Even the most devout mixed martial arts fans can have a tough time capitalizing on UFC Fight Night betting. Some matchups are high profile—usually the main event, along with another one or two. But the rest of the fight card can be more niche, a collection of up-and-comers or established grapplers down on their luck. Without question, this complicates just how exactly you go about identifying the best UFC fight night bets.
Of course, this layer of uncertainty is also part of the fun. Fight nights aren't as prevalent throughout the online UFC betting scene, which allows you the opportunity to take your time when studying matchups, without having to worry about the odds changing all that much. And because sportsbooks are limited in their own knowledge for many of the participating names, UFC Fight Nights are also a fantastic chance to mine excellent value from oddsmakers.
This is an approach we'll be embracing ahead of the next UFC Fight Night on October 1. What's more, this particular card differs from other non-pay-per-view events because it includes a handful of premier matchups with familiar faces.
Mackenzie Dern will take on Yan Xiaonan in the headlining battle, and we'll be treated to a showdown between Sodiq Yusuf and Don Shainis. Beyond that, we also get to bet on fights between Randy Brown and Francis Trinaldo, Raoni Barcelos and Trevin Jones, John Castaneda and Daniel Santos and then Mike Davis vs. Viacheslav Borshchev.
Are we really about to deliver Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xianonan picks and UFC Fight Night betting predictions for each of the five other matches? You bet we are. But first, here's a look at the latest UFC Fight Night betting odds, courtesy of BetOnline:
| Favorite |  | | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | -210 | +176 | Yan Xiaonan |
| Randy Brown | -290 | +235 | Francis Trinaldo |
| Raoni Barcelos | -196 | +164 | Trevin Jones |
| Sodiq Yusuf | -720 | +520 | Don Shainis |
| John Castaneda | -210 | +176 | Daniel Santos |
| Mike Davis | -210 | +176 | Viacheslav Borshchev |
As always, remember to double-check these odds on the UFC before actually submitting your picks. As we already mentioned, UFC Fight Night odds won't shift too dramatically, but ours are accurate entering Friday, September 23, so they have plenty of time to undergo slight changes.
Lastly, for anyone still trying to find a home for all of their UFC betting, we encourage you to pore over our reviews of the top online sportsbooks, as well as our collection of the best betting apps for UFC. As you'll come to see from our extensive evaluations and the various promotional bonuses, you can't go wrong when signing up with any one of the reputable sites we dig into.
Enough chitchat, though. Let's get to our UFC Fight Night predictions!
Mackenzie Dern will Deliver Yan Xiaonan a Third Straight Loss
Yan Xiaonan looms as an interesting upset pick if you think she can rebound from her two previous losses, the most recent of which took place at UFC 272. We just can't get there.
Xiaonan has not displayed her usual blend of agility and precision with her strikes, and her lateral mobility has looked all sorts of off.
Mackenzie Dern isn't someone who wins in the cleanest fashion, but she does know how to win all the same, as her 12-2-0 record can attest. She's the easy pick here.
OSB Prediction: Mackenzie Dern (-210)
Does Randy Brown Deserve to be Heavy UFC Fight Night Favorite vs. Francis Trinaldo?
Randy Brown may have some trouble cracking Francis Trinaldo's vertical defense. The latter is warding off 60 percent of all opponent strike attempts.
Still, Brown has the edge in both power and precision when it comes to striking. He is also the more accomplished one-move finisher. In particular, his rear naked choke hold and triangle choke hold have earned him a handful of impressive submissions.
OSB Prediction: Randy Brown (-290)
Raoni Barcelos is Still Offering Great Value vs. Trevin Jones
We are genuinely shocked that Raoni Barcelos isn't a heavier favorite in this one. He is landing nearly six significant strikes per minute at a 51 percent clip while also preventing 61 percent of his opponent strike attempts and a ridiculous 92 percent of his opponent takedown attempts.
This is not a functional package to which Trevin Jones can stand up. Some will be concerned that Barcelos is working off two straight losses, but this matchup feels like a tune-up head-to-head for him.
OSB Prediction: Raoni Barcelos (-196)
Sodiq Yusuf will Dominate UFC Fight Night Matchup with Don Shainis
Anybody else love easy decisions? Because that's just what we have in Sodiq Yusuf vs. Don Shainis.
Yusuf has Shainis beat in just about every area of the octagon. He isn't the most accomplished wrestler, but Shainis is even worse. The two aren't even close when looking at their striking combinations; Yusuf wields more thrust and variety by a landslide.
Frankly, we're not expecting this match to even reach a decision.
OSB Prediction: Sodiq Yusuf (-720)
Daniel Santos Doesn't have the Striking Poise to Hand with John Castaneda
Daniel Santos has turned a lot of heads with his ability to derail takedown attempts and escape difficult wrestling holds. However, he has a lot of work to do on his offense. Not only is he a touch slow on his striking combinations, but he's prone to leaving his body open to massive blows after missing his own shots.
John Castaneda is the type of fighter who will make Santos pay for those mistakes we just outlined. As it stands, Castaneda is landing nearly 4.40 significant strikes per minute, and he's no stranger to winning by knockout.
OSB Prediction: John Castaneda (-210)
Bet on Mike Davis Picking Up a UFC Fight Night Win vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Brace yourself. We're about to predict a clean sweep for all the favorites at UFC Fight Night.
Viacheslav Borshchev champions a style that's a little too slow for us to invest in an upset. He's connecting on 63 percent of his strikes, but he attempts under six per minute.
Conversely, Mike Davis is landing a mind-melting 6.24 significant strikes per minute. There are matches in which he winds up compromising his footwork and positioning with unnecessary risks, but those gaffes are only detrimental against fighters with the processing speed to capitalize on them. Borshchev is not one of those fighters.
OSB Prediction: Mike Davis (-210)
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