58 (+120)
How Many Passing Touchdowns will Mahomes Have Against the 49ers Defense?
Oddsmakers, as it turns out, did not set the Patrick Mahomes prop betting lines for passing touchdowns very high:
- Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140)
- Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115)
Not surprisingly, the public action is heavily favoring the over on Mahomes’ Super Bowl passing touchdowns total. And, well, we can’t blame them.
To be sure, there is some risk here. Through 19 total games this season, Mahomes has finished with fewer than two passing touchdowns nine times. That’s nearly a 50 percent hit rate. He only had one passing touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens in the 2024 AFC Championship.
Still, we remain adamant that the Chiefs will saddle him with more volume against San Francisco’s defense. And if he’s letting ‘er rip 35 to 40 or more times for the game, it’s hard to see him finishing with under two passing touchdowns.
OSB Prediction: Patrick Mahomes will have over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140)
Should You Invest in Rushing Totals as One of Your Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets?
Mahomes is not the highest-volume rushing quarterback in the NFL. But that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from setting a line for his on-the-ground performance in Super Bowl 58:
- Over 25.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Under 25.5 rushing yards (-110)
The line for this Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bet feels high at first glance. But he has finished with 26 or more rushing yards 10 times through the playoffs and regular season. What’s more, he has topped 40 rushing yards in two of his past five games. And on top of that Patrick Mahomes had 44 rushing yards in the 2023 Super Bowl. In fact, Mahomes has actually surpassed 25 rushing yards in every single one of his Super Bowl appearances.
Far be it from us to predict he’ll buck the trend against the 49ers. They have a solid rushing defense, but Mahomes will invariably scramble for at least one double-digit run. And given how well his offensive line is protecting him—he’s been sacked just twice all playoffs—we don’t expect him to suffer many hits for a loss.
OSB Prediction: Patrick Mahomes will have over 25.5 rushing yards (-110)
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