Best UFC Vegas 76 Bets: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov Picks

Another weekend, another big opportunity to make money betting on UFC. This weekend’s card features a doozy of a main event between Strickland and Magomedov. You know we have free UFC betting picks on it, plus other fights on the card. Keep reading for our expert advice!

What: UFC Vegas 76
When: Saturday, July 1
Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada

Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov

The main event goes down in the middleweight class. Currently, Strickland is the slight -175 betting favorite across the best betting sites for UFC. But rather than going down the moneyline, we’ll be taking on the Strickland-Magomedov over/under. It’s at 3.5 rounds and here’s how it shakes out:

Outcome
Over 3.5 rounds	-140	-140	-140
Under 3.5 rounds	+110	+110	+110

Strickland certainly is the name attraction here. The top-10-ranked middleweight has been a fixture in the division for multiple years now. However, Strickland has lost to the top-caliber fighters — Alex Pereira and Jared Cannonier — and is stuck at the good, but not great tier of middleweights. Still, he has the big-level experience that Magomedov doesn't. This will mark only the second fight in the UFC for Magomedov.

Here’s what those unaware of Magomedov should be aware of: Magomedov is a much more balanced fighter than Strickland. In his only UFC fight, he demolished Dustin Stoltzfus with a first-round KO. It was all striking from Magomedov that night, but given the last name and he’s born in Dagestan (but fights out of Germany) you know he’s a capable wrestler too. This is a "prove it" fight for Magomedov. On paper, he looks good but Strickland is another caliber in completion too.

Strickland won’t hold a lick to him if this fight goes to the ground, but standing up is his big advantage. You can almost guarantee Strickland will be throwing a barrage of punches. How Magomedov handles that volume could be the X-factor. Regardless, we think this goes the distance. Either Strickland’s output wears out Magomedov over five rounds or Magomedov does the same only with wrestling. Either way, we got the judges deciding who wins this one.

Over 3.5 rounds in Strickland vs. Magomedov fight

-140

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Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson Betting Pick

Here’s a lightweight match we’re dying to see. Why? Because it’s the most evenly-matched fight of the whole night. Both fighters are outside of the top-10 rankings, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see one of ‘em in the title mix over the next two years. This fight is close enough that bookies have set the Ismagulov-Dawson moneyline odds at pick em:

Fighter
Damir Ismagulov	-110	-110	-110
Grant Dawson	-110	-110	-110

Ismagulov would likely be the betting favorite had he not lost last time out to Arman Tsarukyan. He had been on a 19-fight winning streak and looked like a sure-fire title contender. Then Tsarukyan made him look silly with seven successful takedowns en route to a decision victory.

That’s problematic because Dawson is also a wrestler. Is he as good as Tsarukyan at wrestling? Probably not, but he’s not that far behind. Dawson averages 3.8 takedowns per fight in the UFC. If he could do something similar in this one, he’ll be tough to beat. So yes, Dawson is the pick to make. He’s got 13 submission victories over his career and it might become 14 by the end of it.

Grant Dawson to beat Damir Ismagulov

-110

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Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales Betting Pick

Here’s classic UFC bookmaking — an aging veteran (Griffin) versus a young prospect with big potential (Morales). Per usual with these types of fights, the prospect is expected to win as Morales is a convincing -245 favorite. Here are the full betting odds:

Fighter
Michael Morales	-245	-245	-245
Max Griffin	+195	+195	+195

What casual bettors need to know about Morales is he’s 14-0 with a unique mix of skills. The Ecuadorean won championships in both wrestling and Muy Thai background in his native country. In two UFC fights, he’s scored consecutive KO victories. Many are penciling in this kid as the “next big thing” but still, he’s largely unproven at this level.

In Griffin, Morales is getting the biggest test of his career. The 37-year-old Griffin can bang when standing up, landing 4.33 strikes per minute. He’s been with the UFC since 2016 so the experience will certainly be in his favor. But our money is still going to Morales. We’re buying his hype and expect him to put on a show here with a statement win.

Michael Morales to beat Max Griffin

-245

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How To Bet On UFC Vegas 76

UFC betting doesn’t get much better than one of the underneath bookmakers. Any one of them will offer every type of bet you can imagine for the upcoming card (plus others on the horizon like UFC 290). There are a dozen fights to gamble on when you account for prelims so the UFC Vegas 76 bet opportunities are far and wide this Saturday.

The best part of all? You could even gamble for free. That is if you leverage a lucrative promotional bonus. Our favorite deals are listed in the table. As you can see, free-play earnings range from $500 to $2500. Even on the low side, that’s a whole lot of money to take on UFC betting. Click one of the links below to get started betting for free!