Borussia Dortmund welcomes Paris Saint-Germain to the beautiful German land of Westphalia for a pivotal Champions League match. The fixture is their last of the group stage, with Dortmund having already booked their spot in the knockout rounds. PSG will be playing fiercely to secure their spot as well, with a win clinching their place. Continue reading for an expert Borussia Dortmund vs PSG prediction and explore the latest Dortmund vs PSG odds.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint-Germain FC, UEFA Champions League
- December 13, 2023
- 3 PM EST
- Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
- ViX, Fubo
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Odds: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Borussia Dortmund are the underdogs despite topping the table and playing as hosts on Wednesday. Prospective Dortmund bettors are looking at a price around (+286), good for an implied probability of just 25.9% to win. PSG are odds-on favorites at (-110). A draw is not a terrible outcome for either side, lined at (+315). Dortmund would be crowned winners of the “Group of Death,” while PSG would most likely earn a second-place finish, barring a lopsided victory from Newcastle or AC Milan.
To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our soccer betting tips and learn about Champions League betting odds.
Dortmund Excelling at the Westfalenstadion
In their previous encounter with the Ligue 1 champions PSG on Matchday 1, BVB suffered a significant defeat. Dortmund managed only one shot on target and generated a mere 0.66 expected goals (xG) compared to PSG's 2.44. Despite that initial setback, Dortmund has experienced a notable transformation in Europe. They have tightened their defense, conceding only one goal and maintaining an unbeaten streak in their last four Group F games, securing three wins and a draw.
Additionally, recent performances in the Champions League at the Westfalenstadion indicate that the Dortmund squad can start anticipating their celebration for securing the top spot. They've achieved an impressive feat by keeping clean sheets in each of their last four home games in the tournament, marking an all-time best for the club. They boast just one goal conceded in their last seven matches (comprising four wins and three draws) since their 3-1 loss to Ajax in November 2021.
Dortmund faces a setback for Wednesday's game as Emre Can, an experienced presence, is suspended due to accumulating three yellow cards in Group H. The club also might encounter a midfield dilemma if Marcel Sabitzer remains unfit with a calf issue, compounded by Felix Nmecha's absence due to a lingering hip problem.
There's hope for Marius Wolf's return from an ankle problem, presenting a timely opportunity, especially considering that Thomas Meunier isn't listed in Dortmund's UCL squad. However, Julian Ryerson, Youssoufa Moukoko, Sebastien Haller, and Julian Duranville remain unavailable.
PSG Hope to Prevent Ending on Wrong Side of History
Paris Saint-Germain will face the prospect of breaking an undesirable personal record on Wednesday. Les Parisiens have faced setbacks in their recent three away Champions League matches.
They suffered defeats against Milan and Newcastle this season, following their loss to Bayern Munich in the last 16 in 2022-23. In all these losses, they failed to score multiple times. PSG have never before experienced four consecutive losses in major European competitions while playing away.
Among all teams participating in this season's Champions League, PSG holds the longest ongoing streak without a clean sheet in away matches in the competition, spanning 15 games. Their most recent away clean sheet occurred under former BVB manager Thomas Tuchel in 2020, in a 2-0 victory against İstanbul Başakşehir.
As usual, Mbappé will carry a significant portion of PSG's attacking responsibilities. In his four previous Champions League starts against Dortmund, he's contributed to at least one goal each time, tallying four goals and one assist. Among the players facing Dortmund, only Cristiano Ronaldo has scored more against them in this competition. Given Mbappé's impressive track record against Dortmund, it's expected that the Germans will closely monitor and prioritize containing the French star.
Nuno Mendes, Presnel Kimpembe, Fabian Ruiz, Keylor Navas, and Sergio Rico remain in the Parisian infirmary. Fortunately, there haven't been any new injuries for PSG following the win over Nantes.
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Prediction and Free Betting Pick
This price for PSG is extremely high. They are getting priced like they are massive favorites if this were played in Paris or on neutral grounds, which should not be the case considering how PSG have played away recently. Even factoring in a lack of inspiration from Dortmund, who have already qualified for the last 16, should not bring us to this number.
Dortmund are more than capable of beating this PSG squad at home, even against Mbappe. Getting a result here clinches the group for them, offering a more advantageous opportunity in their following matchup. PSG were lucky to earn a draw against Newcastle, but should not be as lucky as to earn a victory against Borussia Dortmund on the road. Give me Dortmund to avoid defeat in Germany and clinch the top spot in this year’s Champions League “Group of Death.”
Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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