Greyhounds Set to Surprise in Northern Italy Duel vs Inter Milan

FC Internazionale Milano vs Bologna FC 1909, Serie A
October 7, 2023
9 AM EST
San Siro, Milan, Italy
Paramount+

Two Northern Italian clubs square off early this Saturday as Inter Milan faces Bologna. The Black and Blues will only enjoy a few days rest before this matchup. Can Bologna use the rest advantage to keep it close? Read on to explore stats on Inter Milan vs Bologna H2H, betting odds, and a free pick.

Inter Milan vs Bologna Prediction: Who do Bettors Think Will Win?

Inter Milan are huge favorites to win at home this weekend. Priced at (-250), sportsbooks put the team’s implied probability of securing the maximum haul at 71.4%. Bologna have a very small chance of pulling off an away upset at 12.3%, for odds of (+715). A draw, which Bologna has fought to in 3 of their last 4 matches, is lined up at (+425).

Serie A
Inter Milan	-260	-256	-250	-232	-256
Bologna	+715	+690	+600	+580	+690
Draw	+425	+405	+420	+370	+405

To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our tips for soccer betting.

Serie A and the Seven Sisters of Italian Soccer

Serie A is one of the world’s most historic, storied soccer leagues to ever exist. Clubs Juventus, AC Milan, and Inter Milan are all uber-famous juggernauts with reach across the globe. These teams, along with Lazio, Fiorentina, Roma and Napoli, make up what fans call the “Seven Sisters” of Italian soccer.

While games are competitive and there have been many instances of smaller teams succeeding in Serie A, these Seven Sisters usually reign supreme. The popularity, financial backing, historical relevance and player interest puts these teams in a strong position to succeed over their opponents. For example, Juventus, AC Milan and Inter Milan have won a combined 59% of all Serie A titles. Up until Napoli’s triumph last year, one of the three had won every league title since 2002.

Scoreless Draws a Common Result for Bologna

Bologna has yet to lose a match since falling to AC Milan in late August. The club has secured points in games against Juventus and Napoli, and come into this match fresh off a convincing 3-0 win. However, a closer look shows cause for concern on the offensive end as well as praise defensively.

In 3 straight matches, Bologna and their opponents walked away without a crooked number on the scoreline. Failing to score against Verona and Monza is indeed a concern, but at least their defense is holding up well. If Bologna don’t concede against Inter, it would mark their 5th straight shutout. Could another draw be in store this weekend?

Draw Inter Milan vs Bologna

+425

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Inter Milan in Midst of Champions League Run

Inter Milan defeated Portuguese side Benfica in the group stage of the Champions League on Wednesday. A 1-0 victory, off the heels of a 4-0 win in Serie A at Salernitana, has relaxed supporters. Fans were not happy with the club’s performance following a 2-1 defeat at San Siro to mid-table Sassuolo.

The 3-5-2 formation has boded well for the club as they look to dominate the midfield. Inter often takes early leads and is forced to play defense, so controlling possession is key to keeping opponents out of the match. Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku lead the offensive for the Milanese, while Yann Sommer defends the goal. Unfortunately, Stefano Sensi, Davide Frattesi and Marko Arnautovic will not be available for selection for Inter Milan manager Simone Inzaghi.

Inter Milan To Defeat Bologna

-250

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Inter Milan vs Bologna H2H and Expected Goals Statistics

Bologna have actually had the better of Inter in 2 of the last 3 editions of this fixture. Bologna secured 2-1 and 1-0 wins at home. However, in their last two trips to San Siro, they have been thrashed with identical 6-1 scorelines.

Inter’s advanced statistics indicate a side that may be getting lucky on both ends of the pitch. The club averages 2.71 goals scored per game this season, but have generated only 1.91 expected goals per game. Additionally, their expected goals exceed 1 goal per game, but they have been fortunate enough to average only 0.43 goals scored on them.

However, it should be noted that we are only 7 games into the season. Expected goals statistics can be potentially misleading in small sample sizes, and Inter Milan have been ahead in most of their games. Playing from behind gives teams more opportunity to rack up expected goals at an unreasonable rate compared to typical game flow.

Inter Milan vs Bologna Prediction and How to Bet Match

Simply put, there is little value betting on Inter Milan at these soccer betting odds. If you want to back the Black and Blues, looking at overs is probably the way to go. Another possibility is a win-to-nil punt, which would reduce the odds further with the hope that Bologna's scoring woes return.

Personally, I am looking to back Bologna here. They are the much more rested side and are coming off a morale-boosting victory. This club feels like they belong at the top after securing points vs Napoli and should see an opportunity still in a match vs Inter Milan. Additionally, the advanced stats are on our side, with Inter being potentially fortunate in terms of actual goals to expected goals.

I will trust my money on Bologna to keep the game close by betting on the Asian handicap at +1.5.

Bologna +1.5 vs Inter Milan

-130

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