Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction: Leaky Backline Indicates Over

Barcelona invites Villarreal to their temporary home of Lluis Companys Olympic Stadium for a traditional LaLiga fixture. Barcelona are fresh off the heels of their Copa del Rey match against Athletic Club, while Villarreal have had a week to rest. The Yellow Submarine are truly sinking in the table thanks to a whopping 42 goals conceded this season. Continue reading to access an expert Barcelona vs Villarreal prediction and explore stats and tips for Barcelona odds.

FC Barcelona vs Villarreal CF, LaLiga
January 27, 2024
12:30 PM EST
Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona, Spain
ESPN+

Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Barcelona face Villarreal in a match that is deemed to be in their favor according to the best online sportsbooks. Barca are (-300) favorites, indicating an implied winning probability of 75%. Villarreal are lined at (+735) to win, representing a price tag of a massive underdog. A draw pays out at (+505), a similarly low-likelihood outcome.

LaLiga
Barcelona	-300	-300	-305	-300	-300
Villarreal	+735	+735	+625	+735	+650
Draw	+505	+505	+500	+505	+500

Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our online soccer betting guide and learn about La Liga betting odds.

Villarreal Struggling to Defend

In the offensive aspect, Villarreal has exceeded expectations relative to their position in the league standings. Over the course of 21 games, they have scored 28 goals, resulting in an average of 1.33 goals per game. However, their defensive performance ranks as the second-worst in the league, with 42 goals conceded and only two clean sheets kept.

Villarreal's latest match was against Mallorca, where Alexander Sorloth found the net in added time of the first half, securing a 1-0 lead for Villarreal at halftime. However, after Pepe Reina received a red card and a 91st-minute equalizer from Javier Llabres, Villarreal had to settle for a 1-1 draw. Villarreal will continue to look to their three-headed attacking behemoth of Sorloth, Gerard Moreno, and Jose Luis Morales for some vital scoring against Barcelona.

Marcelino Garcia Toral will be without Ramon Terrats, Alfonso Pedraza, and Dani Parejo this weekend, and continues to cope with the prolonged absence of Yeremy Pino, recovering from ACL surgery. Additionally, keeper Pepe Reina will be suspended due to his red card.

Villarreal To Defeat Barcelona

+735

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Barcelona Recent Form and Injury Updates

While Barcelona has managed to secure the necessary victories to stay in the LaLiga title race, the journey has been far from smooth. Concerns among the Barca faithful have surfaced due to a series of narrow one-goal wins against notably weaker opponents, casting doubt on the team's overall performance. Notably, Barcelona has sealed victory by a slim one-goal margin in 11 out of their last 13 wins, a trend that persisted even in a match against fourth-tier UD Barbastro in the Round of 32 Copa del Rey encounter.

According to ESPN reports, Coach Xavi Hernández is reportedly facing challenges in retaining the support of the players, with a portion of the first-team squad losing faith in him even before the setback in the Spanish Super Cup final against Real Madrid. Xavi denies such allegations, stating that if there were discord, he would be aware of it. The future of Xavi with the club remains uncertain, but his track record is strong: 76 wins in 121 games, along with a Spanish Super Cup title and La Liga title in his first full season as the club's manager.

Barcelona To Defeat Villarreal

-305

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Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction and Free Betting Pick

This weekend, Xavi will be without the services of Gavi, Marcos Alonso, Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Inigo Martinez, and Raphinha, all sidelined due to injury. On a positive note, there is a possibility of Joao Cancelo and Andreas Christensen making a return to the lineup.

Barcelona supporters have seen both teams score in 11 out of their last dozen matches. In my last Barcelona prediction, I took the under, but immediately regretted doing so. Barcelona’s attacking woes appear to be coming to an end, and Betis played a game much more favorable to the over. I was high on Betis’s chances to slow the game down and make it ugly, but they failed to do so and even bizarrely opted for a higher-paced affair, only to their downfall.

Now back at home for the first time since December 21, Barcelona will be eager to put on a show for their patient supporters. Villarreal’s leaky defense will not hold against a world-class team packed with talent. However, I do think they have the propensity to score themselves. Barca have conceded twice in each of their last two games, and are now forced to play with jellied legs on a 3-day turnaround involving travel.

Over 3.5 total goals is a high number to cover, so I will opt for a separate market. BetUS is offering Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Total Goals - Yes at (-125). I think this number is more than fair and recommend a bet at a half unit. Sit back on Saturday and root for a fun game in LaLiga with both clubs finding a way behind their opposition’s keeper.

Yes Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Total Goals

-125

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Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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