People continue to wonder whether the Denver Broncos midseason turnaround is for real or a flash in the pan. Entering Week 14 of the 2023 NFL regular season, this doesn’t appear on the verge of changing.
Denver will be traveling to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, to take on the Los Angeles Chargers, on Sunday, December 10, at 4:25 p.m. eastern standard time. And just as it was in Week 13, the latest NFL online betting odds have the Broncos as underdogs:
Please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Chargers vs. Broncos Week 14 betting odds are accurate entering Friday, December 1. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on Sunday afternoon.
This is one of those games on which we’d expect to see a ton of movement. The outcome of Week 13 games will invariably impact the Bronco-Chargers moneyline odds. There’s even a chance the script entirely flips. If the Broncos pick up an underdog victory over the Houston Texans on the road, we’d guess Week 14 NFL betting odds end up favoring them.
Even without knowing what happens in Week 13, though, it’s fairly surprising that Denver isn’t closer to an even-money option against the Chargers. What gives? Is Los Angeles that dangerous? Is something else at play? Are linemakers simply reading too much into bigger-picture odds and standings in the AFC that don’t totally reflect how well the Broncos have been playing? Let’s get to the bottom of this conundrum together.
Should the Los Angeles Chargers Really be Favored to Take Down the Denver Broncos in Week 14?
At the moment, there’s no viable reason for the Chargers to be favored entering Week 14. Yes, the Broncos look like they’ll be without wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. And sure, they are dealing with some other injuries at the wideout position. But quarterback Russell Wilson still knows how to extend plays with his leg.
More than that, Denver’s defense is officially legit. Over their past six games, they’re allowing just 16.5 points. And this stretch has included matchups with top-tier offenses like those in Kansas City and Buffalo.
Really, if we’re being honest, it feels like this line is overstating the Broncos’ early-season struggles. Advanced metrics still don’t love them, because of how poorly they did to open up the schedule. And there is an inherent distrust in the offense.
Still, it’s not like the Chargers are world-beaters. They have struggled at home, and their passing defense might be the worst in the NFL.
OSB Prediction: Denver Broncos (+130)
Will Denver’s Run of Close Games Continue Against Los Angeles?
As you can see below, the Broncos at Chargers point spread betting odds pretty much mirror their moneylines:
- Los Angeles Chargers, -3 (-110)
- Denver Broncos, +3 (-110)
There is obviously no decision for us to make here. We’re betting on the Broncos to beat the Chargers outright in Week 14. However, if you’re a little more risk-averse, the Broncos point spread provides some cover.
Indeed, three points isn’t that much of a cushion. But entering their Week 13 matchup with the Texans, three of Denver’s past five games have been decided by fewer than three points.
That trend isn’t specific to facing teams with non-elite QBs, either. The Broncos have either hung around with or actively beaten Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. For our money, we’d still prefer to bet on the Broncos to beat the Chargers. But their spread is worth a look if you can’t bring yourself to feel the same way.
OSB Prediction: Denver Broncos, +3 (-110)
Can You Trust the Chargers Offense to Put Up Numbers Against the Broncos Defense?
This is suddenly a hard question to answer. Despite their crummy record, the Chargers are eighth in points scored per game. But they failed to eclipse 21 points in both Weeks 11 and 12, through which they scored a combined 30 points. And previously, Los Angeles mustered just 34 combined points against the defenses of the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Weeks 6 and 7, respectively.
At minimum, the takeaway is that the Chargers offense isn’t equipped to outpace the top defenses. And the Broncos, despite where they rank in points allowed per game, have been one of the best defenses for over a month. Even so, the latest Chargers vs. Broncos over/under betting lines don’t seem too concerned with this trend:
- Over 45.5 (-110)
- Under 45.5 (-110)
This line feels too high for us. The Broncos defense has not allowed 250 or more passing yards since Week 3. And the Chargers have scored more than 23 points just once over their past five games.
Granted, Los Angeles’ defense could pave the way for Denver to record a bunch of points. But they care more about controlling possession time. The Broncos are 29th in passing attempts on the year. If they’re up on the scoreboard, they’re going to run the football and try to drain the clock. It doesn’t matter whether the game’s close. They have by and large stuck to their principles no matter what this season.
To that end, just one Broncos game since Week 5 has finished with a final total north of 45 points. With the way their defense has been playing, we’re not about to predict this matchup with the Chargers will derail that streak. We’re going with the “under” here.
OSB Prediction: Under 45.5 (-110)
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