- Bowl: Isleta New Mexico Bowl
- Who: New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
- When: Saturday, December 16th, 4:25 ET
- Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Two teams, once annual rivals but meeting only for the second time in 15 years clash in the New Mexico Bowl, with New Mexico State being favored in the 2023 New Mexico Bowl betting odds.
New Mexico State is rebounding from a loss to Liberty in the Conference USA title game but turned heads with a notable victory over Auburn from the SEC. With an 8-1 record, Fresno State faced a setback in its last three games.
There will be no shortage of Online college football betting as the college football season enters its crucial stage, and every game becomes a high-stakes chess match.
Game Preview (Spread)
The college football betting lines initially favored New Mexico State by one point but have since shifted to a three-point advantage. The total is set at 51.5, up a full point from the opening number.
Noteworthy in the analysis of college bowl odds is that New Mexico State, among teams like Louisiana, UCLA, UTSA, and others, plays its bowl game in its home state.
The teams last met in 2019, with Fresno State winning 30-17, marking their first encounter in over a decade.
New Mexico State began the college football season as the sixth favorite to win the Conference USA title, while Fresno State ranked second, trailing only Boise State, in the odds of winning the Mountain West title.
Regarding NCAAF rankings, New Mexico State received a single vote in the latest American Football Coaches Association poll.
Aggies. Bulldogs.
Let's paint the town crimson, Aggie Nation.#AggieUp x #HHLP pic.twitter.com/hTDB58Nj6c
— New Mexico State Football (@NMStateFootball) December 3, 2023
After five seasons as an independent, New Mexico State notably impacted Conference USA with its lone conference loss against Liberty.
A significant improvement has been observed in the running game, with the Aggies elevating their average yards per carry from 4.6 to 5.8. This is a crucial factor in the 2023 New Mexico Bowl betting odds.
Quarterback Diego Pavia, playing in his hometown of Albuquerque, leads the team with 861 rushing yards, complemented by 2,915 passing yards and 26 touchdowns.
For New Mexico State, the return of receiver Jordan Smith after the Conference USA championship game is notable.
New Mexico State boasts a 10-1 record against the spread in college football odds in its last 11 games.
Fresno State's Mikey Keene is expected to play, but the team will be without key players like Cameron Lockridge, Damien Moore, Jacob Spomer, and Tyler Carr. Quarterback Logan Fife, linebacker Tanner Blount, and safety Chrishawn Gordon will also be on the field.
Defensive back Jeremiah Vessel, Randy Robinson, and linebacker Amari Pouncy have experienced varying degrees of absence while running back Larenzo McMillan hasn't played since the September 2 win over Western Illinois.
Fresno State initially thrived on its offense, boasting a 5-0 start where they limited opponents to an average of 282 yards per game and 93 rushing yards per game.
However, their defensive performance faltered in the subsequent seven games, where they allowed an average of 459 yards and 222 rushing yards, resulting in four losses.
This defensive shift is crucial to consider in evaluating the 2023 New Mexico Bowl betting odds.
A notable aspect contributing to this shift is Fresno State's turnover margin, standing at +13 in the eight wins but dropping to -3 in the four losses.
Their recent track record against the spread further emphasizes their inconsistency, as they are just 1-7 in their last eight games.
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Total Points
In their previous encounter in 2019, Fresno State secured a 30-17 victory, scoring the first 24 points as a 21-point road favorite.
However, the game fell under the 68-point total, and it marked the seventh time in the last eight meetings that the game landed under the total.
Fresno State aims to revitalize its running game, particularly after running back Malik Sherrod posted a season-high 138 yards in the regular season finale. The team also boasts five players with at least 35 catches in the NCAAF.
𝐁𝐎𝐖𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐆‼️
✈️ ABQ pic.twitter.com/7ODAn9PMvi
— Fresno State Football (@FresnoStateFB) December 3, 2023
On the defensive front, New Mexico State relies on a relatively young roster, with nine of their top 15 tacklers being either freshmen or sophomores. The impact of this inexperience remains uncertain in the upcoming NCAAF bowl matchup.
New Mexico State stands out among national leaders with a 10-3-1 record against the spread this season, while Fresno State has struggled with a 4-8 performance against the college football betting lines.
When predicting college football bowl outcomes, it's essential to note that nine of New Mexico State's last 12 games have concluded under the total.
The team is aiming to achieve back-to-back victories in college bowl games for the first time since winning the Sun Bowl in 1959 and 1960. The total for this game is set at 51.5.
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