Boxing Picks: Michael Conlan vs Miguel Marriaga

• Date & Location: Saturday, August 6th at SSE Arena in Belfast, Northern Ireland.
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: ESPN+

SSE Arena in Belfast will be the scene on Saturday as Irishman Michael Conlan takes on fellow featherweight Miguel Marriaga. This will be a homecoming for Conlan, who grew up in Belfast. He last fought in March when he was shockingly knocked out in the 12th round of the WBC title fight by Leigh Wood. As for Marriaga, he hasn't stepped in the ring since last December, losing to Eduardo Ramirez in Los Angeles via unanimous decision. The Colombian is 2-2 in his last four bouts. Keep reading for the Conlan vs Marriaga picks.

Before we get into the odds and predictions for this fight, check out the best boxing betting sites and where you can find the best online sportsbooks.

Michael Conlan vs Miguel Marriaga Odds

Fighters
Michael Conlan	-1100
Miguel Marriaga	+675

Conlan vs Marriaga Preview

As you can see, Conlan is a heavy -1100 favorite to win Saturday's fight. He owns a career record of 16-1 with eight knockouts. Conlan, who won a bronze at the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, turned professional in 2017, and just two years later, Conlan went on to win three fights, beating Ruben Hernandez, Diego Alberto Ruiz, and Vladimir Nikitin at Madison Square Garden, getting revenge from his defeat to the Russian at the Olympics. Conlan then followed that up with a interim featherweight title fight victory over T.J. Doheny in 2021 and it honestly looked like he'd be capturing the regular WBC belt in March against Leigh Wood. Conlan dominated most of the fight and landed 171 total punches to just 135 for Wood. Conlan also landed 80 body shots and nearly knocked out his opponent earlier in the bout. But in the 12th round, disaster struck for the Ireland native, getting knocked out and falling clean out of the ring to lose his chance to become champ. Conlan certainly has something to prove here as he looks to bounce back with a win after a very disappointing finish to his last fight. He could be the best bet in the Conlan vs Marriaga picks.

Marriaga is certainly the more experienced fighter but not exactly the more skilled. The Colombian became a pro way back in 2009, posting a record of 30-5 with an impressive 26 knockouts in the process. The 5'8" fighter is a WBC Continental Americas featherweight champion and has competed for the featherweight title on numerous occasions. In 2017 he had the opportunity to capture the WBO featherweight title and junior-lightweight title, but he fell short, losing to Oscar Valdez and Vasiliy Lomachenko. After that, however, Marriaga won four bouts in a row, including a KO of Alfredo Vargas in late 2019. In his most recent outing, Marriaga didn't fare well against Eduardo Ramirez in December of 2021 in sunny LA. He ended up losing via UD in 10 rounds, falling in every single round on the scorecard but the first. Marriaga came out hot and landed some early shots, but Ramirez kept his composure and dominated moving forward, landing 36.7% of his punches to just 21.3% for Marriaga. Despite heading into the twilight years of his career, Marriaga is still a very dangerous fighter and capable of something special. There is a reason he has 28 knockouts.

March was Conlan's first career loss and I really don't see him faltering at home in front of the Belfast faithful. But, Marriaga is a very tough fighter to knockout. I'm liking Conlan to win by decision in the Conlan vs Marriaga picks. It offers more value than the steep -1100 moneyline.

Michael Conlan To win by decision

-265

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Over/Under Value

Another prop to keep an eye on is the over/under in rounds. It currently sits at 8.5 with the over at -460, while the under is at +285. Clearly, the sportsbooks believe this fight will go close to the distance. After all, these are two very strong, gritty boxers who don't go down easily. Yes, Marriaga is older, but he's a true warrior. The Colombian has also fought against some of the best in the sport. This is a tough opponent for Conlan and that's why I'm liking the over in rounds here. However, the -460 offers little to no value. That being said, I'm looking at Conlan to win in rounds 9-10 where the odds are at +1000. Yes, it feels a bit risky, but just $10 would get you a $100 return. Expect this to be an absolute battle in Northern Ireland but the youngster will prove his worth and beat the veteran in a marathon of a fight, finishing off the bout just before the 12th round in the Conlan vs Marriaga picks.

Michael Conlan To win in rounds 9-10

+1000

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